Title: Evolution of Cities, Suburbs and the Countryside in the 21st Century
1Evolution of Cities, Suburbs and the Countryside
in the 21st Century
- Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Developer
Conference Presidential Fellow, Chapman
University - Washington , DC September 12, 2007
2The Human Challenge
- For Gods Eden,he substitutes his own
Jacques Ellul, French theologian
3The Urban Challenge
- City growth and sprawl have detached urbanities
and suburbanites from natural world - Sprawl a natural reaction to industrial paradigm
and represented an attempt to recapture this
connection - Bringing Parks, Gardens to cities, older suburbs
and new development relieves this pressure,
creates a healthier relationship between
geography and community
4Historical Overview The Creation of Cities
- Places Sacred, Safe and Busy
- Priority given to Temples, Walls and Places of
Commerce - The World was natural, and the city covered only
a tiny part of it - As cities grew, the need for reminding people
of nature grew - Line between city and country blurs
- Protecting nature now becomes a key element in
urban restoration and growth
5The Key to the first Great City
- The Greeks boasted of their useless art
and Egypts legacy lay in idle pyramids , but
what were these compared to the fourteen
aqueducts that brought water to Rome? - A Roman Historian Frontinus Ist Century AD
6The Islamic City
- Out of desert culture, Arabs developed the idea
of the walled garden - Islam thinks of urban ideal as celestial garden
- Merged with more ancient Mesopotamian and Persian
notions, largely in Palace Gardens
7Delhi in 16th and 17th Centuries
- a Garden of Eden that is populated
8Urbanization in Demographic Terms
- Urban areas accounted for a small proportion of
population before modern times - Heavily urbanized regions, such as Western Europe
and Japan, reached 15 urban by 17th Century - By 17th Century, Holland 45 urban
- In US, urban population rose from 5 in 1800 to
about 50 in 1920 - 80 of Americans now live in cities or suburbs
9The Crisis of the Industrial City
- Cities grow with enormous rapidity
- Industrialization makes pollution and other
health hazards critical - Middle Class and aristocrats look for a way out
- Working Class dissatisfaction rises
10Urban Disaster
- The cottages are very small, old and dirty,
while the streets are uneven, party unpaved, not
properly drained and full of ruts. Heaps of
refuse, offal and sickening filth are everywhere
interspersed with pools of stagnant liquid. The
atmosphere is polluted by the stench and is
darkened by the smoke of a dozen factory
chimneys.
Frederick Engelson Manchester in 1844
11Victorian Industrial City
12Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically
Urban Land Use 1400-1850 Square meters/Person
13Bringing Order and Nature Paris
- Let us open new streets, let us clean up the
populous streets that lack air and daylight. Let
the beneficial light of the sun everywhere
penetrate our walls. - Napoleon III,1850
14 Haussmanns Paris
15The British Alternative The Garden City
- Town and country must be married and out of this
joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life,
a new civilization.
Ebenezer Howard
16Progressive Reform
- Reformers in Britain, US, Germany and other
industrial countries develop new sanitation
systems - Development of parks in cities, notably Londons
Green Park, Hyde Park, New Yorks Central Park
and St. Louis Forest Park - Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to
bring people to the countryside
17Basic Long-term Trendsin Americas Metropolitan
Areas
- Population Growth surges, heads to the periphery
- Both immigrants and domestic migrants lead the
trend - Economic de-clustering to suburbs, exurbs and
beyond - Green and social elements critical in next wave
of development
18More Crowding to Come US Population Growth
1960-2050
Source Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
19In 2030, about half of the buildings in which
Americans live, work, and shop will have been
built after 2000.
58.9
25.7
6.4
Northeast
West
Total
Midwest
South
Source Toward a New Metropolis The Opportunity
to Rebuild America, p.v
20Minorities Drive the Next 100 Million
Source McLeod (1996)
21U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, Rural
Areas
Millions
1950-1999
People (millions)
22Growth City vs. Suburb
US Metropolitan Central City Population
2000-2005
Demographia
23Seeking Smaller Places Domestic Migrationby
Population of Area 2000-2004
Millions
24Declustering A Global Perspective
Percentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000
Source Demographia
25In Most of the US the Single Family Home
Predominated as The Universal Aspiration
- The suburban house is the idealization of
every immigrants dream--- the vassals dream of
his own castle. Europeans who come here are
delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an
apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own
your own home.
Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini
26Where Americans Would Like To Live
Fannie Mae, 1998
27 What People Want There are small specialized
niches and larger ones
- 83 percent want this kind of dwelling (National
Association of Home Builders) - 86 percent in California (PPIC)
- 70 or more of downshifting boomers retiring in
place or staying suburban study - About as many empty nesters heading to
countryside as headed to city - 40 expect kids to move back at some point
- Latinos highest percentage ethnicity to prefer
single family homemost immigrants now in suburbs - Focus suburbs,exurbs, safe neighborhoods in
closer, attractive areas
28Big Rural Opportunity How We Live and Want to
Live
- Where we live now 16 in rural or micropolitan
areas
35 want to live in the country
Sources Bill Frey, 2004 American Community Survey
29Jobs Head out
Percentage of Metropolitan area employment
Source Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and
Chenghuan Chu, Job Sprawl Employment in US
Metropolitan Areas, Brookings Center on Urban
and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001
30Central City Suburban Office SpaceDevelopment,
1986-99
Millions of Square Feet
100
Downtown
Suburban
80
60
40
20
0
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
Source Milken Institute
31National Office Construction
Sq. Ft. x Millions
Source cbre
32Technology The Great Equalizer?
- New Technology could telescope the distance
between communities - Younger workers can now choose affordable
lifestyle and still stay in less dense areas - Technology helps tie smaller communities
directly to other global and US metropolitan
markets
33The Ephemeral City The Future of the Core?
a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of
concourse and rendezvous.
H.G. Wells description of urban centers in the
future
34Cities without Children
Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S.
Cities
35Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities A Model for
Atlanta?
Poor but sexy."
- Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin
A cross between Carmel and Calcutta
Kevin Starr on San Francisco
36Identifying Next Growth Regions
- No simple formula and there are almost always
exceptions to every rule - Affordability seems to be the big driver as a
result of massive shift in property prices - Movement of educated and immigrants may prove
canaries in the coal mine for the next
generation - Shift from superstar to opportunity regions
37Regional Metropolitan Populations,
Growth Rate 1960-2000
source U.S. Census data tabulated by
demographia.com
38MSA Population Growth, 2000-2005
Source U.S. Census Population Estimates Program
39Cumulative Net Domestic Migration
1995-2000 2000-2005
Source 1995-2000 U.S. Census 2000 PUMS
2000-2005 U.S. Census Population Estimates
Program
40Domestic Migration Rate vs. Immigration Rate
2000-2005
Source U.S. Census Population Estimates Program
41Job Growth Over Past 15 Years Helps to Identify
Opportunity Areas
Non-farm Job Growth, Selected MSAs, 1990 - 2006
Las Vegas
Boise
Phoenix
Riverside-San Bernardino
Charlotte
Atlanta
Dallas-Fort Worth
San Diego
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Chicago
San Francisco Bay Area
Boston
Los Angeles - Orange
New York City
Detroit
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Source BLS Data, Smoothed 3rd quarter average
data, various years.
42Growth in Professional Business Services
43Ratio of Median Home Price Growth to Average
Annual Pay Growth, 2001-2005
Source National Association of Realtors and U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
44Affordability Index Between Leading Dynamic
Regions
(median price for median family)
Source National Association of Homebuilders
45Migration of Educated Workers 1995-2005
Net Domestic Migration of College Educated,
Number of Migrants per 1,000 total
Population,1995-2000 and 2004-2005
46The Archipelago of Villages Everyplace a City
- Housing near jobs
- Emphasis on families
- Strong role for village shopping streets and
markets - Provision of open space around the village core
and housing estates- - Solving the problem of sprawl within the Sprawl
47Visions of Suburbia
- The brain dead land of Desperate Housewives
- A new kind of sprawling dystopia
- What people want, a place that can adapt to change
48(Sub)Urban Villages A New Vision to encourage
economic growth
- Walkable environments with shopping and work
opportunities - A sense of neighborhood and place
- Greater access to public transit
- A way to be within a great metropolitan area but
with the ambience, amenity of a small town - A partner to single family homes, not a threat
49Density is coming naturally Metro Phoenix
Density (1975-2000)
50Building the Post-Industrial Community
- Housing by itself does not accomplish very
much, its not a panacea.
Robert Simon, 1966, Founder of Reston, Virginia
51Examples of New Suburban Villages
- Downtown Fullerton
- Naperville, Illinois
- Woodlands, TX
52A Key Component Bringing Culture to the Burbs
53Recovering the Sacred Place
54Building a Green Urbanism
- Create greenways based on water features of
region - Use multi-polar structure to create an
archipelago of villages - Address middle class flight and keep families
around by improving environmental quality
55Rethinking Density on Environmental Grounds
- Low/mid-density using proper design and
landscaping may use less water and energy - Reducing heat islands overdense development
in London and Los Angeles can lead to urban
centers being 3C higher than outlying areas - Learning from mideastern ancient cities like
Shiraz in how to design largely low-rise housing
to maximize natural cooling and reduce evaporation
56Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling
Type
Tonnes CO2/Person/Year
Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year
Institute of Public Affairs
57The Big Trend Digital Impact
Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000
Source US Decennial Census
58The Valencia, California, Survey 2001
Would you take a pay cut to work in the
immediate area where you live?50 of workers
said they would take a20 pay cut to a take a
job in their local area.
Source The Newhall Land Company
59What We Lost the Pre-industrial City
- The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution
administered to the Western family was the
progressive removal of work from the home.
Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian
60Back to the Future The Post-Industrial City
- If the electronic cottage was to spread, a
chain of consequences of great importance would
flow through society. Many of these consequences
would please the most ardent environmentalist or
techno-rebel, while at the same time opening up
new options for business entrepreneurship
Alvin Toffler,The Third Wave
61Questions and Comment