Nate Shenck

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Sustainable Energy

• Nate Shenck

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U. S. Energy Consumption
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (March
2001)
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Global Consumption
Region of Industrialization/ Modernization
1 toe 7.33 barrels
Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy
2003
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General Observations

• U.S. is worlds largest producer, consumer and
  net importer of energy.
• Biggest consumer of US energy is transportation
  (25.9) oil provides nearly all energy for this
  sector 60 of which is imported.
• Fossil fuels are 85 of energy source in the U.S.
  world consumption is growing.
• Almost 2/3 of all spent energy is wasted, mostly
  in electric grid and transportation sector.
  (Does not account for end user waste)

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Sustainability -- Definition

• A system that is sustainable can maintain
  indefinitely a set of key characteristics within
  specified ranges.
• Sustainable energy policy must consider social,
  economic and scientific issues.
• Brundtland Report (UN - 1987) Sustainable
  development meets the needs of the present
  without compromising the ability of future
  generations to meet their own needs.

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Why Sustainability Now?

• In the past, expansion gave access to greater
  resources without commensurate understanding
  of/concern for effects.
• Tragedy of the Commons Hardin, 1968
• Economic system does not account for increases in
  the ecological and political cost of energy.
• Desire to decouple our economic, social and
  geopolitical interests.

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Balancing Two Views

• Human-centered view
• Maintain living standards Includes health,
  social, political and economic standards
• Bio-centered view
• Ecological/Environmental protection Includes
  pollution, ecological diversity and global warming

• They consider similar issues, but place different
  importance on specific dimensions.
• Human-centered capital is often interchangeable.
• Bio-centered is difficult to characterize/exchange
  .

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Defining Key Characteristics

• Role play
• The Consumer
• The Energy Industry
• The Environmentalist
• The World Community
• How do the key characteristics and sacrifices
  vary?

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Consider the Following

• Climate Change
• National Security
• Personal Safety
• Standard of Living
• Technological Advancement
• Isolated Ecological Impact
• Global Economic Expansion Opportunity
• Economic Stability
• Personal Liberty

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Effects of Energy Policy
IMPORTANCE
Need Convenience
Global Economic Expansion Opportunity
Climate Change
National Security
Technological Advancement
Isolated Ecological Impact
SCOPE
Individual Collective
Economic Stability
Standard of Living
Personal Safety
Personal Liberties
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Difficulties with Instituting Sustainability

• Determination and measurement of the
  sustainability indicators are difficult.
• Include highly complex systems (climate)
• Competing models (economics)
• Not well-suited for mathematical analysis
  (ecological)
• Naturally self-interested (social political)
• How to proceed in a way that protects
  bio-centered interests?

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Precautionary Principle

• Precautionary Principle Where there are
  threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack
  of full scientific certainty shall not be used as
  a reason for postponing cost-effective measures
  to prevent environmental degradation. (UN 1992)
• Safe until proven harmful harmful until
  proven safe have significantly different
  implications in the face of inconclusive data.

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Where We Stand

• Energy sustainability depends upon
• Effective energy reserves
• (net reserve) (energy to extract, convert
  transport) (non-energy uses)
• Effective renewable energy (the asymptote)
• Other fixed sources (Nuclear, ???)
• We can affect through
• Changing use patterns
• Efficient production and use
• Integration of renewables/cogeneration
• Expanding into new technologies (???)

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Energy Use -- History
COAL
???
WOOD
OIL
GAS
NUCLEAR
Decarbonization is both important for the
environment and a seemingly natural trend in
energy use.
WOOD
23,000 BC
COAL
1,000 AD
OIL
Late 1,800s
GAS
Decarbonization
Mid 1,900s
NUCLEAR
Mid 1,900s
???
Slide concept from The Arlington Institute 2003
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Potential in Renewables

• Solar
• 150x150 mi2 Si-cells to power the U.S. (0.3
  area)
• Ignores some serious engineering hurdles
• Distributed system increases area requirement
• Cells produce x20 their cost in energy
• Amortized w/ mortgage, less than .25/kWh
• Wind
• Producing energy at less than .05/kWh (2001)
• At current growth rate (18), will make up 6 of
  U.S. generation by year 2020.

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Decentralized Electric Power

• Wind solar are amenable to decentralization.
• Power produced closer to the load has lower
  energy cost.
• Must consider effects on six networks of electric
  power industry
• - Physical - Fuel/energy
• - Regulatory - Business
• - Money - Information and control
• Nuclear may see a resurgence to bridge the gap
  between electric power today and sustainable
  policy of future.

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Transportation Energy Strategy
The Arlington Institute 2003
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Spare Slides
The Arlington Institute 2003
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Where Does Our Oil Come From?
The Arlington Institute 2003
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U.S. Energy Use by Fuel
Energy Information Authority (DOE) -- 2003
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Technical Issues

• Reliability
• The U.S. Electric Grid is a vital national
  interest
• Availability of resource
• Modularity and Scalability
• System response time
• Construction lead time
• Integration and intertie

Technology ?? Policy