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South America Low Level Jet field EXperiment

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U.S. CLIVAR Pan American Workshop. Boulder, September 2003. Outline ... it can explain much of the simulated uncertainty over the area up to 7 days ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: South America Low Level Jet field EXperiment


1
South America Low Level Jet field EXperiment
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U.S. CLIVAR Pan American Workshop Boulder,
September 2003
2
Outline
  • SALLJ Scientific Goals and Specific Objectives
  • SALLJEX Components - Participant Countries
  • Activities during SALLJEX
  • Work in progress
  • Follow up activities

3
VAMOS/ MESASouth America Monsoon System 1st
tier SALLJ
To understand the role of the South American
low-level jet in moisture and energy exchange
between the tropics and extratropics and related
aspects of regional hydrology, climate and
climate variability
4
VAMOS/SALLJ Program Specific objectives
  • obtain an improved description of the temporal
    and spatial structure of the SALLJ based on
    expanded monitoring activities and special field
    experiments,
  • evaluate the veracity of numerical representation
    (forecasts and analyses) of SALLJ against special
    observations and,
  • determine improvements of initial state
    representation and model parameterizations
    required to improve prediction.

5
Fill the Gap .
Operational Radiosonde coverage at 12 UTC
6
Salljex Components
  • Upper-air network enhancement
  • Daily precipitation network enhancement
  • NOAA/P-3 Missions
  • Modeling
  • NOAA/OGP Educational and outreach Program
  • Teachers in the field

7
VAMOS/SALLJEXperiment
Participant countries Argentina, Bolivia,
Brazil, Chile, USA, Paraguay, Perú Main
participant institutions (in alphabetic order)
AASANA - Bolivia, CIMA - Argentina, CPTEC - INPE
- Brasil, DINAC - DNM - Paraguay, NCAR - JOSS -
USA, NSF(ATM) - USA, NSF(IAI/GEO) - USA, NOAA
(PACS/OGP)- USA, NOAA(NSSL/ERL), SENAMHI - Perú,
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Argentina,
Universidad of Buenos Aires - Argentina,
University of Chile - Chile, University of São
Paulo - Brasil, University of Utah - USA SALLJEX
Project office G. Emanuel, J. Meitin
(UCAR/JOSS), C. Ereño (ICPO) Main funding
sources NOAA/OGP and NSF (USA), FAPESP (Brazil),
ANPCyT (Argentina)
8
SALLJEX Timeline
2002
1
15
1
15
1
15
October
November
December
2003
1
15
1
15
1
15
March
February
January
Basic observing period (Upper-air obs)
Special Observing Period (Upper-air obs P-3
Missions)
Intensive Observing Periods (Upper-air obs)
SALLJEX raingauge observating system
9
SALLJEX observational components Upper air
  • 4504 Pilot balloon observations in 26 stations
  • 279 extra Radiosondes over Argentina, 200 over
    Bolivia and Paraguay and 120 over Brazil

140 extra observers
Approximately between 4 and 6 observers at each
site
10
Upper-air data coverage
From PACS/SONET web page
11
SALLJEX observational components Raingauges
  • 795 installed raingauges
  • More than 1500 raingauges were made available

12
Salljex Observational components NOAA P3
  • Objectives
  • Diurnal variations of the SALLJ
  • Detailed description of the 3-dimensional
    structure of the SALLJ
  • The relationship between MCCs and the SALLJ
  • Description of the heat low over the Chaco and NW
    Argentina
  • 99.1 flight hours to cover 13 missions

13
SALLJEX components Modeling Groups from
Argentina, Brazil, Chile and US issued daily
weather forecasts
  • NOGAPS model Analysis
  • University of Utah Model Analysis
  • ETA/CPTEC 40 km res., 00 and 12 UTC FC
  • ETA/CPTEC 20 km res., 12 UTC FC
  • ETA/UMD 80 km res., 00 UTC FC
  • LAHM/CIMA 60 km res., 00 UTC FC
  • NCEP/AVN 100 km res., 00 UTC FC
  • RAMS/UBA 20 km res., 00 UTC FC
  • RAMS/USP 25 km res., 00 and 12 UTC FC
  • U of Chile MM5 30 km res., 12 UTC FC

14
SALLJEX Legacy
  • Data
  • Research
  • Predictability improvement

15
SALLJEX DATA MANAGEMENT
  • NOAA P-3 flight level data (preliminary/final)
  • NOAA P-3 airborne radar data
  • Processing Upper Air Sounding Data
  • Upper-air data (raobs, pibals)
  • Model run files
  • Satellite files and imagery
  • Precipitation data
  • SALLJEX Data Management Link
  • http//www.joss.ucar.edu/salljex/dm/
  • The SALLJEX web site includes an on line field
    catalog, instructions for data submission, data
    policy and data management plan.

16
Wind Profiles and quantity of observations at
some stations over SALLJEX area
17
Case studies
  • January 22-23 MCS
  • MCS Flight and system environmental conditions
    (USA - Argentina)
  • Cold surge after the strong LLJ (Brazil, Chile,
    Argentina)

18
How does SALLJEX contribute to MESA modeling?
  • VAMOS/MESA Modeling GoalTo improve seasonal to
    interannual climate and hydrological
    predictions.Strategy is to focus on1- Testing
    of hypothesis with models. 2- Detecting
    deficiencies in the models and improving
    performance.3- Developing new parameterizations
    and model components.

SALLJEX provides a unique opportunity to
calibrate and improve models
19
A coordinated experiment to assess models
performance during SALLJEX
The 17-18 January 2003 MCS .... Not predicted by
models
13 UTC, January 18
20
Exp 1 80 km Covering South America
Exp 2 20 km Covering SALLJEX area
21
EXP 1
EXP 2
22
Initializationdiscrepancies between SALLJEX
data and GDAS Analysis
Mariscal Estig.
Resistencia
JVG
23
Forecast verificationDetecting deficiencies in
the models first step toward improvement
GDAS
Radiosonde data
24
Evaluate the veracity of numerical representation
(forecasts and analyses) of SALLJ related paterns
against special observations
25
(No Transcript)
26
Data Assimilation Preliminary results
  • Data from the SALLJEX were assimilated in the
    AGCM CPTEC/COLA , using the PSAS scheme, and
    results show large differences comparing with
    outputs using NCEP analysis without assimilation
    of these data.
  • differences in moisture associated with the
    presence of the MCS, and occurence of
    precipitation.

Iracema Cavalcanti, Dirceu Herdies and José
Marengo CPTEC - Brazil
27
Initial uncertainty a key issue to improve
forecasts
Uncertainty over the whole globe
  • Impact of uncertainty in the initial condition
    over SALLJEX region it can explain much of the
    simulated uncertainty over the area up to 7 days

A. C. Saulo, L. A. Byerle, J. Paegle, and J. N.
Paegle
Uncertainty only over SALLJEX area
28
What follows up
  • SALLJEX Data Workshop to be held in Buenos Aires,
    Argentina 10-12 December 2003
  • Assess progress in meeting SALLJEX objectives
  • Strengthen collaborations between SALLJEX
    participants, and
  • Broaden participation to expand usage of SALLJEX
    data in modeling and empirical studies
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