On the role of Scenario

1
On the role of Scenarios for Defence (and
Security) Planning

• Advanced Research Workshop
• Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the
  Security Sector

Velingrad, Bulgaria 21-25 October 2006
NATO Science Committee
René Willems Strategy and Policy Studies TNO
Defence and Security
2
Netherlands Organisation for Applied Research TNO
Core Areas
TNO Defence, Security and Safety
TNO Quality of Life
TNO Science and Industry
TNO Built Environment and Geosciences
TNO Information and Communication Technology
3
Contents

• Challenges
• Coping with Uncertainty
• Strategic Planning
• Scenarios and Analysis
• Illustrative Example
• In Summary

4
the world today

• Global shifts in power
• Ideological and cultural differences underlined
• Technological developments fasten
• Globalisation and access to information and
  production

?
And our understanding of how things work together
lacks. We are hardly able to argue and predict
likely futures, values and costs.
5
Towards non-linear complex systems
Linear system
Complex system
Input
Input
Own initiative
predictable actors and interactions
Dead end streets
Unpredictable actors and interactions
Unpredictable output
Predictable output
6
Contents

• Challenges
• Coping with Uncertainty
• Strategic Planning
• Scenarios and Analysis
• Illustrative Example
• In Summary

7
Deep Uncertainty
Deep uncertainty When we do not know, and/or key
parties to the decision do not agree on, the
system model, prior probabilities, and/or cost
function (Lempert e.a. 2004)
8
Coping with Uncertainty

• Ignore

9
Tools for Strategic Foresight
Prediction
Scenarios
Projection
Source After R. Leemans 2003
10
Different approaches to dealing with uncertainty
Source Robert Lempert, RAND, 2004
11
Contents

• Challenges
• Coping with Uncertainty
• Strategic Planning
• Scenarios and Analysis
• Illustrative Example
• In Summary

12
Long Term Planning In Defence and Security
13
Capability Based Planning
Require-ments
Missions
Task areas
Tasks
Capacities (Soll/Ist)
Priorities
Risk- analysis
Foresights
Planning scenario's
Analysis Prevention Response Evaluation
Task List
Capacities-list
Overall Security Picture
14
NATO DRR
15
Traditional planning

• Traditional analytical methods based on known
  risks and policy options based on predictions
  (trends)

• In current situation of deep strategic
  uncertainty this method is fraught with extreme
  risks
• Underestimates uncertainties
• Competing analyses can lead to gridlock
• Leads to brittle strategies
• False certainties blind policy-makers and lead
  to (potentially quite unpleasant) surprises

16
(modern) adaptive planning
Source After US Dos, 2005
17
Risk and Uncertainty in Capability Planning
Worldview
Self image
Threat
assessment
(Nat) Ambitions
Scenarios
(foreign and security
policy)
Societal Developments
Desired
capabilities
Objective Force
Technological
Legacy Force
(current doctrine
developments
(Doctrine, organization, etc)
organization, etc)
Policy making
(transformation processes)
18
Contents

• Challenges
• Coping with Uncertainty
• Strategic Planning
• Scenarios and Analysis
• Illustrative Example
• In Summary

19
Scenario

• An outline or synopsis of a play
• The book of an opera
• Screenplay
• Shootin list
• Michael Porter a scenario is an internally
• consistent view on the future,
• not a prediction but a possible result
• Stories, an old way of organizing knowledge

20
The world according to ..
21
and a different view
22
Scenario Analysis

• The process is important, often more so than the
  outcome
• Considerations
• Alternatives and selection criteria
• What questions are relevant
• What information is needed
• What are the triggers for decision making
• Stakeholders, their influence on the DM process

Deal with the future, in order to structure the
present Adam Kahane Long Range Planning
Journal, 1992
23
Anatomy of scenario-exercises

• Boundaries
• Spatial global
• Thematic
• Temporal 2025

Source After P. Raskin 2002
24
Contents

• Challenges
• Coping with Uncertainty
• Strategic Planning
• Scenarios and Analysis
• Illustrative Example
• In Summary

25
NATO Long Term Requirements Study
26
Matrix of Drivers and Characteristics
Character- istics
Missions Membership ...
Active US leadership
Threatening China

Drivers
Notional examples!!!
27
Axes
28
Scenario-exercises
Organization Title
Air University, Maxwell AFB AIRFORCE 2025
Australian government Defence White Paper(s)
Boeing Frontiers 2025
Business Council of Australia Aspire Australia 2025
California Institute of Technology Which World?
Canadian Defence Forces A Strategy for 2020
Challenge! Forum Geopolitics The Next Wave
Challenge! Forum Scenarios for 2025
Center for Strategic and International Studies Seven Futures Project
French MoD Plan Prospectif-30
Gallopin, Hammond, Raskin and Swart Branch Points Global Scenarios and Human Choice
Global Business Network Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security
Institute of Nuclear Materials Management Post 9/11 Scenarios
Northrop Grumman Defining the Future of National Security A Planners Guide
29
Identifying driver categories
30
Operationalizing driver categories(2)
Dominant forces
Markets
A
Economic
B
F
G
Political
C
E
State Actors
Non-State Actors
D
31
Example radar chart
32
Future worlds
33
Combining Future Worlds with Planning Situation
Mission Types
Mission Type FW A FW B FW C FW D
Collective Defence of NATO territory V V
Enforcement Operation Counter State V V
Defence against Terrorism Counter Terrorism V V
Defence Of Economic Lines Of Communication V V
Evacuation V V V V
Peace Making V V
34
Analysis-function
Long-term gt 5 jr
Mid/long-term
1
short-term lt 6 mnth
3
Foresight
Scenario(space)s
5
Thinking ahead
Foresightd
Super-empoweredindividuals
6
4
2

• Risk a
• Risk b
• Risk n

• Risk a
• Risk b
• Risk n

Risk Assessment
Security implications
35
In Summary

• deep uncertainty wrt the security environment
• capabilities of forces be adaptive and flexible
• planning for a flexible approach
• systematic approach to guide decision makers
• scenarios and scenario-analyses in support.

36
Literature selection

• van der Heijden, Scenarios, The art of strategic
  conversation, Wiley and Sons, 1996
• Lempert a.o., Shaping the next one hundred years,
  new methods for quantitative, long-term policy
  analysis the RAND Pardee Center, 2003
• Ogilvy Schwartz, Plotting your scenarios GBN
  1998/2004
• Gill Ringland Scenarios in Business, Wiley, ISBN
  0-470-84382-9
  
• Scenarios in Public
  Policy, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84383-7
• Schwartz, The art of the long view Planning for
  the future in an uncertain world
• Robert van Oorschot Future Management, the
  paradox of a controllable future (2003)
• Global Business Environment Shell International
  People and Connections, Global scenarios to 2020
• S de Spiegeleire, R Korteweg Military Matters -
  future NATOs
• NATO review, summer 2006,
• Lt Col T W Russell, Generic Strategic Campaign
  Planning, D Strat Plans / JDCC, May 2005

37
Source The Far Side, Gary Larson
Long Term Planning Conference
The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen The
worlds climate is changing, the mammals are
taking over, and we all have a brain the size of
a walnut