Sustainable Development Programme

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Sustainable Development Programme

• Public Perceptions and Decision-making

Malcolm Grimston Associate Fellow

• World Nuclear Association Annual Conference
• September 6, 2002

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Public Perceptions and Decision-making

• THE ADVOCATES
• Belief that major elements of the future are
  predictable certainty about general projections
  of various energy sources. (For example,
  renewables demonstrably have the practical
  potential to remain only relatively minor players
  in world energy supply.)
• THE OPPONENTS
• Belief that major elements of the future are
  predictable certainty about general projections
  of various energy sources. (For example,
  renewables demonstrably have the practical
  potential to dominate world energy supply.)

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Public Perceptions and Decision-making

• THE ADVOCATES
• Absolutely certain about the future role of
  nuclear power (a major and important one), and
  about issues such as nuclear waste (not a
  difficult technical problem).
• THE OPPONENTS
• Absolutely certain about the future role of
  nuclear power (no role at all), and about issues
  such as nuclear waste (a technically insoluble
  problem).

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Public Perceptions and Decision-making

• THE ADVOCATES
• Arrogance born out of belief in infallibility of
  own analysis.
• THE OPPONENTS
• Arrogance born out of belief in infallibility of
  own analysis.

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Public Perceptions and Decision-making

• THE ADVOCATES
• Belief that the public is irrationally frightened
  of nuclear power. If only people could be
  properly educated they would become more
  pronuclear and support the nuclear industry.
• THE OPPONENTS
• Belief that the public is irrationally complacent
  about nuclear power. If only people could be
  properly educated they would become more
  antinuclear and support antinuclear campaigns.

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Public Perceptions and Decision-making

• THE ADVOCATES
• Characterisation of opponents as either fools or
  ill-intentioned.
• THE OPPONENTS
• Characterisation of opponents as either fools or
  ill-intentioned.

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Public Perceptions and Decision-making

• THE ADVOCATES
• Belief that government is not to be trusted to
  take wise decisions as it is too much influenced
  by the antinuclear media and pressure groups.
• THE OPPONENTS
• Belief that government is not to be trusted to
  take wise decisions as it is too much influenced
  by the nuclear industry and its supporters.

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Reasons for attitudes to nuclear industry

• Construction times and costs of many plants
  higher than projected.
• Performance of many plants disappointing.
• Accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.
• (Perceived) arrogance and secretiveness of
  nuclear spokesmen in many countries.

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Reasons for attitudes to nuclear industry

• Suspicion that the industry and its supporters
  were able to put undue pressure on government and
  regulators.
• Critics of the industry often had no apparent
  vested interest.
• Links to the military.
• Overselling of nuclear technology, especially in
  its early days.

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Reasons for attitudes to nuclear industry

• Growing disillusionment with science and
  technology, and with the experts know best
  attitude.
• Wider decline of deference towards authority
  (including, for example, politicians and
  regulatory bodies).
• Changing perceptions of availability of
  alternatives.

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Does it matter?

• Since 1978, 14 GW of nuclear power plants, and
  one MOx fuel production plant, have been closed
  or halted in advanced stages of construction for
  non-economic reasons in six OECD countries
  (Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the
  USA), some as a direct result of referenda. 
• Italy has phased out nuclear power, Germany, the
  Netherlands and Sweden have adopted formal
  phase-out policies by law, Switzerland adopted a
  ten-year moratorium on new construction in 1990,
  and Belgium has taken a policy decision to phase
  out nuclear power. 
• A number of countries which do not have operating
  nuclear power plants, such as Australia, Austria,
  Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Norway and Poland, have
  put in place legal or policy obstacles to nuclear
  power.Italy has phased out nuclear power.

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Attitudes towards nuclear power
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Innovative decision-making

• Innovative decision-making techniques aim to be
• informed - they seek an informed public
  viewpoint, not instant reactions
• deliberative - they produce views reached through
  interactive group discussion
• independent - they can be independent of the
  bodies concerned with a final decision
• inclusive they seek to involve a wide range of
  interested parties, including those who are
  sometimes disenfranchised or underrepresented by
  traditional approaches.