Water supply procedures annual

1
CBRFC Water Supply Training Chapter II

• Water supply procedures (annual first of
  month)
• Basin water supply procedure documentation
  material (what works best)
• Data gathering, processing, posting, and SHEF
• Coordination with NRCS WFOs
• Water Supply Products (dissemination, content,
  and consistency)

2
Autumn / Off-Season (Annual Checklist)

• Review data requirements of SWS Modify/Adjust
  equations as necessary
• Review data requirements with Service
  Hydrologists, Agencies
• Obtain historical data / previous year - (in
  support of equations, publications, etc.)
• Review previous years runoff (verification
  tools, NRCS contact, etc.) ? success / fail
• Coordinate with users / customers regarding
  forecast needs
• Verify input / driver files are updated and in
  the common directory
• Verify disseminated products ( ESG / ESP / etc.)
  are in common directory
• Review NWSRFS segments prior to gages freezing
  (baseflow simulations on track?)
• Review new soil moisture output (text-maps)

3
Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

• Data Acquisition / Posting / QC
• Forecast Development
• Product Development
• Product/Information Dissemination

4
Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

• Data Acquisition / Posting / QC

5
Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

• Forecast Development

6
Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

• Product Development

7
Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

• Product / Information Dissemination

8
Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

• Other

9
Basin Water Supply Reference Documentation

• Hardcopy ( online?)
• What type of information should be included?
• List of forecast points / associated PED
  (qadjust)
• Data sources contact information
• Primary flow data (usgs, bor, dwb, other
  agencies, database calculation)
• Diversion data (utilized in qadjust)
• Reservoir Storage (BOR, SRP, CAP, CUWCD, NRCS,
  etc.)
• Inputs requirements for forecast procedures
  (non-automated SOI, etc.)
• Unique specific forecast point information
  (regulated forecast, alternate period)
• Unique forecasts products required in the basin
  (associated procedures)
• Special seasonal flow requirements / studies
  (week-week-2 week)
• Special reservoir management (intermittent or
  seasonal)
• Basin customers and communication requirements
• References for ESP / ESG narratives
• Forecast distribution requirements
• Peak flow forecast points / procedures /
  requirements / distribution

10
Basin Water Supply Reference Documentation
Example (forecast pts, diversion requirements,
sources, etc.)
11
Basin Water Supply Reference Documentation
Example (forecast points and adjustments)
12
Example (special reservoir management forecast)
SLCESPUT COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY
UTAH The 6 to 10 day forecast is a National
Weather Service forecast productprovided by the
National Center for Environmental Prediction.6
TO 10 DAY FORECAST APRIL 3 TO APRIL 7 2004 ISSUED
MARCH 28AREA PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATUREN UTAH Below normal
Near normal RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT FORECAST
FOR MARCH 30, 2004The following are regulated
(observed) values and are based on forecast
temperatures 10 days into the future and
precipitation3 days into the future. Beyond
those time periods climatology or"normals" are
used.Vol is volume in 1000'S of acre-feet
(kaf).Peak is maximum mean daily peak in cubic
feet per second (cfs).___________________________
_____________________________________LITTLE
BEAR NR PARADISE This is an inflow forecast for
Hyrum Res.
FORECASTS WEEK 1 WEEK 2
WEEKS 3 AND 4 03/30 - 04/06
04/06 - 04/13 04/13 - 04/27 Vol
Peak Vol Peak Vol
Peak 1.4 130 1.5 140
5.2 320 THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE
ISSUED APRIL 1, 2004
13
Example (seasonal weekly peak flow/reservoir
management forecast)
SLCESPCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY
UTAHThe 6 to 10 day forecast is a National
Weather Service forecast productprovided by the
National Center for Environmental Prediction.6
TO 10 DAY FORCAST April 30 TO May 04 2006 ISSUED
April 24AREA PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURESW WYOMING Near normal
Above NormalE UTAH Near
normal Above Normal W COLORADO
Near normal Above normalRESERVOIR
MANAGEMENT FORECAST FOR April 24, 2006The
following are regulated (observed) values and are
based on forecast temperatures 10 days into the
future and precipitation5 days into the future
from meteorlogical models. Beyond those time
periods climatology or "normals" are used.Vol
is volume in 1000'S of acre-feet (kaf).Peak is
maximum mean daily peak in cubic feet per second
(cfs).___________________________________________
_____________________YAMPA AT DEERLODGE PARK
At this time the most probable seasonalpeak (50
exceedance value) is expected between 14000 and
17000 mean daily CFS and will occur between
early and late May. Meteorological models are
starting to indicate a moderate tostrong ridge
and warming possible the first week of May. This
could push the Peak to occur during the first 2
weeks of May.
FORECASTSEXCEEDANCE 90 75
MP(50) 25 10SEASONAL 12000
13000 14900 17100 200004/24 - 5/01
8000 9600 10500 11500
120005/01 - 5/08 8500 8900
11500 12500 160005/08 - 5/15
9300 11500 12100 13500 149005/15 -
5/22 12000 13000 14900 17100
20000MP Most Probable (50 exceedance
probability) THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON
April 26th, 2006
14
CBRFC Water Supply Products
A methodology has been developed over time out
of best practices, user feedback, NWS policies,
and available resources.

• Products / Guidance
• What is issued / Who issues / When is it issued
• Product Dissemination (How is it issued)
• RFC AWIPS products to support WFOs / WFO
  Products
• RFC products in support of specific customers
• Product Content
• Consistency of content among product types /
  w.s. forecasters
• Pertinent information
• Guidelines and best practices (the late Jeff
  Smith)
• Narrative reviews
• Coordination requirements between focal points
  (first of month)
• Archiving Products / Guidance
• RFC AWIPS Products
• Non-AWIPS format products (email dist., etc.)
• Opportunities exist for improvement / enhancement

15
Water Supply Products / Guidance / Dissemination
Monthly Products
Online publications Extended-Range Streamflow
Prediction Product (ESP) - Supply Extended-Range
Streamflow Guidance (ESG) Peaks / Flood Online
peak flow publication Westwide files to
NRCS Files in support of Western Water Supply page
Bi-Monthly Products (mid-month)
Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Products
(ESP) - Supply
Weekly Products
Reservoir management forecasts (ESP or
ESG) Online peak flow publication updates
Intermittent (As needed) Products
On the fly updates to any of the above
forecasts Special, customer specific, reservoir
management / peak flow forecasts (ESP or
ESG) Nationally scheduled ESG dissemination dates
(required to support WFO) Email communicated
forecasts / updates
All products should be copied to the common
output directory
16
Products Routinely Issued by Water Supply Focal
Points
ESP Water Supply Oriented Products
SLCESPSTR Upper Colorado Unregulated
Reservoir Forecasts
Issued First of month mid month year
round Issued by Upper Colorado Focal Point
SLCESPAZ Reservoir Management Forecast
(Lake Mead intervening flow tributaries)
Issued Twice monthly year round (outside
of Jan-May) Issued by Lower Colorado Focal
Point
SLCESPCO Colorado Water Supply Outlook
(covers the UC, SJ, GU, GN)
Issued First of month mid month Jan to
June Issued by Upper Colorado Focal Point
SLCESPCO Reservoir Management Forecast
(Gunnison San Juan peaks/volumes)
Issued Weekly, as determined by Customer
March to June Issued by Gunnison Basin
Focal Point San Juan Basin Focal Point
SLCESPWY Wyoming Water Supply Outlook (covers
the GN, GB (Bear) )
Issued First of month mid month Jan to
June Issued by Green Basin Focal Point
Also disseminated via email distribution list
17
Products routinely issued by Water Supply Focal
Points
ESG Peaks / Flood oriented products
ESG products contain reference to our online peak
flow publication starting in March
Also disseminated via email distribution list
18
RFC Product Content (per NWSI 10-1701 RFC Product
Specification Policy)
ESP Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Product
Intended for extended-range hydrologic forecast
information of a numeric or probabilistic nature.
Typically includes water supply forecasts,
drought and water resource guidance, and
long-term probabilistic forecast information.
Both products are not distributed over
NWS-supported public dissemination pathways.
They are provided to partners through appropriate
means including the Internet.
19
Example (special reservoir management forecast)
SLCESPUT COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY
UTAH The 6 to 10 day forecast is a National
Weather Service forecast productprovided by the
National Center for Environmental Prediction.6
TO 10 DAY FORECAST APRIL 3 TO APRIL 7 2004 ISSUED
MARCH 28AREA PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATUREN UTAH Below normal
Near normal RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT FORECAST
FOR MARCH 30, 2004The following are regulated
(observed) values and are based on forecast
temperatures 10 days into the future and
precipitation3 days into the future. Beyond
those time periods climatology or"normals" are
used.Vol is volume in 1000'S of acre-feet
(kaf).Peak is maximum mean daily peak in cubic
feet per second (cfs).___________________________
_____________________________________LITTLE
BEAR NR PARADISE This is an inflow forecast for
Hyrum Res.
FORECASTS WEEK 1 WEEK 2
WEEKS 3 AND 4 03/30 - 04/06
04/06 - 04/13 04/13 - 04/27 Vol
Peak Vol Peak Vol
Peak 1.4 130 1.5 140
5.2 320 THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE
ISSUED APRIL 1, 2004
20
Guidelines / Best (historical) Practices
ESP
Future Climate (6-10) Reference CPC outlooks
for short term forecasts. Include basin summary
information (snow, precip, flow) for all basins
referenced Include tabular forecasts (mp, max,
min) and observed data Include any probabilistic
information Limit output to water supply or
reservoir management supporting guidance Have any
narrative information reviewed (follow narrative
guidelines)
ESG
Refer to ESG_Guidelines document issued last
spring (Jeff/Greg) Refer to samples products
(specified in ESG_Guideline document) Reference
online peak flow forecast information when
available Limit output to peak flow / flood
guidance oriented guidance Have any narrative
information reviewed (follow narrative guidelines)
21
Narrative Guidelines (online, esp, esg)
Be consistent with average vs. normal Follow
the defined categories when referring to above,
much above, below, etc Round percentages to the
nearest 5 Do not editorialize Dont get wordy or
speculate, stick to the facts, focus on whats
driving your forecast. Future weather
(tricky) Avoid, particularly in April (short
term little effect too many scenarios) Only if
theres an obvious significant impact (rare in
short term) / affects ESP. Avoid what if
scenarios / leave open possibilities ESG is a
more appropriate location for discussion Last
months weather Probably more pertinent to
include if it was way outside the norm. El Nino /
La Nina acknowledge but no real relationships
exist other than LC. CPC Keep with
probabilistic nature of the guidance (elevated,
enhanced, equal chances, etc.) Have these
reviewed provide forecast / ESP output in a
consistent format to reviewer.
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Product Coordination
23
Product Archive (All products need to be in a
common directory)
ESG / ESP products Exist in both common and
personal directories.
Email oriented products Home directories or
purged?
What other products ?
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Data Acquisition / Posting / QC

• Precipitation ( Temperature)
• pcdiff estimates monthly precip for SNOTEL
  sites (PCIRMZZ rawval96 to PPM3MZZ promonly) run
  before 1st of month
• NRCS snotel WFO coop monthly precip shef
  messages (PPMRxZZ rawmonly T? PPM3xZZ promonly)
• prod2prom_ta cron job calculates level 2
  monthly max/min temps (TAI2xxZ prodly to TAM2xxZ
  promonly)
• Feed Monthly QC populates monthly QC program
  reads level 2/3 precip and temp data from
  promonly
• Monthly QC quality control of precip/temp data
  to level 4 promonly (PPM4xZZ, TAM4xxZ)
• Snow
• swest estimates end of month SWE for SNOTEL
  (SWIRMZZ rawval96 to SWIRMZZ rawmonly T? SWI3MZZ
  promonly) run before 1st of month
• NRCS snotel and snow course 1st of month swe
  shef messages (SWIRxZZ rawmonly T? SWI3xZZ
  promonly)
• promote creates level 4 data in the PROMONLY
  table (SWI4xZZ)

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Data Acquisition / Posting / QC

• Flow ( Storage)
• usgs_d2m creates shef file of monthly flow from
  usgs web data (QCMRZZZ rawmonly T? QCM3ZZZ
  promonly)
• process_bor.sh creates monthly inflow and
  end-of-month storage from raw daily USBR-SLC data
  (QIDRZZZ rawval to QCM1ZZZ promonly QMDRZZZ
  rawval to QCMPBZZ promonly LSIRZZZ rawval96 to
  LSM2ZZZ promonly)
• data sources specific to each basin may be
  manually entered or parsed/posted by a program
  (usually posted as QCMRZZZ rawmonly T? QCM3ZZZ)
• prod2prom creates monthly data from daily data
  maintains level of daily data
• mah2prod mahout_d2m creates daily data from
  hourly simulated data and then monthly volume
  used as an estimate when observed data not
  available (QRI2ZZZ mahrly to QCM2ZZZ may want to
  change monthly shef code if posting)
• fmah2prod creates daily values for future model
  simulated value. This data is useful for
  determining IFP forecast volumes for the next 2
  weeks (not meant to be posted).
• promote Creates level 4 data in the PROMONLY
  table
• qadjust Create adjusted (unregulated) data
  (QCMPAZZ promonly)

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Programs for Forecast Development

• Forecast Development
• swindex / swindext plots historical swe flow
  / temperature
• nextreg calculates SWS equation results where
  user enters forecasts
• espadp interactive ESP analysis display
  program
• Forecast Coordination
• wy_obs formats monthly data into an excel file
  for sharing
• Product Development
• basum summarizes data by basin
• precsum summarizes HUC precipitation
• tempsum summarizes HUC temperature
• nextpub generates forecast tables
• reom creates EOM reservoir table
• Product Dissemination
• copy to /local/q/wan

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More Data Information

• Database trigger (rawmonly ? promonly)
• Any data entered in the rawmonly table is
  automatically moved to the promonly table if the
  level is R it gets changed to level 3 otherwise
  it keeps the rawmonly level.
• promote (database procedure)
• Run through forms?query language?choose
• Creates level 4 data from the highest level data
  (3, 2, then 1) that is available for flow, snow,
  and storage.
• Should be run after any flow, snow or storage
  data is posted and before qadjust.
• prod2prom QCM1GZZ/QCM1RZZ
• Observed monthly DCP streamflow created from
  daily streamflow using PROD2PROM.
• Only to be used if nothing better exists (i.e.
  cant get agency data or estimates from simulated
  flow).
• In order to use this data, need change shef code
  source from G to Z (QCM1ZZZ) before posting to
  promonly.
• mah2prod mahout_d2m
• Output is generally not meant to be routinely
  stored in the database, but data may be used as
  an estimate when gages are frozen etc.
• To post this data it is suggested that the shef
  code be changed to QCM1ZZZ and a quality code of
  E be attached to the data value before posting
  to promonly.
• process_bor.sh
• Similar routines can be created for other data
  groups that need to be moved from daily to
  monthly within our database each month.

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Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS)
associated with water supply
Flow Storage
RAWMONLY Table
QCMRZZZ Collected monthly streamflow
data LSMRZZZ Collected Reservoir end of month
storage
PROMONLY Table
QCM3ZZZ Corresponds to QCMRZZZ, Collected
monthly streamflow data in the PROMONLY
table QCM1ZZZ Monthly streamflow created from
PROD2PROM Data received automatically from
external agency. QCM1GZZ Monthly streamflow
created from PROD2PROM DCP QCM4ZZZ Promoted
monthly streamflow data (from level 3, 2, then 1,
data as available) QCM4GZZ Promoted monthly
streamflow data DCP QCMPAZZ Adjusted monthly
streamflow data (likely generated from QADJUST
program) QCMPBZZ Adjusted monthly streamflow
data (external agency provided or
calculation) QCMP?ZZ Other monthly adjusted
streamflow data (likely generated from QADJUST
program alternate method) LSM3ZZZ Corresponds
to LSMRZZZ, Collected monthly reservoir storage
data. LSM4ZZZ Promoted reservoir end of month
storage data Promoted using PROMOTE program
29
Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS)
associated with water supply
Flow Storage
CALMONLY Table
QCM5ZZZ Historical monthly streamflow data
collected from source agency highest
quality QCM4ZZZ Historical monthly streamflow
data (moved from promonly to calmonly) QCMRZZZ Hi
storical monthly streamflow data (older data
load) LSM5ZZZ Historical monthly reservoir data
collected from source agency highest
quality LSM4ZZZ Historical monthly reservoir
data (moved from promonly to calmonly) LSMRZZZ Hi
storical monthly reservoir data (older data load)
MAHRLY / FMAHRLY Table
QRI2ZZZ IFP hourly flow adjusted-observed data.
Used in mah2prod program to create SHEF output
file of daily flows. QRIPAZZ IFP adjusted
simulated hourly flows. Used in mah2prod
program to create SHEF output of daily simulated
flows. QRIFEZZ IFP adjusted forecast hourly
flows. Used in fmah2fprod to create daily flows.
QRIFUZZ IFP adjusted simulated forecast
hourly flows. Used in fmah2frod to create daily
flows. QIIF?ZZ Same as the previous 4 data
types but used for reservoir inflow.
30
Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS)
associated with water supply
Precipitation Snow
RAWMONLY Table
PPMRZZZ Monthly precipitation collected /
provided from external source (i.e.
cooperators) PPMRMZZ Monthly SNOTEL
precipitation provided from the
NRCS SWIRMZZ Monthly SNOTEL SWE data provided
from the NRCS SWIRZZZ Monthly Snow Course data
Provided from external source
PROMONLY Table
PPM3ZZZ Corresponds to PPMRZZZ in the RAWMONLY
table collected monthly precipitation
data PPM4ZZZ Promoted monthly precipitation data
Promoted from Monthly_QC PPM3MZZ Corresponds
to PPMRMZZ in the RAWMONLY table collected
monthly SNOTEL precipitation PPM4MZZ Promoted
monthly precipitation data Promoted from
Monthly_QC PPS4MZZ Seasonal total SNOTEL
precipitation PPS4ZZZ Seasonal total
precipitation SWI3MZZ Corresponds to SWIRMZZ
Monthly SNOTEL SWE provided from
NRCS SWI4MZZ Promoted SNOTEL SWE data - Promoted
using the PROMOTE program SWI3ZZZ Corresponds to
SWIRZZZ Monthly Snow Course SWE provided from
NRCS SWI4ZZZ Promoted Snow Course SWE data
Promoted using the PROMOTE program.
31
Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS)
associated with water supply
Precipitation Snow
CALMONLY Table
PPM5ZZZ Historical monthly precipitation
collected from source agency highest
quality PPMRZZZ Historical monthly precipitation
(older downloads) PPM4ZZZ Historical monthly
precipitation (copied from promonly) PPM3ZZZ Hist
orical monthly precipitation PPM5MZZ Historical
monthly SNOTEL precipitation collected from
source agency highest quality SWI5MZZ Monthly
precipitation collected / provided from
external source (i.e. cooperators) SWI4MZZ Monthl
y SNOTEL precipitation provided from the
NRCS SWIRMZZ Monthly SNOTEL SWE data provided
from the NRCS SWI5ZZZ Monthly Snow Course data
Provided from external source SWI4ZZZ Historica
l monthly Snow Course data (copied from
promonly) SWIRZZZ Historical monthly Snow Course
data (older download)
Climate Indexes
PROMONLY Table
CIIRZZZ Climate Index (SOI, MEI)
CALMONLY Table
CIIRZZZ Climate Index (SOI, MEI, NAO, PNA, MOO)
32
Typical Data Acquisition Monthly Water Supply
Collected / Provided Data (USGS, Reclamation, SL
Pub Utilities, etc.)

• This is typically monthly streamflow,
  precipitation, soi, nrcs provided snow data
  (Level R Data)
• Level R data - manually posted to the RAWMONLY
  table (-gt /local/q/rawmonly/in) qcmrzzz
• Automatically triggered to PROMONLY level 3
  qcm3zzz
• Run PROMOTE for Snow, Flow, and Reservoir
  Storage to create level 4 data qcm4zzz
• Run feed_monthly_qc Monthly_QC to create Level
  4 data for precipitation and temperature data
  swi4mzz

Automatically Received Data (Monthly data
generated from hourly and daily data)

• This is data received through automated methods
  to our office daily (i.e. dcp, Reclamation, etc.)
  
• Level 1 2 data - qcm2zzz is automatically
  received and posted to the processed database
• Hourly data is turned to daily data and stored
  (PROHRLY to PRODLY)
• Run PROD2PROM to create monthly data It is
  stored as original level 1 or level 2 data
• Run Promote to create level 4 data. RAWMONLY
  Level R data, that becomes PROMONLY Level 3 Data
  is deemed to be a higher quality data and will
  override PROD2PROM generated data.