Agricultural Science Association Conference 2000

1
Agricultural Science Association Conference 2000

• Irish Agriculture - Painting the Economic
  Framework
• Alan Matthews
• Trinity College Dublin

2
The issue

• The Irish nonfarm economy is booming
• What is the appropriate agricultural policy
  response?
• Should policy continue to subsidise farming
  activity at current levels
• Or should the opportunity be taken to pursue a
  more vigorous structural adjustment policy?

3
Agricultures contribution to the Irish economy
4
EU Agriculture as GDP, 1999
5
Farm Numbers Declining
6
Direct payments increasing
AgriFood 2010
7
Subsidy element of agricultural gross value
added, 1999
4 of GNP
8
Subsidy element of agricultural gross value
added, 1999
9
Subsidy element of agricultural gross value
added, 1999
10
Subsidy element of agricultural gross value
added, 1999
11
Direct payment share in farm incomes, 1998, NFS
data
12
EU support to farmers (bn euros)
13
EU and US support per farmer(thousand euros)
14
Nominal assistance coefficients
15
Composition of EU farm support
16
Can support be sustained?

• WTO Millenium Round negotiations
• negotiations started but uncertain outcome
• EU enlargement
• necessary to revisit Agenda 2000
• The future of direct payments
• modulation
• degressivity
• decoupling

17
Agricultural competitiveness at world market
prices

• Dairying likely to expand
• Beef - the big uncertainty
• Pigs, poultry, horticulture to continue as at
  present
• Cereals and sugar beet to contract
• Forestry may expand depending on level of
  competing subsidies

18
Land sales, 1990-1998
19
Farmers managerial experience
20
Ensuring future agricultural competitiveness

• Structural adjustment to favour fewer and larger
  farms
• Technical innovation and research
• Improved managerial skills
• Tighter links to consumer markets
• is it time to change the terms of the debate?