OTC 8Hour Ozone SIP Modeling Update Massachusetts SIP Steering Committee Meeting November 2, 2006

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OTC 8-Hour Ozone SIP Modeling Update
Massachusetts SIP Steering Committee
MeetingNovember 2, 2006

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Modeling Domain for Ozone, PM2.5 and Regional Haze
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Whats New

• Use of CMAQ Version 4.5
• Use of MCIP3 for MM5 Post-Processing
• Updated the Base Year Inventory
• Updated the Future Year Inventory

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Emission Inventories in the OTR Domain

• Region 2002
  2009
• OTC (MANE-VU) Version 3 (BaseB1)
  grown
• VISTAS Version G
  grown
• MRPO Version K
  grown
• CENRAP Version B grown
  
• Canada Mixed 2000/2002
  not grown

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REMSAD Emission Tags (Run 1, 2, 3)
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Black Run 1 Red Run 2 Blue Run 3
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2002 BaseB1 Performance Evaluation

• NY DEC computed EPA-suggested evaluation
  statistics for 208 SLAMS/NAMS sites.
• NY DEC examined O3 and precursor data on an
  overall basis as well as by non-attainment area.
• Model statistics posted on NY DEC at
  ftp//ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/kevin

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Patterns of Maximum 8-Hour Ozone Predictions
Compare Favorably with Ozone Observations
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Model Performance Results

• Overall performance for ozone and other
  pollutants can be considered satisfactory. No
  attempt was made to fine-tune the model
  platform.
• Recommend that each state perform similar
  analysis for their respective areas
• Model statistics posted on NY DEC at
  ftp//ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/kevin

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Model Performance in Massachusetts
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2009 OTC Control Strategy Runs

• 2009 OTW/OTB run (VA DEQ)
•   (OTW/OTB controls in all states in modeling
  domain)
• 2009 Beyond OTW/OTB run (NY DEC)
• (Beyond OTW/OTB controls in OTC states only)
• Reminder OTW/OTB mean on the way or on the
  books

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Beyond OTW/OTB Control Measures

• On Road No Changes
• Area Consumer products
  except for VT Portable fuel
  Containers except for VT Asphalt
  Paving in 2009 except for DC,
• MD, ME,
  PA,VT Adhesives and sealants in 2009
  except for
• NH, MD,DC
  ICI Boilers reduction in
  5-county region of
• Philadelphia,
  PA, and MD, NY and NJ
• Non-EGU Point Individual state regulations

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Current Design Values (DVC) Determined from
Observations
Average of 8-hr O3 Design Values for 2000-2002,
2001-2003, and 2002-2004 at OTC monitors
(Current Design Values for the purpose of the
modeled attainment test)
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Relative Reduction Factors (RRF) Calculated From
CMAQ Simulations with 2002 and 2009 BaseB1
Emissions For May 15 September 29
2009 OTW BaseB1
2009 BOTW BaseB1

• RRF calculation was performed for each grid cell,
  based on values in surrounding grid cells (33
  array) and only those days that fulfill the
  threshold criteria as specified in the EPA
  modeling guidance. Uncolored regions are those
  for which no RRF could be calculated per
  guidance, fewer than 5 days greater than 70 ppb
  were predicted in the 2002 base case simulations

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2009 Base Case Future Design Values
(DVF)Calculated as Current Design Values
(DVC) x RRF
DVF 2009 OTW/OTB BaseB1
DVF 2009 BOTW/BOTB BaseB1

• 2009 Design Values for 8-hr O3 at OTC monitors,
  estimated by multiplying the Current Design
  Values with the model-predicted RRF
• These values represent the Future Design Values
  for the purpose of the modeled attainment test.
  2009 OTW/OTB and BOTW/BOTB results are very
  similar

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Attainment Demonstration Goals

• Predicted 2009 ozone design values below 85 ppb
• Predicted 2009 ozone design values up to 87 ppb
• will be accepted by EPA, provided that a good
  weight of evidence (WOE) argument can be made
  that actual design values will be below 85 ppb by
  the end of the 2009 ozone season.

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Preliminary 2009 Design Values above 84 ppb for
OTW and BOTW control scenarios
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Preliminary 2009 Design Values for OTW and BOTW
(at or below 87 ppb WOE target)
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Preliminary 2009 Design Values for OTW and BOTW
(above 87 ppb WOE target)
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OTC 8-Hour Ozone Modeling Run Schedule
1. 2002 BaseB1 performance run (NY DEC)
Done   2.
2009 OTW/OTB run (VA DEQ)
Done  
(OTB/OTW controls in all states in the modeling
domain) 3. 2009 Beyond OTW/OTB run (NY DEC)
Done
(Beyond OTB/OTW controls in OTC states only)

4. Beyond OTW/OTB
controls in OTC states, and CAIRPLUS
late Nov ? (Use state scaling factors from
MARAMA CAIRPLUS IPM run) 5. Other Control
Strategy Scenarios ?
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Whats Next

• Modeling Results to Date Will Be Presented at
  the OTC Fall Meeting on November 15, 2006.