ENSO Related Extreme Climate Events during East Asian Summer Monsoon in 19971998

1
Advanced Institute on The Asian Monsoon System
Prediction of Change and Variability, Honolulu,
Hawaii, USA, 2-12 Jan 2008
ENSO Related Extreme Climate Events during East
Asian Summer Monsoon in 1997/1998 Deming
Zhao Email zhaodm_at_tea.ac.cn START Regional
Center for Temperate East Asia IAP/CAS, Beijing,
P. R. China
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Why selecting ENSO related extreme climate events
in EASM

• Climate anomalies in East Asia are seriously
  influenced by the Asian monsoon (Fu Ye, 1988)
• Summer monsoon rainfall and its anomalies can
  disclose the influence of 1997/1998 ENSO cycle
  (Wang et al., 2000) at different stages
• Summer Monsoon moves from the south to the
  northmost position----1997 drought and 1998 flood

3
Current work

• The analysis on ERS derived soil moisture
• Regional climate simulation and heavy rainall
  simulations

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Some abbreviations

• ERS-European Remote Sensing Satellite
• SWI-Soil Water Index

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Global soil moisture gauge stations (Robock et
al. 2000)
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SWI, precip. soil moisture (a averaged, b
anomaly)

• Correlation coefficients
• SWI and precipitation
• 0.479/0.433
• SWI and soil moisture
• 0.453, 0.517 and 0.444
• /0.518, 0.492 and 0.351
• Precipitation and soil moisture
• 0.367/0..313/0.186

(Zhao et al. JHM, in press)
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SWI and precipitation (a averaged b anomaly)
The Yangtze River valley CC 0.695/0.458
North China CORR 0.539/0.453
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Annual variations of SWI and precipitation in YTZ
and NC
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SWI and precipitation anomaly in JJA 1997/1998
(Claudia and Zhao et al. JAG, in review)
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SWI and precipitation anomaly in DJF 1997/1998
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SWI and the rain belt AMJ
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SWI and the rain belt JAS
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SWI annual variations for the years 1992-2000
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Why Earth System Modeling

• RIEMS2-Regional Integrated Environmental
  Modeling System
• RIEMS1/MM5V2------RIEMS2-MM5V3
• BATS and the revised CCM3 coupled
• Chemical and marine models to be coupled
• Environmental problems in China (Fu, Reynolds)
• Natural variability? (oscillation)
• Regional feature? (dust, VOC)
• Global warming? (greenhouse effects)
• Human activity? ( LULC, Water use, pollution)
• Key to answering is coupling
• Ocean, land surface, biogeochemistry
• MAIRS needs
• Explore East Asian Monsoon variability
  regional change
• Asses relative contribution of different
  forcing
• Choose adaptation for government

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Observed and simulated precipitation in JJA 1997
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Observed and simulated precipitation in JJA 1998
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Observed and simulated JJA precip. difference
(1998-1997)
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Observed and simulated JJA T2m difference
(1998-1997)
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The precipitation bias (Simulated Observed)
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T2m Bias (Simulated-Observed)
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Comparisons on long-term precipitation
ARID SEMI-ARID HUMID YTZ
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Heavy rainfall simulation on Jun 13-14 1998 in
China
OBS
NCEP
SWI
(Zhao et al. 2006, AAS)
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Heavy rainfall simulation on June 13-14 1998
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Heavy rainfall simulation on June 18-22 1998
OBS
NCEP
SWI
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To be done

• Regional climate simulations (RIEMS) with ERS
  derived soil moisture
• RIEMS will be used to perform simulations on the
  Asia Monsoon System to detect the affection from
  human activities (LULC, Aerosol, etc.)
• CEOP high resolution data to be used to validate
  the simulations (Two stations in semi-arid area
  from China-RCE/TEA)

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What is MAIRS
MAIRS is a new international research
organization. Together with ICSUs Earth System
Science Partnership (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and
DIVERSITAS), START and its regional networks in
East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia will
undertake integrated regional studies of global
change in Monsoon Asia (MAIRS). The long-term
objectives of the integrated regional studies
that will ultimately combine field experiments,
process studies, and modeling. http//www.start.o
rg/Program/MAIRS.html MAIRS http//www.mairs-essp
.org/ Collaborations and Suggestions Welcome ??!