Title: BOOMING INDIAN ECONOMY: WHAT IS IN IT FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING
1BOOMING INDIAN ECONOMY WHAT IS IN IT FOR
GLOBAL SHIPPING?
- By Ravi K Mehrotra
- Chairman
- Foresight Group, London
At European Parliament, Brussels (Conference Room
3E-2) On 9th November 2005
2When I visited China in late 1980s
3When I visited China in 2005
4When I visited India in late 1980s
5When I visited India in the present day
6WHAT DO THE PREVIOUS FOUR IMAGES TELL US?
- India in 1980
- Ahead of China esp. in free enterprise and per
capita earnings
- China in 1980
- Still struggling with Communist Egalitarian past
and lack of enterprise
- India in 2005
- Full of vigour but political system still trapped
in clanship management of the Nation instead of
taking charge of enterprise
- China in 2005
- Government took charge of enterprise in late
1980s, transforming China into a modern
industrial nation which increased per capita
income by a factor of 5
7BOOMING INDIAN ECONOMY WHAT IS IN IT FOR GLOBAL
SHIPPING ?
- In October Bombay Stock Exchange crossed 8,500
points More than 35 growth in one year - But is it the effect of Globalisation of Indian
Economy or Industrial Revolution? - Will it follow China? Or Brazil?
8IS INDIA THE NEXT BIG STORY?
- Is India ready for a repeat of the China Effect
on Global Shipping? - Indias Intellectual Industry Growing, Why?
- India presently lacks development of
infrastructure and full utilisation of labour
force more than 20 population unemployed or
partly-employed - India is the worlds largest democracy but has
archaic labour employment laws
9Total GDP and PPP GDP 2004
10GDP Growth 2000 to 2050
Source Goldmann Sachs The Path to 2050
11WEAKNESSES OF INDIAN ECONOMY
- Still dependent on agriculture 25 of GDP and
40 of labour employment - Labour Laws archaic contributes to keeping
people below poverty line - Political system controlled by clan mentality
- Day-to-day economic activity shackled in
bureaucracy - Legal system slow time consuming
- Acute shortage of infrastructure development in
the country
12Urbanisation Trends
Urbanisation Trends
World Population Prospects The 2004
Revision United Nations Population Database
Population Division
13Value of Merchandise Exports Imports
14STRENGTHS OF INDIAN ECONOMY
- Self-sustaining not implanted by foreign
investments to utilise cheap labour - Industrial Growth improved from 6-7 to 11.7
- Largest middle-class purchasing power
- Largest number of Professionals
- Largest percentage of computer literate people
- Self-sufficient in food production in fact net
exporter
15China vs. India FDI Attractiveness
Source FDI Confidence Index. A.T. Kearney.
October 2004. Volume 7
16Infrastructure ) Investments
Source China Statistical Yearbook, RBI, Morgan
Stanley Research
17SUMMARY ON INDIA
- It will still take time to sort out distortions
in society and its economy - Acute shortage of infrastructure development in
the country - Above two weaknesses will limit economic growth
- For next 5 years India will have a negative trade
balance - Population growth means young labour force for
next 20 years - Hydrocarbon exploration in river deltas due
perennial rivers from Himalayas will contribute
to India being self-sufficient in energy - Due globalisation of Indian economy Bombay Stock
Exchange will continue in positive direction
18CONCLUSION
- India will reach 8 Growth Rate in next 5 years
- Economy will grow to between 10 12 between
2010 2015 - QUOTE We can be a developed Nation by 2020 if
we make this our Mission Statement Dr A P J
Abdul Kalam, Indian President - Will India fulfil the Presidents Statement?
- Will Indias Development have an effect on Global
Shipping? - Will International Ship Owners reap similar
profits which they had from China over the last
two years?
19BOOMING INDIAN ECONOMY WHAT IS IN IT FOR
GLOBAL SHIPPING?
By Ravi K Mehrotra Chairman Foresight Group,
London
At European Parliament, Brussels (Conference Room
3E-2) On 9th November 2005