Transportation

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Transportation

• Dennis Silverman
• U. C. Irvine
• Physics and Astronomy

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Bushs Ethanol Fuel Proposal

• Bush proposes to drop gasoline usage by 20 in 10
  years by increasing ethanol to 15 of automotive
  fuel, and increasing car mileage standards.
  Responses below.
• Public Citizen, called ethanol "neither a clean
  nor renewable fuel" and noted that dual-fuel
  vehicles that can use either ethanol or gasoline
  are allowed to meet lower fuel economy standards
  even if they are never filled with ethanol.
  Moreover, the group said, the widespread use of
  ethanol is "impractical" because of
  infrastructure difficulties.

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Ethanol

• Getting 15 from ethanol is the entire corn crop,
  so we need another source such as sugar cane or
  ethanol from cellulose in stalks or switch grass.
  Corn is mainly used for animal feed and fructose
  in foods.
• Price of corn has doubled.
• Peru planning to grow sugar cane in new farmland
  and export ethanol to U.S. Sugar cane produces
  twice as much ethanol per acre as corn. Grows
  best in tropics.
• Price of sugar has increased.

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Bushs Mileage Standard Increase

• Public Citizen backed a recently passed House
  bill to revoke 14 billion in oil subsidies and
  dedicate the money to developing clean fuels and
  increasing energy efficiency. "But Bush has
  threatened a veto" of the bill,
• A second major plank of Mr. Bushs energy
  proposal calls for increasing fuel-efficiency
  standards of cars and trucks by 4 percent a year
  about one mile per gallon starting in 2010
  for cars and 2012 for trucks. He wants authority
  be taken from Congress and given to the Dept. of
  Transportation. Also, not use a fleet average
  but do it for each model, letting heavier cars
  get off easier.
• "Raising the fuel economy of the cars and trucks
  we drive by 10 miles per gallon over 10 years is
  the simplest step we can take," said Sen. Dianne
  Feinstein (D-Calif.). "This would reduce 18
  percent of greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles
  by 2025. And it would save nearly the amount of
  oil we currently import from the Persian Gulf."

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Contributions to World Oil
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Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Iran
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CO2 Emissions in the US
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CO2 Emissions in the USby End-Use Sector
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US CO2 Emissions from Transportation
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U.S. Carbon emission sources
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DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OFFUEL EFFICIENCY
OPTIONS
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FEDERAL FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDSPROGRAM

• Known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy
  (CAFE) standards
• Each model year (MY) manufacturers are required
  to
• - Achieve average of 27.5 mpg for fleet of new
  passenger cars
• - Achieve average of 20.7 mpg for fleet of new
  light duty trucks (includes minivans and SUVs).
  Increased to 21.6 for MY 2006 and 22.2 for MY2007
  
• Despite its flaws, as a result of CAFE, gasoline
  consumption is down roughly 2.8 million
  barrels/day from what it would be without CAFE
  and greenhouse gas emissions translate to a 7
  reduction in CO2.
• In Europe, per capita gas usage is 286
  liters/year compared to 1,624 liters/year in the
  U. S.

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RECOMMENDED PLAN TO REDUCE CALIFORNIAS
PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE(as proposed by CA Energy
Commission Air Resources Board)

• I. Adopt a statewide goal of reducing demand for
  on-road gasoline and diesel to 15 below the 2003
  demand level by 2020 and maintain that level for
  foreseeable future. (Or, 25 reduction to get to
  1990 levels. AB32)
• II. Work in the national political arena to gain
  establishment of federal fuel economy standards
  that double the fuel efficiency of new cars,
  light trucks and SUVs.
• III. Establish a goal to increase use of
  non-petroleum fuels to 20 of on-road fuel
  consumption by 2020 and to 30 by 2030.

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OVERALL SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF OPTIONS IN ON-ROAD
DEMAND FORECAST
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Vehicles as Part of the Solution?

• 8 cylinder vehicles are 25 of the market.
• 6 cylinder are 41.
• 4 cylinder are only 30.
• Hybrids are 1.5, expected to grow to 4 in 6
  years.
• Moving motorists down one step in engine size
  would clearly increase the fleet mileage, without
  inventing or buying new technology.
• Plug-in hybrids which can do 40 mile trips on
  electricity alone, but have to say where extra
  electricity will come from.
• They cost 2,000 more than a regular hybrid.
• But their usage is equivalent to paying 1.00 to
  1.50 per gallon of gas.
• Cylinder-shutdown engines that change 8 to 4
  cylinders when cruising, can save 10-20 on gas
  mileage.
• Modern Diesel engines are clean and can save 20
  on CO2 production in getting 20-30 more mpg.

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Comparative National Fuel Economies
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Automotive conservation solutions

• People could
• Drive less aggressively on the gas pedal
• Drive at the speed limit
• Plan trips for less total driving
• Use their higher gas mileage vehicle more
• People could use car pooling
• People could take public transportation
• These actions would actually have an immediate
  effect on lowering consumption and bringing down
  the price of gas.

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Transportation Substitutions

• Telecommute only 5 of employees do so.
• Buy over the internet, with serial delivery,
  rather than each person going to the mall. Also,
  goods dont have to be delivered to shops first.
• Telephone or Video conferencing or selling,
  rather than air transport (already training teens
  by myspace)
• Email rather than snail-mail
• Internet websites saving journal, book and
  document production from trees, and trips to the
  library
• Coming electronic books and newspapers on a
  tablet
• More home entertainment saving trips to cinema

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The Hydrogen Dream

• Hydrogen is a transmitter of energy, not a
  source
• Must use fossil fuel (creating CO2 ) or high
  temperature reactors or solar or electrical power
  to create H2 -- needs research
• Need fuel cell technology improvement (current
  3000/kw vs 30/kw for a gas engine).
• Currently, 35,000 for an automotive fuel cell
• Fuel cells combine 2H2 with O2 to make 2H2O.
• Yet fuel cells are 60 efficient compared to 22
  for gas and 45 for a diesel engine.
• Catalysts in fuel cells are expensive and can be
  poisoned by impurities.

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California Hydrogen Dreaming

• Need to establish a distribution system on as
  large a scale as for gasoline
• California is establishing a Hydrogen highway of
  200 stations for about 100 million
• Current cost of hydrogen is 4 times that of
  gasoline
• Compressed hydrogen tank has a range of only 200
  miles (50 for Arnolds Hummer demo)
• H2 will probably be stored in a smaller volume
  molecule like NaBH4
• Wont be practical for 30 years
• Physics Today "The Hydrogen Economy"

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Possibility of New Unforseen Energy Solutions

• 100 years of technology discoveries is
  unpredictable.
• In the last century we created
• Autos, petroleum industry, highway system
• Aircraft
• Nuclear Age (Emc²)
• Electronics age TV, computers, cell phones
• Biological Age Starting DNA, Genomics
• Medical diagnosis and care
• Crop improvements
• Industrialization of farming
• Satellites
• Atom smashers, astrophysics, cosmology