The Freight Analysis Framework Overview and Uses

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The Freight Analysis Framework Overview and
Uses
Bruce Lambert Office of Freight Management and
Operations
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Presentation Outline

• Why did HOFM develop the FAF
• How has the FAF been used to date
• What has HOFM learned
• Future Product Development

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1. Why did HOFM develop the FAF

• Simply trying to develop database of freight
  movement across modes, commodities and time
  periods to support research efforts in the
  Freight Office.
• Involved
• Synthesis of diverse data.
• Expanded scope from other studies.
• Understanding the relationship of freight,
  geography, and infrastructure.

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DATA SOURCES

• BTS/Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey (All
  Modes)
• BTS Transborder Freight Statistics (Truck, Rail,
  Pipeline)
• STB/FRA Rail Waybill Sample (Rail)
• MarAd and US Army Corps data (Water)
• BTS/FAA (Airport)
• Reebie (Truck)
• Census Bureau 5-year Census and Annual Survey of
  Manufacturers (Truck, Water, Air)
• Private Port Directories (Water)
• DRI Industrial Production Indices (Truck, water,
  air)
• HPMS Database (Truck)
• Truck Configuration estimates (Truck)
• National Highway Network (NHN)
• Agricultural Production Statistics (USDA)

• Trade Association Production Shipment Reports
  (Truck, water, air)
• US Geological Survey Mineral Industry Reports
  (Truck, water)
• Reebie Associates Freight Locater/InfoUSA
  Street-Address Industrial Employment Activity
  (Truck)
• County Population Data (Truck)
• Inter-Industry Trade Patterns (Input/Output
  Table) (Truck, Air)
• Motor Carrier Industry Financial Operating
  Statistics (Truck)
• Railroad Industry Proprietary Rebill Factors
  (Truck)
• Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (Truck)
• Latin American Trade and Transportation Study
  (LATTS) All Modes
• State Traffic Count Data (Truck)

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FAF Development

• Initial Commodity Database Delivered - 00
• Commodity Forecast Developed - 01
• Additional Commodity Database Elements - 01-02
• Highway Capacity Database - 01-02

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Development of Domestic Commodity Database (tons)
Estimate State Economic Activity
Estimate County Economic Activity
Residual - Truck
Apply Forecasted Growth Rates
County to County Freight Flows
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Development of International Commodity Database
(tons)
Border and Maritime Data
Estimate O/D using Supplemental Databases
Estimate Residual Flows using Domestic Traffic
Patterns
Apply Forecasted Growth Rates
County to County Freight Flows
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Freight Forecast Development

• Top-down analysis
• National freight tonnage flows, 1980 through 1998
• 2-digit STCC commodities
• Reduced form equations and forecasts for 2020
• Bottom-up analysis
• 29 regions -- 20 MSAs and 9 Census divisions
• 2-digit STCC commodities by mode
• Linked to business demographics, business
  transactions, and trade flows
• Constrained to national freight tonnage forecasts

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Development of FAF Capacity Analysis

• Need to understand relationship between capacity
  and demand
• Developed capacity estimates for Highways
• Developed ability to manipulate truck flows on a
  national scale
• Unable to determine national capacity models for
  other modes

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Highway Capacity Analysis Approach
Freight network and impedance
Traffic flow map
Conversion of truck tonnage to truck trips
Assign base case (1998) freight
Calibrate network flow with traffic flow data
Assign forecast freight (2010 and 2020)
Commercial Truck Traffic Patterns
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2. How Has the FAF been used to Date

• National Policy Analysis
• Support localized Freight Studies
• Public Awareness of Freight Activity
• Specialized Freight Analysis

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Red lines indicate Interstate Sections. Blue
lines indicate all other roads.
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Estimated Peak Period Congestion, 1998
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Projected Change in Truck Flow from Collapse of
Webbers Falls, OK (Regional)
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Projected National Truck Flow Changes from
Collapse of Webbers Falls, OK
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Items Released from the FAF

• Data release
• Commodity Database State to State flows, by
  Mode, Domestic/International, for 2 Digit STCC,
  1998, 2010, 2020
• Highway Capacity Database Segment level traffic
  counts of total vehicles, total trucks and
  estimated FAF trucks, estimated capacity
• Maps of freight activity for nation, states,
  selected metro areas and gateways
• State Freight Profiles

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3. What Have We Learned?
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The FAF Outputs

• Successful in conveying importance of freight.
• Developed a benchmark for regional studies.
• Illustrated a basic lack of national
  transportation data at a localized level.
• Need for a freight analytical tool for various
  projects and studies.
• The maps have been the most useful product to
  date.

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Who are the FAFs Users?

• Federal Highway Administration
• Other DOT Offices (FMCSA, MarAd)
• State DOTs
• MPOs
• Multistate coalitions
• Trade Associations
• Transportation Providers
• Other Federal Government Users (DOD\ Homeland
  Security-Commerce, USDA, INS)

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Working with non Federal Offices

• Limited release because of data agreement with
  Reebie
• Only State to State Commodity flows by mode
• Loaded Truck Networks
• Maps
• Total truck counts for all MPOs (spreadsheet)
• Working with some states on freight data issues
• The FAF and the Local Research
• The FAF is a supplement, not a replacement, for
  local knowledge
• Users need to understand how to link local
  knowledge and the FAF

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There is a need for a national level
transportation information that provides
information on

• When and where is the truck (or rail car)
  operating?
• What does the vehicle carry?
• What is the true movement of the cargo, including
  intermediate shipments?
• Where are the freight terminals?
• How many trucks are moving on the system?
• What is exposure to congestion, incidents,
  nature, safety?
• How does freight influence system use, and
  conversely, how does system use influence freight?

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The FAF can not answer all questions

• Annual basis
• Forecast is somewhat dated
• State traffic counts do not match with HPMS
  Databases
• Unable to assign all trucks to FAF Commodities
• Only a national or regional analysis with some
  degree of certainty, not a localized, specific
  planning tool.

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4. Future Product Development
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The Freight Toolkit

• Methodology, User Guides and Summary reports
• Truck Counts for each State and MPO region
• Additional maps and analysis of congestion,
  trucking activity
• Highlight linkages to other traffic
  planning/policy modules
• Re-releasing the Highway Capacity Network with
  total tons and value for each segment. Look at
  adding economic variables to the database.
• GeoFreight with BTS and the Office of the
  Secretary

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We are developing a freight toolbox but

• Are these the correct tools?
• How does the FAF link to other FHWA, DOT data and
  analytical research efforts?
• Will these tools be sufficient to program
  projects that are beneficial to freight?
• Can tools be developed to effectively address the
  wide range of local, State, multi-state,
  national, and international needs?
• Can we develop Expertise at all levels to assist
  people in making effective decisions Federal,
  State, MPO