Cost Integration Model

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Cost Integration Model March 2004 Wayne
Johnson
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Background
What Is It? Why is it needed?
A spreadsheet tool to aid analysts construct Life
Cycle Cost (LCC) estimates To simplify the
integration of cost data to support an array of
analyses including independent cost estimates,
budget submissions, assess cost realism, etc.
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Applications

• Already in employed in
• Orbital Space Plane (OSP)
• - LCC Estimates
• Budget Formulation Exercises
• Sensitivity analyses
• Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT)
• LCC analysis
• Sensitivity analyses
• FASTPACT Environment

Framework for Advanced Systems Trade-offs
using Probabilistic Analysis of Concepts and
Technologies
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Framework
Development Costs
Operations Costs

• Design Development
• System Test Hardware
• Production
• Facilities
• System Integration
• Spares
• DDTE Surge Capability

• Variable
• - Ground
• - Flight
• Fixed
• - Ground
• - Flight
• - Program Support

Life Cycle Cost Estimate Engine
Technology Costs
Disposal Costs

• 3 Year Cycle
• Begins at end of
• Operations Phase

• Temporal Characteristics

Figures of Merit
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Life Cycle Cost Profiles
Constant Year
Real Year
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Figures of Merit

• Total Technology Cost
• Total DDTE Cost
• Total Production Cost
• Total Operations Cost
• Total Acquisition Cost (DDTE Production
  costs)
• Peak Acquisition Cost (and year of occurrence)
• Peak Life Cycle Cost (and year of occurrence)
• Total Life Cycle Cost

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LCC Engine Features

• Phasing Algorithms (up to 10 yrs.)
• Cost Skewing functions (beta curves)
• Switch Between Constant and Real Year Dollar
  Output
• Conditional Cell Coloring/Cell Shading
• VBA Objects to Facilitate Sensitivity Analysis
• Reusable and Expendable Component Production
  Units
• Annual Launch Rate Input (steady state with 4
  yr. ramp up)
• Production Learning Curve
• Toggle switches to turn on/off selected elements
• Automatic Calculations for Spares and Surge
  Categories

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Screen Display
Metrics/Outputs
Active Elements
Global Factors
On/Off Toggle
Cost Skewing (Pull Down Menu)
Time Phasing Calculations
VBA Objects (Increment Spinners)
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Model Demonstration
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Future Improvements

• Integration of traffic models
• - Process driven (i.e., TAT) operations modeling
• Addition of uncertainty bounds to cost estimates

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Summary

• Innovative spreadsheet tool for consolidating
  system or
• architecture Life Cycle Cost elements
• Phasing algorithms eliminate Cut and Paste
  approach
• VBA functions facilitate sensitivity analyses
• Modular design promotes flexibility
• Serves as a foundation for conducting economic
  analyses