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Report from ILC GlobalGroup 5: Cost and Engineering Updates since Snowmass

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Title: Report from ILC GlobalGroup 5: Cost and Engineering Updates since Snowmass


1
Report from ILC GlobalGroup 5 Cost and
Engineering(Updates since Snowmass)
  • Wilhelm Bialowons, Peter Garbincius and Tetsuo
    Shidara GDE
  • December 8, 2005

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Outline
  • Introduction
  • Summary of GG5 Cost Engineering
  • Establishing ILC standards
  • Cost schedule methodology
  • Industrial issues
  • Update since Snowmass
  • First ideas of cost and schedule methodology
  • Suggestion for project and engineering tools
  • Summary

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Introduction
  • Snowmass GlobalGroup 5 recommendations are very
    ambitious
  • The GDE Cost Engineers are trying to find a
    practical and pragmatic way, which will be
    accepted by the three regions, to speed up the
    process to obtain the cost estimate within the
    next year
  • We are presenting a first idea which will be
    further developed up to beginning of next year
  • Has to be confirmed by the GDE Design and Cost
    Board and the Executive Committee

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Summary of GG5
  • Establishing ILC internal Standards is important
  • Near-term actions
  • Choose an EDMS system
  • Choose cost and schedule software
  • Establish an engineering standards group
  • Choose common engineering tools (e.g. CAD system)
  • Define the cost schedule methodology for ILC
  • Develop parametric models to guide the design
  • Study other large international projects and
    LEARN !
  • Presented by Robert Kephart on August 19, 2005
    at Snowmass

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
EDMS Systems
Directors corner 8 September 2005 There are
many such EDMS systems out there, including ones
developed in some of our high energy laboratories
(CERN, DESY and Fermilab) and others that have
been developed commercially and are broadly used
in large engineering operations. Selecting which
system of collaboration and engineering tools are
right for the ILC is a complex decision. In order
to help us select a system for the GDE, I have
appointed a committee of experts, who have much
relevant experience, including familiarity with
the EDMS systems developed in our high energy
physics laboratories. The committee that will be
charged to make a recommendation to me consists
of Tom Markiewicz (SLAC), John Ferguson (CERN),
Lars Hagge (DESY), Rich Stanek (Fermilab), Nobu
Toge (KEK) and Harry Weerts (Argonne). Tom
Markiewicz will serve as chair. This committee
will create a special web page for this task on
our ILC website, so you will be able to follow
and give inputs as their work unfolds.
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Summary of GG5
  • Cost schedule methodology
  • Need to agree on a standard method for the Basis
    of estimate for the ILC project.
  • Use this method to identify the core cost of
    the project
  • Core cost best guess of the cost of all
    materials, labor, and resources the Project will
    need to be built on an agreed upon schedule
    (50/50 that cost will be this number)
  • An all inclusive estimate. Public with nothing
    hidden or assumed
  • Industrial costs included, but encrypted in a way
    that the numbers will not be useful for rigging
    subsequent bids
  • No hidden contingency or risk management funds

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Summary of GG5
  • Cost schedule methodology
  • Regions can then interpret these numbers in the
    way the regional funding agencies are used to
    seeing
  • Example increase task prices or add contingency
    to manage risk
  • Adjust labor costs as appropriate for the region,
    etc.

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Summary of GG5
  • Cost schedule methodology
  • Agreeing on how to estimate the core costs is
    not enough
  • To estimate the cost schedule, we must also
    have a model for how the project will proceed
  • Example Regional funding agencies might force
    production of klystrons in 3 regions (3 orders of
    200 klystrons will cost more than 1 order of 600)
  • Example A cryogenic plant built in Japan may be
    much more than one built by the same company that
    just built them for the LHC
  • Make a model of how the project might proceed
  • Get regional funding agencies to endorse this
    model early in the game (adjust as required)

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General Methodology
C/S Cost Schedule WBS Work Breakdown
Structure BOE Basis of Estimate RLS Resource
Loaded Schedule
Interpret this Core Cost in each Region
10
GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Updates since Snowmass
  • First ideas of cost and schedule methodology
  • Reliable cost estimate for the Reference Design
    Report (RDR) by the end of 2006
  • One common estimate of the value and labor with
    (not too) different cost for the four sample
    sites
  • Definition of the value (adopting the ITER
    model)
  • Cost estimate on the basis of a (virtual) world
    wide call for tender as competition (world market
    price if exist)
  • Best price for best quality
  • Two vendors for same package for risk
    minimization
  • Parametric cost estimate for scaling (i.e. cost
    improvement)
  • Different parametric cost estimate for design to
    cost for small changes (for large changes redo
    of the project)

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Updates since Snowmass
  • First ideas of cost and schedule methodology
  • Definition of the value (continued)
  • No tax is included
  • No escalation (fixed date i.e. January 2, 2006)
  • No contingency but with risk analysis
  • One currency (fixed exchange rates)
  • External labor is included in the value
  • Internal (institute) labor will be estimated in
    man years
  • Site dependent cost due to real reasons is taken
    into account (i.e. different geology and
    landscape, availability of electrical power and
    cooling water, different cycling rate of
    electrical power etc.)
  • Site depending cost due to formal reasons are not
    taken into account (International treaty above
    national laws)
  • No intellectual property rights

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Updates since Snowmass
  • First ideas of cost and schedule methodology
  • The cost estimate below level one will not be
    public
  • One common design (including the footprint)
  • Unavoidable differences due to physical reasons
  • Common set of rules, codes and laws which fits to
    the regional sets if the cost impact is
    negligible
  • Use of ILC standards if necessary or
  • Adoption after site decision with additional cost
  • Additional regional options are allowed (i.e. use
    of existing machines or substantial cost savings)

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Updates since Snowmass
  • Standard project and engineering tools
  • Standard project tools
  • We are suggesting to start with SLAC WBS tool, MS
    Excel for (parametric) cost estimate and MS
    Project for schedule
  • For crosscheck structure, sheets and schedule
    could be published without cost numbers
  • Adiabatic switch over to professional tools
    (Cobra from Welcom together with Primavera are
    promising (Object and data base orientated) but
    have to be further investigated)
  • Standard engineering tools
  • One high-end 3D-CAD for the design including the
    civil engineering and common models excepting the
    foot print
  • Start with different tools (DESY makes a very
    first layout for an ILC twin tunnel design with
    IDEAS)
  • Adiabatic switch over to common tools and models

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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Parametric Cost Estimate
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Parametric Cost Estimate
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
WorkBreakdownStructure WBS
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
High-end 3D-CAD Modeling
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
High-end 3D-CAD Modeling
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GDE Global Design Effort Meeting INFN LNF
Frascati December 7 to 9, 2005
Summary
  • First ideas of cost and schedule methodology
  • WBS will developed on the basis of the TDR and US
    cold option study
  • Parametric models will be developed
  • Strawman baseline will be used for first round
  • Next steps
  • More detailed design, requirements, parts list
    etc.
  • Definition of work packages
  • Industrial studies for cost drivers
  • Suggestion are welcome and essential

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