Critical Citizens and Political Participation in Latin America


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Critical Citizens and Political Participation in
Latin America

• Ryan Carlin
• University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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Overarching Concern

• What kinds of citizens enrich and sustain
  democracy
  

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Research Questions

• How can we identify democratic citizens
• Does democratic support (or lack thereof)
  influence political participation If so how

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Critical Citizens

• Support for Democracy
• Distrust in Political Institutions
• Political Participation

Norris 1999 Pharr Putnam 2000 Cain Norris
2002 Dalton Scarrow 2003 Dalton 2004
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Outline

• New Measurement Approach
• Analyses
• Cluster Analysis Profiles of Democratic Support
• Model Protest Activism
• Model Electoral Participation
• Theoretical Contributions
• Future Payoffs

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Case Selection Chile

• Like Europe
• Like Latin America
• Quality of Democracy high for Latin America low
  for Europe
  

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Profiles of Democratic Support

• Procedural Democracy Polyarchy Dahl 1971
• Objects of Support
• Democratic Governance
• Political Rights Procedures
• Civil Liberties
• Orientations of Support
• Democratic vs. Authoritarian
• Democratic vs. Contingent

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Data

• AmericasBarometer 2006 (LAPOP)
• Highest quality national sample (n 1517)
• Rich Multiple Measures

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Operationalization
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Democratic vs. Authoritarian

• Democratic Governance
• A/D Democracy may have problems but it is still
  the best form of government
  
• Political Rights Procedures a.91
• A/D Do you think people who speak poorly of the
  government should be able to (1) vote (2) run
  for office (3) express political views in
  peaceful protests (4) voice political views on
  TV
• Civil Liberties a.84
• A/D Would you support a law
• (1) banning all public protests
• (2) prohibiting dissenters from associating
• (3) censoring (a) TV programs (b) library
  books (c) media criticizing the government

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Democratic vs. Contingent

• Democratic Governance a.81
• A/D Would a military coup be justified under
  high levels of Unemployment social protests
  crime inflation corruption
  
• Political Rights Procedures a.86
• Would support a government that
• ½ unemployment but suspends elections
• ½ crime but suspends elections
• ½ unemployment but disregards congress
  judiciary
  
• ½ crime but disregards congress judiciary
• Civil Liberties
• (a) Our president must have the necessary power
  to act in the national interest
  
• (b) Our presidents power must be limited so as
  not to put our liberties at risk

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Profiles of Democratic Support

• Cluster Analysis classify data on multiple
  dimensions
  
• Agglomerative Hierarchical CA Wards Method
• Max similarity within max dissimilarity between
  clusters
  
• ANOVA minimizes SS difference any 2 (potential)
  clusters
  
• 5-cluster solution
• Validity checks

Squared Euclidean distance(xy)
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Results

• Cluster means (s.d.s) across
• 3 objects
• Democratic vs. Authoritarian Orientations
• Democratic vs. Contingent Orientations
• Coding
• Higher scores more democratic
• Standardized mean 0
• Contingent civil liberties 0/1

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Liberals
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Hyper-Presidentials
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Delegatives
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Instrumentals
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Authoritarians
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Research Questions

• How do we identify democratic citizens
• How does democratic support (or lack thereof)
  influence political participation

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Political Participation

• Citizen voice Hirschman 1970
• Protest Activism
• Social Accountability Smulovitz Peruzotti 2000
  watch-dog role
  
• Electoral Participation
• Vertical Accountability ODonnell 1999
• throw the rascals out

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Institutional Trust

• Independent Variable
• To what extent do you have confianza in
  political parties
  
• confianza trust confidence
• Coded 1 Nada to 7 Mucha

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Model Protest Activism

• Base Model Norris 1999
• Ordered Logit
• DV Protest Activism
• (3) Frequent participation in last year
• (2) Infrequent participation in last year
• (1) Participation ever
• (0) Participation never
• IVs Party Trust Support Profile Dummies
  Interactions (Party TrustSupport Profile
  Dummies)
  
• Controls Education income woman married age
  children interpersonal trust political
  interest Left-Right civic participation

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Protest Activism
Liberals
Hyper-Presidentials
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Protest Activism
Liberals
Instrumentals
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Regression Results Protest
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Model Electoral Participation

• Base Model Carlin 2006
• Multinomial Logit
• DV Electoral Participation
• (base) Voted for a Candidate
• (2) Not Registered to VoteReported
• (3) Abstained
• (4) Cast Blank/Null Ballot
• IVs Party Trust Support Profile Dummies
  Interactions (Party TrustSupport Profile
  Dummies)
  
• Controls Education income woman married age
  cohorts children interpersonal trust political
  interest Left-Right civic participation

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Electoral Participation
Liberals
Delegatives
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Regression Results Voting
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Theoretical Contributions

• Substantive Democratic Support Conditional
  effect on Political Participation
  
• Liberal Support Party Distrust Protest
• Hyper-Presidential Instrumental Support
• Party Trust Protest
• Liberal Support Party Trust Vote
• Delegative Support Party Distrust Vote
• Methodological Profiles of Democratic Support
• Hypothesis Generating Case Study

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Future Payoff

• Micro-Macro linkages Democratic Quality
• Micro-Macro linkages Democratic Stability

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Thank you
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Implications

• Implications for Quality of Democracy
• Electoral reform Moral Cleavage Hagopian 2004
• Issues Preferences Development Welfare state
• Bulwark against candidate-centered politics

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Socialization
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Citizens Democracy

• Psychopathology and Politics Lasswell 1930
• Political Man Lipset 1961
• The American Voter Campbell et al. 1961 1980
• The Civic Culture Almond Verba 1963
• The Crisis of Democracy Crozier Huntington
  Watanuki 1975
  
• Political Action Study Barnes Kaase 1979
• Making Democracy Work Putnam 1993
• Beliefs in Government Kaase Newton 1995
• Modernization Postmodernization Inglehart 1997

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Case Selection Chile

• Pinochets 1980 Constitution
• modern and protected democracy
• demobilize de-polarize neoliberalism
• Authoritarian enclaves
• Binomial Majoritarian Electoral System (M2)
• 1 seat for each of top-2 lists
• Representation cleavage
• Voluntary registration Compulsory voting

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Measurement

• Single survey items the d-word
• Vacuous conceptions of democracy
• Social desirability
• Contested conceptions of democracy
• Conflicting values norms
• Uni-dimensional scales of survey items
• Compound problems
• Multidimensional concept
• Drop d-word focus on democratic values

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Measurement

• Advantages of Definition
• Combats contested vacuous conceptions
• Embraces conflicting values norms
• Matches indicators at regime level (FH)
• Distinguishes outright conditional support
• Disadvantages of Definition
• Democracy essentially contested Gallie 1959
• More relevant conceptualization
• Indifference

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Insignificant Means
Measures Tukey Fishers LSD
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Liberal Support

• Clearly prefer democratic governance
• Most unwavering support for political rights
• Champion checking presidential power to preserve
  civil liberties
  
• 16.5 of respondents smallest cluster

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Hyper-Presidential Support

• Prefer democratic governance (highest)
• Score democratically on political rights
• But would accept President acting in national
  interest at expense of civil liberties
  
• 17.3 of respondents

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Delegative Support

• Little respect for democratic governance
  political rights civil liberties
  
• Delegate power to president to act in national
  interest at expense of individual liberties
  
• Neither pro- nor anti-military intervention
• 27.4 of respondents largest category

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Instrumental Support

• Democracy not necessarily the best form of
  government
  
• Support status quo political rights/procedures
  civil liberties
  
• Military intervention justifiable (closer to min.
  than mean)
  
• Waver on granting President more power
• 17.1 of respondents

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Instrumental Support
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Authoritarian Support

• Weak rejection of democracy
• Support limiting political rights/procedures
  civil liberties
  
• Hold no contingencies
• Authoritarian logic different under democracy
• Maintain voting rights
• Restrict presidential power
• 21.8 of respondents

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Authoritarian Support
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Regression Results Protest

• Operationalization
• Political PartiesReported
• Congress
• Political Institutions index a.86
• Political Parties Congress National Government
  Municipal Government Supreme Court Civil
  Service
  
• Distrust in parties drives protest among
  liberals
  
• No consistent relationship among other profiles
• No consistent relationship among common measures
  of democratic support

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Parallel Regression Assumption

• Proportional odds assumption
• A change in IV has same effect on the odds of
  answering each of the ordered categories (m) of
  the DV (Frequent Infrequent Ever Never)
  
• Wald test Brant 1990
• Overall test that ßms are equal
• Individual test that ßms are equal for IVs

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Brant Test
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Regression Results Voting

• Distrust in parties drives democrats away from
  electoral politics
  
• No consistent relationship among other profiles
• No consistent relationship among common measures
  of democratic support

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Trust Distrust in Parties

• Domain of trust Representation
• Trust Citizen As belief that political parties
  B1n will represent As interests X1n
  
• Distrust Citizen As belief that political
  parties B1n will not represent As interests
  X1n
  
• GSS-style measure captures lack of trust

Cleary Stokes 2006
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Party Trust Participation Delegative (N/S)
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Party Trust Protest Activism Authoritarian
(z1.67)
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Regression Results Protest
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Regression Results Voting
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Linzian Support for Democracy

• With which of the following phrases do you most
  agree
  
• (a) Democracy is always the best form of
  government
  
• (b) In certain circumstances an Authoritarian
  government may be preferable to a democratic one
  
• (c) It doesnt make any difference to me
• 61 agree with (a)

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What is the most effective way you can influence
how things change Participate in protest
movements and demand change directly
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
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What is the most effective way you can influence
how things change Vote for a party that defends
my position Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
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Democracy creates conditions so people like me
can prosper by way of my own efforts
AgreeStrong Agree Latinobarómetro 2006 n
20234
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How democratic is this country Latinobarómetro
2006 n 20234
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How would you evaluate the job that the national
congress is doing Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
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How would you evaluate the job that the
political parties are doing Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
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How would you evaluate the job that the
judiciary is doing Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
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Inter-Correlation Reliability
p .001 p .01
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Robustness ChecksAlternative Linkages
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Robustness ChecksAlternative Linkages
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Polyarchy

• Control over government policy decisions is
  constitutionally vested in elected officials
  
• Elected officials chosen in frequent fair
  election in which coercion is uncommon
  
• All adults have rights to vote run for office
• Right to expression on political matters without
  fear of severe punishment
  
• Right to seek alternative information sources
  must exist and be protected by law
  
• Right to form relatively independent associations
  or organizations including independent political
  parties and interest groups

Dahl 1971
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Measurement

• Cluster Analysis Exploratory Factor Analysis
• Similarities
• Exploratory
• Insight into data structure
• Cannot confirm a priori defined data structure
• Differences
• FA assume continuous underlying dimensions
• CA assume categorical underlying dimensions
• FAs linearity obscures meaningful combinations
• Alternative linkages for robustness face valid

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Quality of Democracy

• We consider a quality democracy to be one that
  provides its citizens a high degree of freedom
  political equality and popular control over
  public policies and policy makers through the
  legitimate and lawful functioning of stable
  institutions.
• Diamond Morlino 2005 xi

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Distrusting Hyper-Presidential Quote

• Las cosas se van a poner graves en Chile a la
  larga si la Concertación o el presidente de turno
  no da un golpe fuerte presidencial y termina con
  estas amarras perversas. La derecha política que
  representa un 40 por ciento con suerte en el
  Parlamento está sobre representada. Esa es la
  tranca por la que no se pueden hacer los cambios
  que el país quiere requiere y exige. Estamos
  viendo protestas huelgas y cada vez el problema
  social se va a ir agravando en la medida que no
  se le dé solución a esto.

Roberto Thieme 9-10-07 www.terra.cl
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Delegative Quote

• Since the days of the Conquest we Chileans have
  been a subjugated race. And culturally speaking
  frankly you get used to it! We Chileans are a
  people who respond to strictness! (Somos los
  chilenos gente de rigor!) We need order and rules
  to keep us in check. Sometimes it is necessary
  for a few people to suffer so that a country can
  move forward and not live in fear. Thanks to
  Pinochet today I can ride the subway without
  worrying that some extremist revolutionary is
  going to plant a bomb and kill me.

Carlos 50 yrs Las Condes
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Citizen Participation Initiated from above

• 1980 Constitution
• Separates political rights civil liberties from
  social rights
  
• Individualistic no class actions suspicious of
  collective rights action
  
• Aylwin
• National agencies for women indigenous
  environment
  
• Decentralization

Rindefjäll 2005
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Citizen Participation Initiated from above

• Lagos 2001 IADB funding (15 million) Program
  for Strengthening partnerships between civil
  society and the state
  
• Promote citizen participation in public admin
• Stimulate civil society
• Rights-based language from consumers
  beneficiaries to citizens users
  
• Vague Increase quality of democracy i.e.
  accountability deepening rights

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Citizen Participation Initiated from above

• Citizen Council for the Strengthening of Civil
  Society
  
• Elaborate proposals to strengthen civil society
  promote citizen participation
  
• Restricted role of Citizen Council consultation
  not decision-making
  
• Lacked legitimacy b/c could not address all ideas
  and concerns pre-determined spaces
  
• Bordered on encroachment of autonomy

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Citizen Participation Initiated from above

• Citizen Participation Law 2004
• inform discuss and consult leaders and
  representatives from civil society organizations
  from all over the country with regard to the
  legislative initiatives elaborated by the
  government (DOS 2003)
• Capacity building of core groups which in turn
  capacitated other smaller groups
  
• 6000 leaders from 5000 groups
• 5 dimensions legal changes on freedoms of
  association establish fund to strengthen
  public interest organizations legal framework
  for voluntary work changes in wording in legal
  norms

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Protest Activism Full Model w/Interactions
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Protest Activism Liberal Interaction
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Protest Activism Linz Interaction
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Protest Activism Churchill Interaction
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Electoral Participation Full Model w/Interactions
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Electoral Participation Linz Democrat Interaction
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Electoral Participation Churchill Democrat
Interaction
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Implications

• What if Distrusting Liberals
• (a) maintain protest pressure
• (b) enter the electorate
• Electoral reform Moral Cleavage Hagopian 2004
• Issues Preferences
• Development
• Welfare state
• Bulwark against candidate-centered politics

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Cited in Kurtz 2004. Source International Labor
Organization (strikes) Morley Machado
Pettinato (economic liberalization)
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Q-Sort 36 Items
Disagree Agree
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
3 4 5
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Q-Sorts Liberal
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Q-Sorts Delegative
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Q-Sorts Instrumental
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Q-Sorts Authoritarian