A REANALYSIS OF ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE DATABASE WITH EMPHASIS ON CUBAN AND MEXICAN LANDFALL

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A REANALYSIS OF ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE
DATABASE (WITH EMPHASIS ON CUBAN AND MEXICAN
LANDFALLING HURRICANES) AND AN UPDATE OF THE
ESTIMATION OF EXTREME WINDS, WAVES AND RAINFALL.

• Christopher Landsea, Ricardo Prieto, Jorge
  Sánchez-Sesma, Omar Lizano,
• Ramón Pérez.

• XI Congreso Latinoamericano e Ibérico de
  Meteorología
• XIV Congreso Mexicano de Meteorología
• Cancún, México
• February 28th, 2005

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Acknowledgements

• This work has been supported by IAI grant number
  03SGP211-224 and by NOAA-NASA grant GC02-093.
• Special thanks are given to the Mexican Weather
  Service (SMN), Miguel Angel Altamirano, Janet
  Miranda, Roberto Ramírez y Angel Alfonso Rojas.

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The HURDAT database
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NOAA Dork Logo
Track and Intensity Forecast Development and Ver
ification
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Climate Variability and Change Studies
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Building Codes and Insurance Rates
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HURDAT - Developed in the late 1960s in support
of the Apollo space program
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Hurricane Bret (1999)
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Intensity Estimates and Best Track Values
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Center Fix and Best Track
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Smoothed Representation in Best Track
Jarvinen et al. (1984)
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Observational Platforms for Atlantic Hurricanes
Neumann et al. (1999)

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Incorrect intensity and location at landfall
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2000 Hurricane Season
Open Atlantic Ocean Differences
1911 Hurricane Season
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Too Rapid During Last 6 Hours
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Pressure-Wind Relationship
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Atlantic Major Hurricanes
Bias-removed
Landsea (1993)
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GPS Dropsondes
Measures the wind around and in
hurricanes from the aircraft to the oceans
surface
Mean Wind Profile
Wind in Hurricane Georges
Franklin and Black (1999)
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Work of Jose Partagas Historical
Reconstruction from 1851-1910
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HURDAT limitations

• Random and systematic errors in the database that
  need correction.
• Analysis techniques have changed over the years
  at the National Hurricane Center.
• Lack of exact location, time and intensity
  information at landfall.

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Additional sources of information can greatly
increase our knowledge about past events.
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Information resources at the Mexican Weather
Service
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Information resources at the Institute of
Meteorology, Havana, Cuba
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Weather observatories at the Gulf of
México. Years 1921 - 1950
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• Additional databases used to produce
  precipitation maps for México
• 322 stations from DAT322
• SICLIM
• ERICII

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Precipitacion before the landfalling of hurricane
No. 8 of 1936.
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Wind reconstruction using a simple model
(Sánchez-Sesma et al., 1988).
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Ocean wave field representation The SWAN
(Simulating Waves Nearshore) model was used to
reconstruct ocean wave fields for historical
hurricanes.
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Ocean wave reconstruction for hurricane number 8
of 1936.
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Revised tracks for storm 6 in 1911 that impacted
Cuba and for storm 3 in 1921 that impacted
Mexico. Lighter tracks indicate the original
HURDAT data for these systems.
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Grid used to simulate ocean wave field for the
historic hurricane number 7 of 1924
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Model input batimetry
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Hurricane ocean wave simulation

• The following upper figures show the spatial
  ocean wave height distribution every 6 hours
• left old track hurricane parameters
• right new track hurricane parameters
• Lower figures temporal variation of wave height
  at selected location
• Beginning October 17, 0600 hrs
• Ending October 20, 0600 hrs

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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Wave grid used to simulate the historic
hurricane of 1932
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Hurricane wave simulation
The next upper figures show the spatial wave
height distribution every 6 hours left old
track hurricane parameters right new track
hurricane parameters Lower figures temporal
variation of wave height at selected locations
Begin on november 06, 0600 hrs Ending on
november 10, 0000 hrs
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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Old track New track
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PROJECT WEB PAGE http//clima.imta.mx/Projects.ht
m
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PROJECT WEB PAGE http//clima.imta.mx/Re-analysis
.htm
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PROJECT WEB PAGE http//clima.imta.mx/Congreso/RE
-ANALYSYS_OF_ATLANTIC.pdf
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PROJECT WEB PAGE http//clima.imta.mx/Hoja_excel/
Listado_de_huracanes.htm
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THE ENDFIN