Ocean ProshutinskyHaidvogel CG Left Bay

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Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay)

• What science questions exist for the arctic that
  are best answered with coupled regional models?

• process studies (see next slide also polyna
  studies)
• reconstruction studies based upon control
  scenarios (e.g., ensemble of runs with a range of
  AO forcing, )
• sensitivity studies (e.g., ecosystem response to
  melting ice, )
• coupled response studies (e.g., coastal erosion,
  )
• observational design studies (AON)
• model improvement studies

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Process studies ocean/ice
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Atmosphere
Process studies atmosphere
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Model improvements
AOMIP/OCEAN/ICE
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Model improvements
Atmosphere
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Concerns

• There are not enough observational data for
  model initialization, forcing, validation and
  assimilation.
• A comprehensive AON is urgently needed to satisfy
  needs of both observational and modeling
  communities

• ice coverage / thickness (satellites)
• monitor strategic locations
• profilers
• bathymetry (IBCAO)

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Ocean

• What are the existing modeling and model
  validation efforts aimed towards answering these
  questions?
• MIPs SIMIP,ARCMIP, AOMIP (proposed), CARCMIP
  (status?), Southern Ocean MIP (?)
• Global and regional models (independent
  validation efforts)

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Challenges

• The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve
  existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean
  and terrestrial models and, respectively, global
  climate models
• This work is expensive and requires significant
  financial and labor resources.
• In order to develop a comprehensive arctic model
  it is necessary to involve the entire community
  of arctic researches including modelers and
  observers, scientists and engineers from
  different disciplines.

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Ocean

• What model and model validation projects are on
  the horizon aimed towards answering these
  questions?

• AOMIP proposal was submitted in November 2007
• OCMIP 3
• EcoMIP (US GLOBEC interested)
• DARWIN (self-organizing approach vs IBMs)

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Table 1 AOMIP Project participants.
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13
Ocean

• What arctic science questions cannot be answered
  with limited area regional coupled arctic models?

• any question where dynamic coupling between the
  global and regional models is strong

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Ocean

• What science questions are missing from existing
  efforts?

• mass balance questions (e.g., what are land ice
  sheets doing? How is mass being rearranged in the
  ocean?)
• fate of fresh water inputs from (e.g.)
  Greenland.
• sea ice at high resolution (interactions with
  e.g. tides, mesoscale eddies, submesoscale, )
• transmission/fate of eddy signals across
  non-uniform grids

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Ocean

• What human systems are relevant to the physical
  systems being addressed?  Are there existing
  models for these human systems?
• What are human systems?

• ecosystems/fisheries
• navigation
• energy exploration
• coastal erosion
• national security

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Ocean

• What are reasonable boundaries on the Arctic
  System for your area of research?

• down to 58N, including Bering Sea, Norwegian
  Sea, Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, etc. Sea of
  Okhotsk (?)