The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism
2 The Rise of Demography
Where does demography fit in to social theory (vs. economy culture politics)
Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past
Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity
Demographic Transition Uneven
Ethnic differentials have had political ramifications but are declining
Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious makeover
Are religious populations more resistant to transition than secular
3 Demography and Politics
Early Christianity spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D.
Mormon church 40 percent growth in past century widening fertility gap
Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US ¾ demographic. Red states have 12-point TFR advantage over Blue in 2004 election
Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist End of History model
4 Q1 Secularisation
As this book will demonstrate
1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless
2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the worlds population. (Inglehart Norris 2004)
Which will dominate religious fertility or secularisation
5 (No Transcript) 6 (No Transcript) 7 (No Transcript) 8 (No Transcript) 9 (No Transcript) 10 (No Transcript) 11 (No Transcript) 12 Conservative religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal secular counterpartsheavily Mormon Utah annually produces 90 children for every 1000 women of child-bearing age. By comparison Vermont -- the only state to send a socialist to Congress and the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only 49Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction Philip Longman The Empty Cradle (2004) 13 (No Transcript) 14 (No Transcript) 15 (No Transcript) 16 (No Transcript) 17 (No Transcript) 18 (No Transcript) 19 Conclusion Secularisation
Variation in Patterns of Secularisation
Europe has secularised in terms of church attendance but not in terms of religious feeling
In Europe more religious (Catholic) countries are secularising faster less religious (mainly Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low (5-10) levels of church attendance
USA has not secularised
20 Conclusion Fertility
After marital status church attendance and religiosity among the strongest predictors of individual fertility
Seems to be increasing its predictive power in secularising (Catholic) countries
In secular (Protestant) countries church attendance insignificant but religiosity significantly predicts fertility
Future Research USA Islamic world demographic predictions 2000-2050
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