Title: 2020 Foresight: Citizens as Participants in and Consumers of Government Services 15 Years from Now.
120/20 Foresight Citizens as Participants in and
Consumers of Government Services 15 Years from
Now. ForManagement of Change 2004 Conference
Citizen Services Attaining Breakthrough
PerformancebyClem BezoldInstitute for
Alternative Futures
2Conclusions
- Incredible changes by 2020 could be
significant, or terrible, or visionary
- Government services will evolve, including the
steering role of government
- The significant technology challenges will be
easier to resolve than the values and priority
choices we face
- Health care services illustrate the incredible
opportunities, the difficult choices and the
range of evolving roles for government.
3Conclusion, cont.
- Global Cyber Democracy Conclusions
- Emergent possibilities Current experiments only
hint at the potential. There is a promising
opportunity to invent and put in place new
approaches that enhance the key values of
democracy, particularly freedom, equality,
stability, majority rule with protection of
minority viewpoints, participation, shared
vision, and anticipation. In addition, the
interactive nature of technology could enhance
collective intelligence for shaping and
implementing policy
4Conclusion, cont.
- Direction setting, and ensuring the quality of
direction setting, is a key government role
this will require enhancing the capacity of
individuals as effective citizens - Individuals get little training to be effective
citizens cyber democracy can change this for
the better
- Politicians and public servants have a nearly
impossible job cyber democracy can make it better
5 Value-Added is defined
Why/What
How
6Vision, where we live and change management.
- Most of our time we spend delivering at the
tactical and operational level
- As citizens and public servants we need to be
sure that weve spent adequate and effective time
at the vision level in defining the shared
future we want to create. - Important for employee understanding, for
change/transition management
- For difficult tradeoffs
- For leaving a legacy
7 Value-Added is defined
Why/What
How
8Sources for this Presentation
- 1978 Anticipatory Democracy
- 1980s and 1990s research and consulting on
policy making, government services and
participation
- 2001 Global Scan of Cyber Democracy developments
for Vivendi Universal Prospective
- 2004 Cyber Democracy Update
- Health Futures for governments and business
9Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Democracy Democracy and government roles
enhanced by the Internet and other ICTs.
- Cyber Democracy typically encompasses more
direct forms of government, stressing different
aspects of political participation, particularly
discussion and political activity through
communal forms of participation.
10Components of Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Administration
- Digitalization of Government services
- Cyber Voting
- Online and Digital forms of voting, IR
- Cyber Policy Participation
- Feedback to Representatives, Electronic Town
Meetings
- Cyber Infrastructure
- Online Community, Simulations, Internet Polling
- Cyber Agenda Setting
- Media, NGOs Political Parties
- Swarm Activism, Collective Intelligence
11Components of Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Administration
- Digitalization of Government services
12Global E-Government Trends
- Four common stages for E-Government
developments
- Making info available
- Interacting electronically with citizens
- Transactional activities
- Integration of services
13E-Government Leaders
- Innovative Leader
- Canada
- Visionary Followers
- Singapore and the United States
- Steady Achievers
- Australia, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, France, UK,
Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Japan, Norway,
Spain, Malaysia
- Platform Builders
- Italy, Mexico, Portugal, Brazil, South Africa
Accenture eGovernment Performance High
Performance, Maximum Value, 2004
14Canada Innovative Leader
- Four time e-government leader
- Whole government integration
- Citizen centered
- Extensive knowledge about its customers
- Regular Surveys on service satisfaction
- Focus groups one to one interviews
- New Innovations
- Wireless government portal
- E-pass
Accenture eGovernment Performance High
Performance, Maximum Value, 2004
15E-Gov Information Seeking is on the Rise
- 68 million Americans have used a Government
Website
- To research public policy 42 million
- To send comments 23 million
- To help decide how to cast their votes 14
million
- To participate in online lobbying 13 million
- 80 of respondents say they find what they are
looking for on government sites
Pew Internet American Life Center The Rise of
the E-Citizen, 2002
16E-Government Has Improved Government Services
- Three-quarters believe e-government has made it
easier for them to stay informed about government
services
- Two-thirds believe it has made it easier for them
to conduct government transactions
- More e-government users search for information
rather than make transactions
- 63 search for information compared to
- 23 who conduct transactions
Council for Excellence in Government The New
Government Equation Ease, Engagement, Privacy
Protection, 2003
17What Kinds of Information are E-Citizens Looking
For?
Council for Excellence in Government The New
Government Equation Ease, Engagement, Privacy
Protection, 2003
18Cyber Administration
- Common consumer services
- Taxes, Drivers license, Car registration, Police
reports, Social Security info, Unemployment info,
Birth certificates
- Common business services
- Corporate registration, Customs Declarations,
VAT, Submitting statistics, Social welfare
contributions, Environmental permits, Government
contract information
19Transparency
- Effects of Information exchange
- More efficient deployment of government
resources
- New means for citizens to monitor government and
business actions
- Regulation through Publication
- Governments can increasingly penalize misdeeds by
publicizing offenders though websites
20Security and Privacy
- Post 9/11 and post-Total Information Awareness
Program -- challenges and protections are not
effectively in place
21Components of Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Voting
- Online and Digital forms of voting, IR
22Components of Cyber Democracy
- Voting meaningful participation in meaningful
choices on candidates, and on policies
- Cyber Voting
- Online and Digital forms of voting on
candididate, Initiative Referendum
- Major changes in awareness since 2001
23Worldwide Voter Turnout1945-2001
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
1945-1949
1950-1959
1960-1969
1965-1979
1980-1989
1990-2001
VAPVoting Age Population
Rafael Lopez Pintor Maria Gratschew Voter
Turnout Since 1945, 2002
24Electronic Voting
- Voter Turnout
- Globally, voter turnout levels converging at 50
to 75 of the voting-age population of any given
country.
- Causes of Low Voter Turnout
- Administrative Obstacles
- Cynicism
- Declining Social Capital
- Decline in Competitive Elections
- Election Systems
- E-voting only addresses Admin. Obstacles
- Is this enough to reverse declining voter turnout?
25Electronic Voting Evolution
- Stages toward E-Voting
- Wired Polling Sites
- Authenticated E-mail Voting
- Web voting
- Upsides
- Convenience, Ease of Use, Flexibility
- More options for policy planners
- Downsides
- Losing Voting as a Civic Ritual
- Tactical/Strategic Voting
- Security Authentication Issues
- Large Capital Investments in New Technology
26Wired Polling The United States, 2004
- 50 million electronic voters this falls
elections
- Widespread pressure for paper-trails and
open-source codes
- 20 states have introduced legislation requiring
paper-trails
27Wired Polling The United States
- Indiana (2004) Uncertified software installed in
5 counties
- Maryland (2004) Modem Problems delayed the
presidential primaries
- San Diego (2004)
- 573 out of 1,083 polling places failed to open
due to computer glitches
- DoD cancels e-voting
28Wired Polling India 2004
- Largest electronic election ever
- 380 million voters
- 1 million e-voting machines
- 1,214 voting centers
- One huge upset
29Web Voting
- U.K. (2002)
- 9,479 participants
- 5 Councils
- 28 Wards
- France (2002)
- 860 participants
- Local elections
- Sweden (2003)
- 226 participants
- On-line Referendum
30Voting as a Civic Ritual
- Evoting moves from the public sphere to the
Private Sphere
- Even with secret ballots, voting is one of the
few community bonding experiences left
- Standing in line at polling stations is a form of
civic ritual
31Strategic Voting
- Online vote trading systems allow voters to cast
their ballots strategically
- 2000 Presidential election
- 16,000 swaps overall
- 1,412 swaps in Florida
- Gore lost the state by 537 votes
- Voteswap.com plans to reopen for 2004
Estimates from Votetrader.org, 2004
32Authentication Methods
- Based on secret codes
- Passwords, PINs, ect.
- Easy to forget or fall into the wrong hands
- Based on a token
- Key, passport, smartcard
- Easy to lose steal
- Biometrics
- Behavioral Biometrics
- Handwriting, Voice, Keyboard dynamics, etc.
- Physical Biometrics
- Face, Fingerprint, Hand Geometry, Iris/Retinal,
Vein, etc.
33Is the American Public Ready for Online Voting?
- Only three in ten Americans are in favor of
online voting for public offices,
- And 54 strongly oppose the idea
- Council for Excellence in Government The New
Government Equation Ease, Engagement, Privacy
Protection, 2003
- DoD SERVE (Secure Electronic Registration and
Voting Experiment)
- 22 million pilot project was cancelled
- Didnt properly address security concerns
- Poor implementation
- Little to no attempt to create public support
34The Future of Online Voting
- The government
- needs to set clear standards and protocols,
especially security standards
- Build public trust by
- Exposing the public to delivering high value in
other e-government services
- Public outreach programs
- Executing successful pilot programs at the local
regional level
- If these steps are handled correctly, up to 25
of the votes in the 2012 election could come
through electronic channels.
E-commerce Times Are we ready for e-voting?,
2003
35Making voting meaningful, engaging for kids?
- In California John Vasconcellos proposal to
allow 16 year olds a half vote 14 year olds a
quarter vote
36Direct Democracy
- Initiative and Referendum
- California initiatives 42 from 1911 to 1978 40
between 1980 and 1996
- Over four million Californian voters voted to
recall Gray Davis and install Arnold
Schwarzenegger as governor
- Swiss Study ICT can help get more issues on the
ballot, but could lead to an increase in marginal
initiatives
- ICT Enhancements
- Easier voter education, cuts election costs
- Creates potential for more frequent voting, or
more flexible voting arrangements
37Direct democracy says, Okay, how do we feel this
week? We all raise our hand. Lets rush off and
do it. The concept of republican
representationis you hire somebody who you send
to a central place. They, by definition, learn
things you dont learn, because you dont want
toyou want to be able to live your life. They
are supposed to use their judgment to represent
you. The Founders feared the passion of the
moment.- Newt Gingrich
38If liberty and equality, as is thought by some
are chiefly to be found in democracy, they will
be best attained when all persons alike share in
the government to the utmost. -- Aristotle
39By 2020 we could create systems where citizens
have a clear sense of values, vision and
direction collective priorities for funding, and
fairness or equity as well as the communitys
and countrys contribution these would reinforce
representative democracy. Clem Bezold
40Components of Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Policy Participation
- Feedback to Representatives, Electronic Town
Meetings
- Anticipatory Democracy
- From Alternatives for Washington (1973) to
America Speaks (2003)
- Pprocess/design options, including media use are
there, leadership among elected officials, public
servants, and community leaders is often lacking.
41Cyber Participation
- ICT enables new ways for citizens to interact
with elected officials
- Experimental public forums
- Canadian legislature
- Digital Petitions
- Nevada Legislature
- Online Policy Discussions
- MN-Politics Listserv
42Cyber ParticipationConstituent Communication
- Communication will be increasingly electronic
- Sorting/filtering software help limited staffs
deal with new constituent communications
- Polling about strategic direction setting and
specific issues will improve
43Cyber ParticipationElectronic Town Meetings
- Electronic Town Meetings, citizen juries, and
related approaches allow citizens to become
producers, rather than mere consumers, of
political discourse - Technologic Drivers
- Broadband Diffusion
- Audio/Video Technology
- Low Cost Computing
- Leadership/community building is essential
44Components of Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Infrastructure
- Online Community, Simulations, Internet Polling
45Cyber Infrastructure
- ICT creates new opportunities for citizens to
interact with each other and government to help
shape public policy
- Online Community Software
- Yahoo Groups, Friendster, LinkedIn, Tribe,
Meetup, etc.
- Estimated at 7.5 million total users
46Cyber Infrastructure Games Simulations
- Simulated budget economic engines
- Allows citizens to test policy choices and their
implications
- Provides real-time models for policy-makers
47Cyber InfrastructureInternet Polling
- By 2010, 90 of polling will be conducted over
the Internet
- The advantages of online polls
- Are less intrusive burdensome
- Have greater versatility
- Have higher response rates
- Deliver results in less time
- Provides more research for the same dollar
- The under-representation of certain demographic
groups is the major disadvantage of online polls,
although that will lessen as the digital divide
decreases
48Cyber Infrastructure
- The growth and diffusion of broadband internet
access will allow more interactive and user
friendly e-government services
- The total number of broadband cable and DSL
Internet subscribers in the US will surpass the
number of narrowband subscribers in 2005
- And will grow to nearly 49 million by the end of
2007
Leichtman Research Group, 2003
49E-Health Infrastructure
- Electronic Medical Records
- Bio-monitoring for illnesses
- Data security
- By 2014, Computerized information systems will be
commonly used for medical care, including
diagnosis, dispensing prescriptions, monitoring
medical conditions, and promoting self-care
The George Washington University Technology
Forecast
50Banks and other financial institutions all across
the country can talk to each other
electronically, which has streamlined customer
transactions and reduced errors, we want to do
the same thing for the American health care
system. -Secretary Tommy Thompson, 2003
51 52Components of Cyber Democracy
- Cyber Agenda Setting
- Media, NGOs Political Parties
- Swarm Activism, Collective Intelligence
- In the context of agenda setting currently on the
basis of established agendas and power
relationships.
53Educate and inform the whole mass of peopleThey
are the only sure reliance for the preservation
of our liberty.
-Thomas Jefferson to James Madison, 1787
54Cyber Agenda-Setting
- Uses ICTs to enhance political or policy
activities. Includes
- Media
- Political Parties
- NGOs
- Swarm Activism
- Collective Intelligence
55Cyber Agenda-Setting The Media
- ICT enables new media voices to emerge Weblogs,
Drudge Report
- Consolidation in media ownership, proliferation
of media channels
- Interactive (Civic) Journalism
- PEW Study 87 percent of editors thought that
newspapers should play a broader role in the
community
- Value-Added comes from facilitating community
discussion
56Cyber Agenda-Setting Political Parties
- Generally use ICT as a supplemental communication
tool, some exceptions
- Swedish Moderates Party online discussions with
members and leaders
- MoveOn.org used the internet to coordinate
grass-roots volunteers and
- Dean Campaign used the internet as a critical
fundraising tool
- Internet can help elevate fringe parties and
candidates
57Cyber Agenda-Setting NGOs
- ICT gives new ways to mobilize supporters and
allies
- Amnesty International
- Exxon/Mobil boycott
- AIDS drug patents
- ICTs allow smaller groups to work together
effectively
- amplify their collective influence
58Cyber Agenda-Setting Swarm Activism
- Activist groups with a networked structure that
are able to quickly mobilize without central
leadership
- Factions can come together for action
- Prominent examples the WTO, G8, and IMF protests
in US and EU
59Cyber Agenda-Setting Swarm Activism
- Metcalfes Law
- The value of a network grows by the square of the
size of the network
- Reeds Law
- The value of a social network scales
exponentially with the size of the network
60Cyber Agenda-Setting Collective Intelligence
- Bird watching, Flocking altering the
environment
- ICT enables watchers to report sightings into
online database, and visualize migration
patterns
- Can individually contribute to collective action
readjusting local environments
61Cyber Agenda-Setting Collective Intelligence
- Someday our technology would allow us to create
a web of thought and action that would make the
world more complex, diverse and alive, moving
mankind toward ultimate evolution. - -Pierre Teillhard de Chardin, 1940
62Cyber Agenda-Setting Collective Intelligence
- The Noosphere deChardins image of a
man-machine conscious skin, involved in human
awareness and evolution
- To what ends? With what results?
- Consider these forces in relation to
- Health Care 2020
63Background for Health Care 2020 Thinking about
Creating The Future
64Thinking about Creating The Future
- Health Care Cyber Government learn from the
future
- Trends/Scanning Forecasting and Imagining
Scenarios
- Health Care and Cyber Government should be driven
by effective direction setting
- Values, Shared Vision, Strategies Priorities,
Tactics and Implementation
65Thinking about Creating The Future
- Health Care 2020
- Will result from complex interaction of
technology and clinical developments marketplace
forces
- Government has a significant leadership role in
ensuring that steering toward the health and
health care system we want is done consciously
and done well.
66Health and Health Care 2020
- Health and health care in 2020 and government
services related to health will be far better
- Governments role and services, especially
leading/steering, will be critical
- Health Care 2020 wide range of scenarios for
health care and governments role I will
present a plausible, visionary scenario
67Health and Health Care 2020
- Values, Technology, Funding, and Regulation
- These will mix to shape health care government
will play a critical role in how the mixing and
shaping occurs
68Values and Direction Setting in Health Care
- US health care 15 of GNP 40 Million
uninsured significant quality and safety
problems
- Obesity epidemic Poverty as greatest health risk
-- Yet by 2020 cancer, diabetes, and heart
disease are likely to be preventable or curable,
at least for some people. - Health care needs more conscious direction
setting including massive public input on that
direction setting, including stewardship/priority
setting. - Effective direction settings requires
clarification of values, development of shared
vision, then effective use of design options and
choices on trade offs.
69Values and Direction Setting in Health Care
- What are values for health care in the US?
- Consider our informal values and a growing sense
of formally stated values, including those
underlying certain Federal goals.
70Healthcare Values?
- Most Developed Nationals
- Universality
- Equity
- Accept govts role
- Skeptical of markets
- Global budgets
- Technology assessment
- US Healthcare Values (Informal)
- Individual accountable
- Pluralism and choice
- Ambivalence toward govt.
- Competitive markets
- Embrace technology
- Volunteerism
71Government and Values
- A major role for government is in providing or
ensuring that the steering mechanisms are
effective in this case ensuring that the public
considers these informal and formal values for
health care from the World Health Organization,
the US Healthy People 2010 Objectives for the
Nation, and the Institute of Medicine.
72WHO Health for All Vision
- WHO and all nations of the world, including the
US, agreed in 1998 to the Health For All vision
- This vision statement identifies certain values
necessary to achieve before all have health
Equity, solidarity, ethics, gender and human
rights
73US Government Health Values
- The Federal Government, in its goal setting,
design work, and current policy supports much of
the Health For All Values
74Healthy People 2010
- The US, in setting up Healthy People 2010
Objectives for the Nation, identified two
overarching goals
- Longer years of healthy live
- Elimination of health disparities
- Pursued by 437 specific objectives
75Health Care and Values in the US
- The Institute of Medicine in its Crossing the
Quality Chasm Report identifies six aims or
values for Health Care
- Safe
- Effective
- Patient-Centered
- Timely
- Efficient
- Equitable
76Bush Administration Values
- The Bush Adminstration has reinforced many of
these values
- Relying on IOM to identify health reform
priorities, consistent with these 6 aims
- Required a disparity reduction focus among
agencies
77Steering, the Public and Values
- One of the urgent cyberdemocracy actions needed
is a public dialogue on values and shared vision
for health care in the US nothing short of this
will confront the challenges we face, as well as
the great opportunities for better health and
health care.
78Health Care 2020
- Multiple scenarios exist Ill provide one a
plausible yet visionary image, then consider the
role of government services in health and health
care in 2020
79The Future Environment A Plausible and Visionary
Future
- What might the future hold?
- Bezolds preferred future/vision for health care
in the US
80US Health Care 2020
- System that meets IOMs 6 Aims/values
- Health care provider, and patient/consumer have
instant access to appropriate information on
therapeutic choices, Just In Time, including
genomics and patients preferences - Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) are ubiquitous,
standardized, secure
- Personal biomonitoring data part of EMR
- Privacy, security and discrimination protections
are in place
-
81US Health Care 2020(cont)
- Chronic disease focus and disease anticipation
- Awareness of multiple conditions and life stage
are an integral part of care formulation
- Effective, continuous, healing relationships
- Physicians and other providers are more
satisfied
- New roles for Doctors, Nurses, Pharmacists, and
others
- Outcome based reporting, including pt.
satisfaction, that affects patients choice of
providers
82US Health Care 2020 (cont)
- Consumer responsibility, with more effective
self-care, integrated with provider care
- Strong patient group and other advocacy support
for developing and applying advances
- Application of new advances considered in the
context of behavior, genomics, and community
- Disparity reduction focus for advances
- Health care funding and share of GNP are aligned
with relative benefits, community choices, real
health gains
-
83Government Role/Services in Health Care 2020
- Steering national, public, effective systems in
place
- Research consistent with needs and priorities
- Standards for the infrastructure and operations
(ensure standards are there, or provide)
- Delivery of excellent services as relevant DoD,
VA, BIA, Community Health Centers/BPC/HRSA.
- Information ensuring quality info is available
- Ensuring privacy, discrimination, security
protections are in place
- Health professions policy, guidance, funding
- Public health advocacy and protection,
surveillance
-
84Government Role/Services 2020 Beyond Health Care
- Steering national, public, effective systems in
place including shared vision
- Standards for the infrastructure and operations
(ensure standards are there, or provide)
- Delivery of excellent services as relevant
- Information ensuring quality info is
accessible
- Ensuring privacy, discrimination, security
protections are in place
- Labor market policy, guidance, funding
- Public health advocacy and protection,
surveillance
-
85Additional Changes affecting Government
Role/Services 2020
- Virtuality
- Biometrics
- Anticipation of needs/services
- Personalization/customization
- Identity/Community
- Risks/Uncertainties
- Nature Climate, Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Gulf
stream shift
- Terrorism local, national, infrastructure
focused disparities vs equity
- Economic global developments, nature of value
added
-
86Are we up to the Challenge of creating more
effective democracy?
87I know of no safe depository of the ultimate
powers of the society but the people themselves
and if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them but to inform their discretion by education.
-Thomas Jefferson to William C. Jarvis, 1820
88I like the dreams of the future better than the
history of the past. -Thomas Jefferson to
John Adams, 1816
89No one pretends that democracy is perfect or
all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy
is the worst form of Government except all those
other forms that have been tried. - Winston
Churchill, House of Commons, 11 Nov. 1947
90A citizen of America will cross the ocean to
fight for democracy, but won't cross the street
to vote in a national election.-- Bill Vaughn
91We have it in our power to begin the world over
again.-- Thomas Paine
92Conclusions
- Incredible changes by 2020 could be
significant, or terrible, or visionary
- Government services will evolve, including the
steering role of government
- The significant technology challenges will be
easier to resolve than the values and priority
choices we face
- Health care services illustrate the incredible
opportunities, the difficult choices and the
range of evolving roles for government.
93Conclusion, cont.
- Global Cyber Democracy Conclusions
- Emergent possibilities Current experiments only
hint at the potential. There is a promising
opportunity to invent and put in place new
approaches that enhance the key values of
democracy, particularly freedom, equality,
stability, majority rule with protection of
minority viewpoints, participation, shared
vision, and anticipation. In addition, the
interactive nature of technology could enhance
collective intelligence for shaping and
implementing policy
94Conclusion, cont.
- Direction setting, and ensuring the quality of
direction setting, is a key government role
this will require enhancing the capacity of
individuals as effective citizens - Individuals get little training to be effective
citizens cyber democracy can change this for
the better
- Politicians some govt. officials have a nearly
impossible job cyber democracy can make it better
95For More Information Contact
Alternative Futures Associates
100 N. Pitt St., Suite 235 Alexandria, VA 22314
703-684-5880
Http//www.altfutures.com