Title: Confidence Building Measures and Confidence and Security Building Measures
1 Confidence Building Measures and Confidence and Security Building Measures
Major General Muniruzzaman (Retd)
Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS)
1 www.bipss.org.bd 2 Confidence Building Measures(CBM) And Confidence Security Building Measures (CSBM) 3 INTRODUCTION 4 (No Transcript) 5 STATES SECURITY 6 The concept of Confidence and Building Measures in short CBM has become very significant in the post Cold War era End of the Cold War. Moscow June 1 1988 7 AIM THE AIM OF THE PRESENTATION IS TO GIVE YOU A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF CBM/CSBM WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON SOUTH ASIA 8
Meaning of CBM/CSBM
Objectives of CBM/CSBM
Evaluation of CBM/CSBM
Tools of CBM/CSBM
Types of CBM/CSBM
Brief Review of S Asian Security Environment
Existing CBM/CSBM Situation in S Asia
A Road Map for New Initiative
SEQUENCE 9 MEANING OF CBM/CSBM CBM Arrangements designed to enhance.... assurance of mind and belief in the trust-worthiness of states...confidence is the product of much broader patterns of relations than those which relate to military. 10 CONCEPT BY SOME CBM SCOLARS Formal or informal measures intended to clarify a potential adversarys military intention to reduce uncertainties about hostile intent and/ or to constrain opportunities for surprise attack 11 CBM/CSBMs are measures designed to eliminate subjective factors and evaluations which are often due to prejudice and faulty understanding 12 CSBM Formal and informal measures whether unilateral bilateral or multilateral that address prevent or resolve uncertainties among states including both military and political elements 13 CSBM Agreements Between Two or more governments 14 CBM Secretary of State Henry Kissinger General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev President Ford and Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko during Helsinki Summit Aug 2 1975 Madrid CSCE Follow-up Meeting President Ford signing the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) Helsinki Finland. August 1 1975 CSBM 15 GRADUAL REDUCTION IN TENSION (GRIT) Charles Osgood A Prominent US Journalist GRIT refers to those strategies whereby mutual tension and fear can be interrupted and the de-escalation process begun through conciliatory moves 16 Peace 17 Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin Jimmy Carter and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat signed historic Camp David Peace Accord at Camp David in September 1978. 18 Trust Building Measures The concept of trust-building measures (TBMs) rather than confidence-building measures is used to convey the idea of a less formal approach built upon a base of personal political contacts and relationships. Trust-building measures or trust and reassurance measures can be broadly divided between those measures that involve some form of information exchange and those that require specific measures of constraint. 19 OBJECTIVES OF CSBM/CBM CSBM aim to lessen tensions by increasing transparency of capabilities and intentions lessening anxieties or suspicions and improving predictability for the parties involved clarifying intentions about military force and political activities. CBM/CSBM aim to alter inaccurate usually negative perceptions of motives toward each other and thus avoid misjudgments concerning military actions and policies that might otherwise provoke violent conflict. CBM/CSBMs are most effective at the early stage of a conflict or to prevent recurrence in the aftermath of a conflict. CBM/CSBMs are least likely between countries or parties who are actively engaged in violent conflict. 20 OBJECTIVES OF CSBM/CBM CBM/CSBM may be especially useful in mitigating or preventing violent ethnic conflicts within states such as over minority rights conflict between states arising from refugee problems border disputes disputes over boundaries of economic zones problems with transit by citizens of one country through another conflicts over minority rights or suspected or actual clandestine support of political opposition. CBM/CSBM can also be used within a single country for example when a series of CBM/CSBM cumulatively encourages rivals to sustain and abide by peace agreements. CBM/CSBM can be links between state and non-state actors e.g. ethnic minorities to help overcome their mistrust of state power. CBM/CSBM primarily address operational prevention they are unlikely to alter the existing balance of power between countries or to resolve issues or conflicts between them although they can help to enhance a cooperative atmosphere in which such disputes might be resolved. . 21 PREREQUISITES OF CSBM The most important condition for building confidence is recognition of the importance of a relationship commitment to its sustenance and a mutual willingness to invest in it. For intra-state CBM/CSBM both state and non-state actors need enlightened effective leadership party leadership must be able to maintain control of their followers .
While not necessary conditions CBM/CSBM have been shown to have greater chances of success if countries or parties can readily identify common interests and have the following factors in common
Cultural and religious heritage
Similar form of social and political organization
Strong states or other strong administrative structure
Civil control of the military
Effective multilateral institutions in other issue areas
Approximately equal military forces.
22 EVALUATION OF THE CSBM REGIME Strengths.
a. CBM/CSBMs are ill-advised if parties flagrantly flout widely-accepted international or regional standards.
b. CBM/CSBMs depend on the voluntary compliance of signatories.
c. CBM/CSBM cannot be seen as a framework for enhancing stability throughout a region instead they are marginally helpful in highly specific situations and circumstances.
d. Military CBM/CSBMs are most likely to succeed and be sustained when augmented with political and other CBM/CSBM.
e. CBM/CSBM are more difficult to achieve if major powers outside the region are in competition with each other for influence in the region and try to exert pressures on regional governments thus increasing divisions among them.
23 Lessons Learned In contrast support from countries outside the region to set up CBM/CSBM can help increase the political will of regional countries to attain a successful agreement. CSBM agreements require careful selection of realistic areas of agreement and detailed specification of their enforcement to provide incentives for compliance. CBM/CSBM need to be even-handed so that one side does not gain undue advantage over another. The introduction of CBM/CSBM should be linked with other conflict management processes such as negotiations and peacekeeping. 24 CBM/CSBM TOOLS Communication. Hotlines. Regional Communication. Regular Scheduled Consultations. Constraint. Thin-out Zones. Pre-notification Requirements . 25 CBM/CSBM TOOLS Transparency. Pre-notification Requirements. Data Exchanges . Voluntary Observations . Verification Measures . Aerial Inspections . Ground-based Electronic Censoring Systems . On-site Inspections . 26 TYPES OF CBM/CSBM
Military and Diplomatic CBM/CSBM
Systematic exchange of military missions.
Demobilization disarmament and force restructuring.
Formation of regional or sub-regional risk reduction centers.
Arrangements for the free flow of information including monitoring regional arms agreements.
Information exchange communications and notification requirements such as pre- notification of upcoming military activities like war games and training exercises or troop movements carried out close to borders.
Declarations and codes of conduct such as common targets for the levels of armaments or within a state codes of conduct for domestic behavior of security forces.
Consultative mechanisms security commissions and other joint activities such as direct telephone lines between military commanders mutual privileges for joint observation of military maneuvers or inspection of military installations and meetings to review cross-border problems such as smuggling poaching customs and cattle rustling.
Exchange of relevant information accompanied by intrusive verification procedures including observation and on-site inspection.
27 Political CBM/CSBM Within a country political measures such as power-sharing proportional recruitment and allocation electoral reform and decentralization of power to various localities and regions can also act as political confidence-building measures. Political institutions that encourage bargaining and political accommodation produce an ongoing set of political exchange relationships and reciprocities that result in political learning among rival parties. In the context of intra state conflicts cultural CBMs aim to demonstrate the followings Demonstrating respect for cultural leaders and local practices by the state. Showing respect for traditional authorities and allowing them at least a symbolic role in local affairs. Either avoiding declaring an official language or declaring several. Exercising sensitivity on such issues as removing monuments meaningful to certain ethnic/regional groups. 28 Economic CBM/CSBM Economic cooperation can bind nations together and remove barriers of mistrust. In this world of global competitiveness economic factors play a major role in determining relations amongst states. It also forges closeness in their mutual areas of cooperation. Economic interdependencies also fosters close and fruitful relationships. Nations who are in such relationship do not risk their economic wellbeing and survival by entering into any confrontation. Nuclear CBM/CSBM The threat of nuclear power poses the highest level of threat between and among states. Therefore the need and implication for nuclear CBM/CSBM is extremely high and complex. It calls for a high degree for a technical and political understanding of the parties specially in regards to testing accidental launch and strike capabilities. 29 Other CBM/CSBM
A number of other forms of CBMs can also be effective in different circumstances. Sports CBMs have been quite powerful in relations between Pakistan and India.
The famous Ping Pong diplomacy brought about a fundamental opening in the Sino-US relationship and ended years of deep animosity. Similar is the potent power of religious CBMs shared religious faith and values can build trust between states.
The existence of secret sites in other states also brings about greater respect and understanding about that state. CBMs can also be built by tourism and greater people to people contact exchange of students artists etc.
Fear is mostly a psychological and artificial state and can best be removed by more human contact in any field or form.
30 A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE SOUTH ASIAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 31 EXISTING CBM/CSBM SITUATION IN SOUTH ASIA Military Hotlines Steps Taken Data Exchanges
Declarations on Non-Use of Force Bilateral Resolution of Differences Steps Taken Implementation 32 EXISTING CBM/CSBM SITUATION IN SOUTH ASIA Military Exercises Steps Taken Implementation
Non-intrusion of Air Space Steps Taken Implementation 33 EXISTING CBM/CSBM SITUATION IN SOUTH ASIA Non-Attack of Nuclear Facilities Steps Taken Implementation Bilateral Accord on Chemical Weapons Steps Taken Implementation Non-Harassment of Diplomatic Personnel Steps Taken Implementation 34 CBM/CSBM WITH SMALL STATES
Summary 35 A ROAD MAP FOR NEW INITIATIVE 36
First it would be unwise to conclude that military CBMs should be preferred to non-military CBMs or vice versa both serve the laudable purpose of improving relations between antagonistic states. Military CBMs are designed to avoid or prevent conflict. Non-military CBMs can soften the edges of suspicion and generate an atmosphere conducive to peace and stability by enlarging the areas of cooperation pertaining to the newer sources of insecurity like migration transnational crime etc. A realistic prognosis of their threats to national security would inform which CBMs should preferentially be sought in South Asia.
Second a pledge by the regional states that they shall prevent the organization assistance or encouragement of any acts detrimental to the maintenance of peaceful and harmonious relations is of supreme importance. It is no secret that subversion and covert intervention in the internal affairs of their neighbors is national policy in South Asia. Numerous instances can be provided hence it is recommended that SAARC leaders issue a joint statement that they will discourage such activity in future.
Third past experience reveals that CBMs are best sought in an incremental fashion since An evolutionary step-by-step approach seems to work best at least until core security issues are tackled. A building block approach commends itself hence the military CBMs established between India and Pakistan could be enlarged before more radical measures are sought. Thus-.
(1) The agreement not to attack each others nuclear facilities and installations could be extended to identified population and economic targets.
(2) The agreement on providing advance notice of military exercises could be broadened to associating military observers with major field exercises and establishing crisis management centers.
(3) The agreement on preventing air space violations could be enlarged into an open skies arrangement to allow joint aerial reconnaissance of the line of control which has been activated after the Kargil-Drass conflict.
38 Fourth greater attention needs being given to non-military CBMs that can in a low-key manner improve relations between India and its smaller neighbors but also between India and Pakistan. Article lll of the Simla Agreement provides a framework for such measures. It proposes (1) Steps shall be taken to resume communications postal telegraphic sea land including border posts and air links including over- flights. (2) Appropriate steps shall be taken to promote travel facilities for the nationals of the other country. (3) Trade and cooperation in economic and other agreed fields will be resumed as far as possible. (4) Exchange in the fields of science and culture will be promoted. Fifth the need for India and Pakistan to negotiate nuclear weapons related CBMs is both immediate and vital. They had pledged under the Lahore Declaration to provide each other with advance notification in respect of ballistic missile flight tests notify any accidental unauthorized or unexplained incident maintain a unilateral moratorium on conducting further nuclear test explosions conclude an agreement on prevention of incidents at sea review the implementation of existing Confidence Building Measures review existing communication links.....with a view to upgrading and improving these link and engage in bilateral consultations on security disarmament and non-proliferation issues. 39 Sixth the Graduated Reduction in Tensions (GRT) strategy offers the best hope of successful incremental implementation of non-military CBMs between India and Pakistan since taking unilateral conciliatory steps could be politically difficult. The GRIT strategy would encompass initiating a positive action in order to elicit an appropriate reciprocating move from the adversary. Seventhly a larger engagement between the South Asian countries through regional and sub-regional cooperation should be sought through commerce and joint economic development agreements. This process is important which suggests vigorous exploration of the areas of cooperation identified by SAARC promoting SAFTA and exploring infra structural schemes like the establishment of oil pipelines power projects communications and exploitation of water resources. 40 Unilateral Measures. Neither side nor states need to wait for encouragement or clearance from the international community to make a positive gesture. Unilateral measures can be effective catalysts for a confidence building process. The following may be considered (1) Starting small and building up (2) The value of shuttle diplomacy (3) Desisting from adverse propaganda and promoting genuine debates (4) Adopting a capacity-building approach and building political will by encouraging stakeholders in confidence-building processes (5) Building up expertise on CBMs among decision-makers (6) Consider a policy of no-first-use on both sides (7) Encourage doctrinal transparency on the thinking and modes of operation of national security forces (8) Adopt a policy of increased transparency on conventional capabilities and orders of battle (9) Consider the impact of powerful symbolic gestures (e.g. Sadats visit to Israel). 41 Multilateral Measures (1) Role of outside powers in the confidence building process. (2) SAARC to have significant potential for building confidence across the region although its possible role in creating a nuclear-weapons-free zone had been overtaken by events. (3) Some inspiration could be drawn from ASEANs constructively low-key approach to contentious issues although it is recognized that tensions within ASEAN were never as great as in South Asia. (4) Nuclear CBMs including de-alerting are to be discussed. International observers may play a neutral role high tension areas. 42 Institutional Framework South Asian countries need to build a process to facilitate the growth of trust. Taking inspiration from South Africas channel process each Prime Minister could nominate a senior and respected person with special responsibility for CBM. More generally efforts should be made to clarify which institutions are to handle the settlement of disputes Enhanced institutionalisation of the TCBM/CSBM process would help to ensure that confidence-building facilities do function in times of crisis (unlike the hotline during the Brasstacks crisis). A permanent institutionalised mechanism to oversee CBMs and their implementation should be mandated to report to the public thus helping to broaden and deepen the impact of confidence building. 43 Context and Timing
Some States are ready to enter a confidence-building process whereas others are not. For those that are not yet ready the lessons from the ASEAN process may be useful. It was also argued that it is important for South Asia to develop a regional approach to empowering civil society and to hold governments accountable so that the process of talking about CBMs becomes a CBM/CSBM in itself.
Confidence building measures cost money. Donors could be encouraged to pay to enhance security in the region. However South Asian countries will also have to meet the donors halfway and be aware of good governance issues (human rights appropriate military spending opportunities to strengthen institutions of civil society). To address the fact that there prevails much confusion between policies and postures every effort should be made to increase communications and clarity on matters related to CBMs.
44 CONCLUSION 45 OPEN FORUM 46 THANK YOU www.bipss.org.bd
PowerShow.com is a leading presentation/slideshow sharing website. Whether your application is business, how-to, education, medicine, school, church, sales, marketing, online training or just for fun, PowerShow.com is a great resource. And, best of all, most of its cool features are free and easy to use.
You can use PowerShow.com to find and download example online PowerPoint ppt presentations on just about any topic you can imagine so you can learn how to improve your own slides and presentations for free. Or use it to find and download high-quality how-to PowerPoint ppt presentations with illustrated or animated slides that will teach you how to do something new, also for free. Or use it to upload your own PowerPoint slides so you can share them with your teachers, class, students, bosses, employees, customers, potential investors or the world. Or use it to create really cool photo slideshows - with 2D and 3D transitions, animation, and your choice of music - that you can share with your Facebook friends or Google+ circles. That's all free as well!
For a small fee you can get the industry's best online privacy or publicly promote your presentations and slide shows with top rankings. But aside from that it's free. We'll even convert your presentations and slide shows into the universal Flash format with all their original multimedia glory, including animation, 2D and 3D transition effects, embedded music or other audio, or even video embedded in slides. All for free. Most of the presentations and slideshows on PowerShow.com are free to view, many are even free to download. (You can choose whether to allow people to download your original PowerPoint presentations and photo slideshows for a fee or free or not at all.) Check out PowerShow.com today - for FREE. There is truly something for everyone!