Title: Garrett County Total NonAgricultural Employment First Quarter 1996 through First Quarter 2003
1Are Those Gray Clouds or Silver Linings? What the
Data Tell Us about the Economy
On Behalf of Maryland
GFOA
By Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October
27, 2006
2I. Worsening Economic Imbalances
3Components of GDP, 2006Q2
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
4University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
SurveySeptember 2001 through October 2006
Between Aug. 2005 and Sept. 2005, the consumer
sentiment index dropped 12.2 points, the largest
one-month decline since December 1980.
Source Economy.com, The Conference Board
5Retail Food Services SalesJanuary 2001 through
September 2006
Source Dismal.com
6Change in Gross Domestic Product vs. Real
Disposable Personal Income, 2004Q2 2006Q2
2005 GDP 3.5 2005 RDI 1.4
Source BEA
7Corporate Profits (SAAR)2001Q1 through 2006Q2
Source BEA
With inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
815-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates, January 1995
through September 2006
Source Freddie Mac
9U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through
September 2006
Source Economy.com, Census Bureau
10U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999
through September 2006
Source Economy.com
11U.S. Existing Home Sales September 2001 through
September 2006
Existing median home prices fell 2.5 percent,
the largest decline in nearly four decades
Source Economy.com
12Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (154) Annual
Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation
2006Q2 vs. 2005Q2
Baltimore 7.7 New York
8.4 Philadelphia 11.4 Boston
0.6 Washington, D.C. 3.3
Source National Association of Realtors
13Housing Opportunity Index1993Q1 through 2006Q2
Source National Association of Home Builders
Housing Opportunity Index the share of homes
affordable for median incomelower index
indicates less affordability
14Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA
Jurisdiction, September 2005 vs. September 2006
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland September 2005 22,909 September
2006 41,405
152005 Residential Building Permits per 100
Households (2005 estimates) by select Regions
Source U.S. Census Bureau
BW Corridor includes Anne Arundel, Howard,
Montgomery and Prince Georges counties
16Housing Price Appreciation of Single-Family
HomesMaryland vs. Virginia vs. United States
1999Q1- 2006Q2
1. Arizona 6. Washington 2. Florida 7.
Maryland 3. Idaho 8. D.C. 4. Oregon 9. New
Mexico 5. Hawaii 10. Utah
Source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight
17Average Home Price by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction,
September 2006
Source Maryland Association of Realtors
18NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S.
DollarsJanuary 1995 through October 17, 2006
Source Energy Information Administration
19U.S. Personal Savings Rate vs. NYMEX Crude Oil
Prices, January 2002 through August 2006
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis Energy
Information Administration
20CPISeptember 2006
CPI 2.1 Core CPI 2.9
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI All items less food and energy
21NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, January 2001
through September 2006
Source NFIB Small Business Economic Trends,
August 2006
22U.S. Trade Deficit, January 2001 through August
2006
Source Dismal.com
23Value of the Dollar (Broad Dollar Index) January
1999 through September 2006
Source Federal Reserve Board
Broad Dollar Index a weighted average of the
foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar
against the currencies of a broad group of major
U.S. trading partners.
24U.S. Broad Dollar Index, April 11, 2006 through
May 11, 2006
Source Federal Reserve Board
25U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2010
Source Congressional Budget Office
2006-2010 data are projections
26II. Silver Linings
27Dow Jones Industrial Average June 8, 2006
through October 25, 2006
28SP 500 Index Price, January 1999 through
September 2006
Source Yahoo Finance
29Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2006Q2
2006Q2 2.6
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
30Net Change in U.S. JobsJanuary 2000 through
September 2006
9/06 51,000
Between March 2001 and July 2002, the nation lost
nearly 2.4 million jobs.
Over the last 12 months (Sept. to Sept.) the U.S.
added 1.773 million jobs
Source Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics
31National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
GroupsSeptember 2006 v. September 2005Absolute
Change
1,773k All Told
Bush Scorecard Private Sector
1,989,000 Public Sector 1,153,000 Total
3,142,000
Source Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics
32Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
GroupsSeptember 2006 v. September 2005Absolute
Change
MD Total 27.3K 1.1 US Total 1,773K 1.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
33Baltimore MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry
Sector Groups (NSA) September 2006 v. September
2005Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total 11.8K 0.9 MD
Total 27.3K 1.1 US Total 1,773K 1.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
34Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employmentby
Industry Sector Groups (NSA)September 2006 v.
September 2005Absolute Change
DC MSA Total 72.2K 2.5 US Total 1,773K
1.3
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
35Employment Growth by Maryland Metro- and
Micropolitan Areas, September 2006 vs. September
2005
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
36Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) September
2006
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. unemployment rate September 4.6
37Unemployment Rates (NSA), Maryland
CountiesAugust 2006
Source Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing
and Regulation Bureau of Labor Statistics
38Conclusions
- Soft landing the most likely outcome for 2007
- Risks remain (oil/energy, the dollar, interest
rates and the flu) - The macroeconomic imbalances are huge and
widening - The Federal Reserve Chairman will come under
enormous criticism.
39H5N1
- The H5N1 strain remained largely in South-East
Asia until last summer, when Russia and
Kazakhstan both reported outbreaks. - More recently, there was an outbreak in Nigeria
and evidence of human-to-human transmission in
Indonesia.
Source MSNBC BBC News
40Thank You
- You can always reach me at abasu_at_sagepolicy.com
- Youll be hearing a lot from us the balance of
the year. - Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at
410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) - Please contact us when you require economic
research policy analysis.