Womens Voices' Women Vote' Initial Results from Focus Groups and Data Review

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Womens Voices. Women Vote.Initial Results
from Focus Groups and Data Review

• December 20, 2005

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Goals and Objectives

• To increase registration and turnout of unmarried
  women.
• Highlight marriage gap as a defining dynamic in
  21st century politics.
• Encourage and sustain long term change.

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A Powerful Force For Change

• Unmarried women have the potential to be among
  the most important agents of change, dramatically
  changing Americas course if they register and
  vote in higher numbers as well as participate in
  public policy debates.
• If unmarried women voted at the same rate as
  married women, there would have been nearly six
  million more voters in 2004. They are the largest
  group of people not participating in our
  democracy.

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Potential For Growth

• Unmarried women have the largest potential for
  growth in terms of both registration and turnout.
• 46 of all voting age women
• 55 of all unregistered women
• 15 million unmarried, unregistered women (2004)
• 20 million unmarried not voting (2004)

Based on 2004 Current Population Survey Data
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The Success Story Largest Turnout Growth

• 2004 showed us that we have a big opportunity to
  influence the shape of politics and change the
  nature of the electorate.
• Many unmarried women voted for the first time in
  2004.
• Is there a larger context and application
  (unmarried women v. unmarried men) to the use of
  the WVWV model for registration and turnout?

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Unmarried Women Increased Their Share of the
Electorate in 2004
CPS
Exit Polls
Net -2
Net -1
Net 1
Net 3
National Election Pools exit poll, conducted by
Edison/Mitofsky, November 2004 and Current
Population Survey, 2004 November Supplement
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Many New Voters in 2004 Were Unmarried Women
National Election Pools exit poll, conducted by
Edison/Mitofsky, November 2004
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The Future WomensOpportunity Groups
Current Population Survey, 2004 November
Supplement
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Drop Off Unmarried Women One Quarter of
Unmarried Women Who Voted in 2004 Did Not Vote in
2002
Democracy Corps/CAF/WVWV, November 2004
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The Future Potential with Minority Men
Current Population Survey, 2004 November
Supplement
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Economic Marginality and Social Networks
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Economic Marginality Income Disparities
Men
Women
Current Population Survey, November 2004
Supplement
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Economic Marginality Home Ownership Low
Scarborough USA 2005 Release 1
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Economic Marginality Education
Women
Men
Current Population Survey, November 2004
Supplement
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Social Networks Church Attendance
Men
Women
Every Week / Almost Every Week
Several Times a Year
Several Times a Year
Hardly Ever/Never
Hardly Ever/Never
Every Week / Almost Every Week
American National Election Studies, 2004
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Social Networks Unmarrieds are Mobile
Women
Men
Married
Unmarried
Current Population Survey, November 2004
Supplement
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Age Unmarrieds are Younger than Marrieds
Women
Men
Current Population Survey, 2004 November
Supplement
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Age Slightly More Younger Unmarried Men
Women
Men
Current Population Survey, 2004 November
Supplement
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Economic Populism and Attitudes Towards Iraq
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Women Biggest Issue Concerns
Religion and Ethics Newsweekly, July-August 2005
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Men Biggest Issue Concerns
Religion and Ethics Newsweekly, July-August 2005
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Women Attitudes Toward War in Iraq
71
Net 16
Net 47
55
40
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Unmarried Women
Married Women
Democracy Corps Combined Data, April-July, 2005
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Men Attitudes Toward War in Iraq
Net -3
Net 27
61
49
46
35
Unmarried Men
Married Men
Democracy Corps Combined Data, April-July, 2005
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Attitudes Toward Government
American National Election Studies, 2004
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Getting Unmarrieds to Vote
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Why Unmarrieds Do Not Vote, Attitudinal

• Do not like the candidates or parties.
• Do not believe candidates will keep their
  promises.
• Do not think their vote will make a difference.
• Do not care or like politics.

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Why Unmarrieds Do Not Vote, Structural

• Do not have enough information.
• Do not know how to register or how to vote.
• Voting seems complicated or inconvenient.
• Elections are rigged or votes are not counted.

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Why They Would Vote, Attitudinal

• It is a civic duty, a right fought for by
  ancestors or a privilege of citizenship
• If they thought it would make a difference or
  bring about change
• If they were inspired by the candidates or the
  parties

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Why They Would Vote, Structural

• Help with registration and turnout make it easy
• Receiving information early and often from
  neutral sources
• Targeted communication e.g., go to the places
  where they live their lives

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Why They Would Vote, Early Message Development

• Change
• Unmarrieds are change voters they are deeply
  unhappy with the direction of the country
• Power
• Unmarried women in particular feel powerless
  politically, and yet proud of their self-reliance
• The Few versus the Many
• Unmarrieds believe that the nation is run for the
  benefit of big interests not the people they
  have deep economic concerns that are currently
  unmet

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Potential Targets
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Additional Targets

• Unmarried Hispanic women
• Incredible room for growth
• Populist, but older women are socially
  conservative
• Unmarried women drop-off voters
• Easy to reach through voters files
• Very populist
• Unmarried men
• Minority men and potentially younger unmarried
  white men
• For many, lower registration and turnout is a
  function of age

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Finding Unmarried Women
Scarborough USA 2005 Release 1
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Finding Unmarried Men
Scarborough USA 2005 Release 1
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Methodology

• All data was collected and analysis was conducted
  by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research.
• Data taken from the following sources
• U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
  November 2004 Supplement (Total population)
• Democracy Corps
• Democracy Corps/CAF/WVWV Combined Dataset,
  Post-Election 2004 (Voters)
• Combined data AprilJuly 2005 (Likely voters)
• Democracy Corps Hispanic Survey, July 2005
  (Likely voters)
• National Election Pool Exit Polls conducted by
  Edison Mitofsky Media, 2004 (Voters)
• American National Election Studies, 1948-2004
  (Total population)
• Pew Hispanic Survey, July 2004 (Hispanic
  population)
• Scarborough USA 2005 Release 1 (Total population)
• Religion and Ethics Newsweekly, July-August 2005
  (Total population)

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Methodology

• Focus Groups 11/16 12/06/2005
• Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Young white unmarried men (eligible infrequent
  and unregistered voters)
• Unmarried white women (drop-off voters)
• Tucson, Arizona
• Young unmarried Hispanic women (eligible
  infrequent and unregistered voters)
• Older unmarried Hispanic women (eligible
  infrequent and unregistered voters)
• Detroit, Michigan
• African American unmarried men (eligible
  infrequent and unregistered voters)
• African American unmarried women (drop-off
  voters)
• Young white unmarried men (eligible infrequent
  and unregistered voters)
• White unmarried women (drop-off voters)

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Womens Voices. Women Vote. December 20, 2005