Assessment of Impact of Russian Nuclear Fleet Operations on Russian Far Eastern Coastal Regions

1
Assessment of Impact of Russian Nuclear Fleet
Operations on Russian Far Eastern Coastal
Regions
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
of the Radiation Safety of the Biosphere Project

• Presented at RAD Project Group Seminar by
• YSSPer Alexander Mahura
• IIASA Laxenburg
• 8 August 2001

2
RADIATION RISK SOURCES
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
3
MAIN PURPOSE QUESTION OBJECTIVES
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS

• MAIN PURPOSE
• Combine atmospheric transport modeling
  analyses with radiological assessment to evaluate
  consequences of an accident at the nuclear risk
  sites

• MAIN QUESTION
• What is probability of the radionuclide
  atmospheric transport in a case of an accident at
  the nuclear risk sites (NRS) in the Russian Far
  East

• SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
• Examine atmospheric transport patterns from the
  selected sites
• Determine probability of fast transport of
  radioactivity released from sites
• Evaluate possible impacts of removal processes
  during transport

4
RAD FARECS HIGHLIGHTS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
Research Tools Trajectory Model
Exploratory/Cluster/Probability Field
Analyses

• References
• (Basics in Merrill et al. 1985 Black 1984
  etc.)
• (Applications in Mahura et al. 1997 Jaffe et
  al. 1998
• Mahura et al. 1999 Baklanov et al. 2000
  Mahura et al. 2001 etc.)

• Model Grid Domain 2.5N - 77N 90E -
  82.5W
• Input Data National Center for Environmental
  Prediction USA

• Trajectory Type Forward trajectories at
  various levels
• boundary layer free troposphere
• Time Scale Twice per day (at 00 and 12 UTC)
• during 1987-1996

5
TRAJECTORY vs. MODEL
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
What is Atmospheric Trajectory   Modeled
pathway of an air parcel advected by a wind
field backward or forward in time from a chosen
location
Why is Atmospheric Trajectory Model     Diagnos
e source-receptor relationship for air
pollutants   Assess transport pathways of
tracers   Evaluate air flow patterns within
meteorological systems
  Evaluate air flow patterns within
meteorological systems
6
EXAMPLES OF TRAJECTORIES
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
7
RAD FARECS TASKS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
Task I - III TRAJECTORY MODELING
Task IV STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF
TRAJECTORIES 1. Fast Transport 2.
Average Transport 3. Airflow 4.
Atmospheric Transport Pathways 5. NRS Impact
Task V REPORTING OF RESULTS 1. YSSPer
Research Report 2. WWW-version of the
Report 3. Matlab Oriented Visualization
Software 4. CD FARECS Study (ALL) 5.
Contribution to Peer-Reviewed Paper
8
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TRAJECTORIES
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
What Data We Use for Statistical Analyses
5-day forward trajectories originated over
NRSs
What We Look For Monthly Seasonally
Yearly by Layer Variations
1) Apply Probability Fields Analysis Probability
Fields Fast Transport (1d) Airflow (5d)
Average Transport (0.5-3d)
2) Apply Cluster Analysis Mean Clusters Atmospher
ic Transport Pathways
3) Apply Exploratory Data Analysis General
Statistics Nuclear Risk Site Impact
9
1) PROBABILITY FIELDS ANALYSIS
2.5 x 2.5 lat/long grids
intersections counting in each cell
1
2
3
4
5

AHI
NRS
10
1A) FAST TRANSPORT PROBABILITY FIELDS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
COMPLETED
Kamchatka NRS Winter
Vladivostok NRS Winter
11
1B) AIRFLOW PROBABILITY FIELDS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
COMPLETED
Kamchatka NRS 1987-1996
Vladivostok NRS 1987-1996
12
1C) AVERAGE TRANSPORT TIME FIELDS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS

• Domain
• 36 sectors (10 )
• distance increments (2)
• 2) Find max intersections in cell
• along sector

COMPLETED LEFT VISUALISATION
. . . . . .
.. .. .. .. ..
.. . ..
.. . . ..
NRS
13
2) CLUSTER ANALYSIS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
Source Alaska-Bilibino NPP Study UAF/ADEC-1997
Input 5 day trajectories Criteria latitude
longitude at each time step Analysis By seasons
entire dataset 1987-1996 Output Mean clusters
(atmospheric transport pathways) of transport
pathway occur
14
ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT PATHWAYS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
Source Alaska-Bilibino NPP Study UAF/ADEC-1997
DELAY DUE TO SAS/STAT
15
3) NRS IMPACT - Regions Specification
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
16
NRS IMPACT Parameters of Interest
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS

• / trajectories reached geographical regions
• / days atmospheric transport will take to
  reach regions
• Boundary layer vs. free troposphere transport
• Average min transport time to reach
  geographical regions
• Distribution of transport by altitude season
  month year

IN PROGRESS
Geographical regions at the greatest risk
17
CONCLUDING REMARKS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
Current Status Task IV V Statistical
Analysis Report Writing
in progress
What is probability of the radionuclide
atmospheric transport in a case of an accident
at the nuclear risk sites in the Russian Far East
FARECS Study Information
http//www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/RAD/WWW_FARECS/PR
OJECT.HTML
18
APPLICABILITY OF RESULTS
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS
Initial estimates of probability of the
atmospheric radionuclide transport in the
event of an accident
Improve emergency response to radionuclide
releases from the nuclear risk sites
locations
Social economical consequences studies of
the nuclear risk sites impact for population
environment of the neighboring countries
Multidisciplinary risk vulnerability
analysis probabilistic assessment of
radionuclide meso- regional- long-range
transport
Modeling testing of the higher resolution
models
19
THANK U THANK U THANK U
FAR East Coastal StudyFARECS

• Financial Support
• Swedish National Member Organization (NMO)
• United States Department of Energy (US DOE)

• Computer Facilities Resources Databases
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
  Boulder Colorado USA
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria

• Credits and Thanks
• Drs. A. Baklanov DMI DENMARK
• J. Merrill U of RI USA
• R. Andres U of ND USA
• D. Jaffe U of W USA
• R. Bergman L.Thanning FOA SWEDEN
• J. Harris NOAA CMDL USA
• S. Morozov INEP KSC RAS RUSSIA
• A. Novatchkov H. Klarn IIASA AUSTRIA