A Dying Creed

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A Dying Creed

• The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal
  Capitalism

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The Rise of Demography

• Where does demography fit in to social theory
  (vs. economy culture politics)
• Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past
• Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity
• Demographic Transition Uneven
• Ethnic differentials have had political
  ramifications but are declining
• Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious
  makeover
• Are religious populations more resistant to
  transition than secular

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Demography and Politics

• Early Christianity spread from some 40 converts
  in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300
  A.D.
• Mormon church 40 percent growth in past century
  widening fertility gap
• Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US
  ¾ demographic. Red states have 12-point TFR
  advantage over Blue in 2004 election
• Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist
  End of History model

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Q1 Secularisation

• As this book will demonstrate
• 1. The publics of virtually all advanced
  industrial societies have been moving toward more
  secular orientations during the past fifty years.
  Nevertheless
• 2. The world as a whole now has more people with
  traditional religious views than ever before--
  and they constitute a growing proportion of the
  worlds population. (Inglehart Norris 2004)
• Which will dominate religious fertility or
  secularisation

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Conservative religiously minded Americans are
putting far more of their genes into the future
than their liberal secular counterpartsheavily
Mormon Utah annually produces 90 children for
every 1000 women of child-bearing age. By
comparison Vermont -- the only state to send a
socialist to Congress and the first to embrace
gay unions -- produces only 49Fertility
correlates strongly with religious conviction
Philip Longman The Empty Cradle (2004)
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Conclusion Secularisation

• Variation in Patterns of Secularisation
• Europe has secularised in terms of church
  attendance but not in terms of religious feeling
• In Europe more religious (Catholic) countries
  are secularising faster less religious (mainly
  Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low
  (5-10) levels of church attendance
• USA has not secularised

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Conclusion Fertility

• After marital status church attendance and
  religiosity among the strongest predictors of
  individual fertility
• Seems to be increasing its predictive power in
  secularising (Catholic) countries
• In secular (Protestant) countries church
  attendance insignificant but religiosity
  significantly predicts fertility
• Future Research USA Islamic world demographic
  predictions 2000-2050

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http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html