Rapid Metabolic Change as a Chance and a Threat to Sustainability: The Case of Amazonia

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Rapid Metabolic Change as a Chance and a Threat
to Sustainability The Case of Amazonia

• Marina Fischer-Kowalski (Vienna)
• Norbert Fenzl (Belem)
• José A. da Costa Machado (Manaus)
• Hercilio C. Bohorquez (Caracas)
• Prepared for Open Meeting of the Global
  Environmental Change Research Community
• Rio de Janeiro, Oct. 6-8, 2001

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Preface
The following presentation is based upon a
preliminary analysis of data on Brazil and
Venezuela generated within the EU-financed
project Amazonia 21 (http//www.amazonia21.org/)
. We related these data to national material flow
accounts for various other countries, from
various sources (among them most prominently
World Resources Institute Adriaanse et al. 1997,
Matthews et al. 2000). Our analysis aims at
illustrating whether MFA is an adequate tool for
issues of sustainability. The reader should be
aware, though, that despite many efforts (see for
example Steurer/Eurostat 2001) data reliability
and comparability across countries is far from
excellent, and so our conclusions should be
considered rather as grounded hypotheses than as
final, well established results. For a more
elaborate discussion see Fischer-Kowalski Amann
2001.
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Overview

• The Context Amazonia 21
• Metabolic Transition what is that?
• Metabolic transition in a globalized economy
  Brazil and Venezuela
• Is global trade driving environmental
  exploitation of the periphery?
• Conclusions

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1) The Context Amazonia 21

• Ongoing EU-financed research teams from
  Panamazonian Countries (PACs) and Europe
  participating
• Response to Agenda 21-setting by PAC, searching
  for less destructive ways of economic development
• Is material flow analysis an adequate tool to
  define sustainable development, and develop
  strategies, for PAC?

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2) Metabolic transition what is that?

• Metabolic transition major change in
  socio-ecological regime
• It implies a qualitative transformation of the
  mode of subsistence of a society, and therefore
  of the society nature interrelation
• Core change in energy metabolism

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Socio-ecological regimes in world history

• per capita annual use
• Energy Material
• Basic human metabolism 3,5 GJ 1 t
• (biomass intake by nutrition)
• Hunter-gatherers 10-20 GJ 2-3 t
• (uncontrolled solar energy use)
• agrarian societies 60-80 GJ 4-5 t
• (controlled solar energy use)
• industrial societies 250 GJ 20-22t
• (fossil energy use)

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In history Symptoms of Metabolic transition
fromagrarian to industrial mode

• Rapid increase in fossil energy use
• Rapid population growth
• Rapid increase in income (GDP)

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Historical examples fossil fuels use in Austria
and UK
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Fossil fuels, Population, GDP in Brazil
Venezuela 1975-1995
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In history Symptoms of metabolic transition
from agrarian to industrial mode continued...

• Relief on agricultural and forestry land use
• Per capita levels energy materials use
  transition from agrarian to industrial level

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Biomass used in Brazil Venezuela 1975-1995
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Per capita levels of materials use history and
present
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3) Metabolic transition now Symptoms of
extractive economies

• Intensification of agriculture and forestry,
  increasing pressure on land
• High per capita materials and energy use
• Very high materials intensity of the economy
  (tons per unit GDP)

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Per capita materials use 1995
Sources IFF, Amazonia21, WRI
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Per capita income, 1995
Sources World Bank
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Material Intensity 1995
Sources IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, World Bank
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Metabolic transitions in the globalized economy

• Declining material intensity in the industrial
  core countries
• Alarming Rising materials intensity at the
  periphery (extractive economies)
• Rich industrial countries externalize materially
  intensive processes, and environmental burdens

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Material Intensity declining in industrial, but
rising in developing countries
GDP (real, constant)
Material Input (DMI)
Sources IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, OECD
Material Intensity (DMI/GDP)
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4) Is global trade driving environmental
exploitation in peripheral economies?
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Imports Exports in tons as share of material
input, 1975-1995
Exports share of DMI
Imports share of DMI
Sources IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, OECD
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Physical trade balances tons imported minus tons
exported, 1995
Sources IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, World Bank
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Material Intensity (tons/) of International
Trade, 1995
Sources Amazonia21, IFF, WRI
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5) Conclusions

• Amazonian countries have a specific metabolic
  profile different from history, different from
  present-day industrial countries
• an unsustainable profile high material input,
  low income, rising material intensity
• this profile is reinforced by international trade
• no wait and see ongoing structural change is
  not working towards sustainability

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