Title: Critical Citizens and Political Participation in Latin America
1Critical Citizens and Political Participation in
Latin America
- Ryan Carlin
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
2Overarching Concern
- What kinds of citizens enrich and sustain
democracy
-
3Research Questions
- How can we identify democratic citizens
- Does democratic support (or lack thereof)
influence political participation If so how
4Critical Citizens
- Support for Democracy
- Distrust in Political Institutions
- Political Participation
Norris 1999 Pharr Putnam 2000 Cain Norris
2002 Dalton Scarrow 2003 Dalton 2004
5(No Transcript)
6(No Transcript)
7Outline
- New Measurement Approach
- Analyses
- Cluster Analysis Profiles of Democratic Support
- Model Protest Activism
- Model Electoral Participation
- Theoretical Contributions
- Future Payoffs
8Case Selection Chile
- Like Europe
- Like Latin America
- Quality of Democracy high for Latin America low
for Europe
9Profiles of Democratic Support
- Procedural Democracy Polyarchy Dahl 1971
- Objects of Support
- Democratic Governance
- Political Rights Procedures
- Civil Liberties
- Orientations of Support
- Democratic vs. Authoritarian
- Democratic vs. Contingent
10Data
- AmericasBarometer 2006 (LAPOP)
- Highest quality national sample (n 1517)
- Rich Multiple Measures
11Operationalization
12Democratic vs. Authoritarian
- Democratic Governance
- A/D Democracy may have problems but it is still
the best form of government
- Political Rights Procedures a.91
- A/D Do you think people who speak poorly of the
government should be able to (1) vote (2) run
for office (3) express political views in
peaceful protests (4) voice political views on
TV - Civil Liberties a.84
- A/D Would you support a law
- (1) banning all public protests
- (2) prohibiting dissenters from associating
- (3) censoring (a) TV programs (b) library
books (c) media criticizing the government
13Democratic vs. Contingent
- Democratic Governance a.81
- A/D Would a military coup be justified under
high levels of Unemployment social protests
crime inflation corruption
- Political Rights Procedures a.86
- Would support a government that
- ½ unemployment but suspends elections
- ½ crime but suspends elections
- ½ unemployment but disregards congress
judiciary
- ½ crime but disregards congress judiciary
- Civil Liberties
- (a) Our president must have the necessary power
to act in the national interest
- (b) Our presidents power must be limited so as
not to put our liberties at risk
14Profiles of Democratic Support
- Cluster Analysis classify data on multiple
dimensions
- Agglomerative Hierarchical CA Wards Method
- Max similarity within max dissimilarity between
clusters
- ANOVA minimizes SS difference any 2 (potential)
clusters
- 5-cluster solution
- Validity checks
Squared Euclidean distance(xy)
15(No Transcript)
16Results
- Cluster means (s.d.s) across
- 3 objects
- Democratic vs. Authoritarian Orientations
- Democratic vs. Contingent Orientations
- Coding
- Higher scores more democratic
- Standardized mean 0
- Contingent civil liberties 0/1
17Liberals
18Hyper-Presidentials
19Delegatives
20Instrumentals
21Authoritarians
22Research Questions
- How do we identify democratic citizens
- How does democratic support (or lack thereof)
influence political participation
23Political Participation
- Citizen voice Hirschman 1970
- Protest Activism
- Social Accountability Smulovitz Peruzotti 2000
watch-dog role
- Electoral Participation
- Vertical Accountability ODonnell 1999
- throw the rascals out
24Institutional Trust
- Independent Variable
- To what extent do you have confianza in
political parties
- confianza trust confidence
- Coded 1 Nada to 7 Mucha
25Model Protest Activism
- Base Model Norris 1999
- Ordered Logit
- DV Protest Activism
- (3) Frequent participation in last year
- (2) Infrequent participation in last year
- (1) Participation ever
- (0) Participation never
- IVs Party Trust Support Profile Dummies
Interactions (Party TrustSupport Profile
Dummies)
- Controls Education income woman married age
children interpersonal trust political
interest Left-Right civic participation
26Protest Activism
Liberals
Hyper-Presidentials
27Protest Activism
Liberals
Instrumentals
28Regression Results Protest
29Model Electoral Participation
- Base Model Carlin 2006
- Multinomial Logit
- DV Electoral Participation
- (base) Voted for a Candidate
- (2) Not Registered to VoteReported
- (3) Abstained
- (4) Cast Blank/Null Ballot
- IVs Party Trust Support Profile Dummies
Interactions (Party TrustSupport Profile
Dummies)
- Controls Education income woman married age
cohorts children interpersonal trust political
interest Left-Right civic participation
30(No Transcript)
31Electoral Participation
Liberals
Delegatives
32Regression Results Voting
33Theoretical Contributions
- Substantive Democratic Support Conditional
effect on Political Participation
- Liberal Support Party Distrust Protest
- Hyper-Presidential Instrumental Support
- Party Trust Protest
- Liberal Support Party Trust Vote
- Delegative Support Party Distrust Vote
- Methodological Profiles of Democratic Support
- Hypothesis Generating Case Study
34Future Payoff
- Micro-Macro linkages Democratic Quality
- Micro-Macro linkages Democratic Stability
35Thank you
36Implications
- Implications for Quality of Democracy
- Electoral reform Moral Cleavage Hagopian 2004
- Issues Preferences Development Welfare state
- Bulwark against candidate-centered politics
37(No Transcript)
38Socialization
39(No Transcript)
40(No Transcript)
41(No Transcript)
42(No Transcript)
43Citizens Democracy
- Psychopathology and Politics Lasswell 1930
- Political Man Lipset 1961
- The American Voter Campbell et al. 1961 1980
- The Civic Culture Almond Verba 1963
- The Crisis of Democracy Crozier Huntington
Watanuki 1975
- Political Action Study Barnes Kaase 1979
- Making Democracy Work Putnam 1993
- Beliefs in Government Kaase Newton 1995
- Modernization Postmodernization Inglehart 1997
44Case Selection Chile
- Pinochets 1980 Constitution
- modern and protected democracy
- demobilize de-polarize neoliberalism
- Authoritarian enclaves
- Binomial Majoritarian Electoral System (M2)
- 1 seat for each of top-2 lists
- Representation cleavage
- Voluntary registration Compulsory voting
45(No Transcript)
46(No Transcript)
47Measurement
- Single survey items the d-word
- Vacuous conceptions of democracy
- Social desirability
- Contested conceptions of democracy
- Conflicting values norms
- Uni-dimensional scales of survey items
- Compound problems
- Multidimensional concept
- Drop d-word focus on democratic values
48Measurement
- Advantages of Definition
- Combats contested vacuous conceptions
- Embraces conflicting values norms
- Matches indicators at regime level (FH)
- Distinguishes outright conditional support
- Disadvantages of Definition
- Democracy essentially contested Gallie 1959
- More relevant conceptualization
- Indifference
49(No Transcript)
50Insignificant Means
Measures Tukey Fishers LSD
51Liberal Support
- Clearly prefer democratic governance
- Most unwavering support for political rights
- Champion checking presidential power to preserve
civil liberties
- 16.5 of respondents smallest cluster
52(No Transcript)
53Hyper-Presidential Support
- Prefer democratic governance (highest)
- Score democratically on political rights
- But would accept President acting in national
interest at expense of civil liberties
- 17.3 of respondents
54(No Transcript)
55Delegative Support
- Little respect for democratic governance
political rights civil liberties
- Delegate power to president to act in national
interest at expense of individual liberties
- Neither pro- nor anti-military intervention
- 27.4 of respondents largest category
56Instrumental Support
- Democracy not necessarily the best form of
government
- Support status quo political rights/procedures
civil liberties
- Military intervention justifiable (closer to min.
than mean)
- Waver on granting President more power
- 17.1 of respondents
57Instrumental Support
58Authoritarian Support
- Weak rejection of democracy
- Support limiting political rights/procedures
civil liberties
- Hold no contingencies
- Authoritarian logic different under democracy
- Maintain voting rights
- Restrict presidential power
- 21.8 of respondents
59Authoritarian Support
60(No Transcript)
61Regression Results Protest
- Operationalization
- Political PartiesReported
- Congress
- Political Institutions index a.86
- Political Parties Congress National Government
Municipal Government Supreme Court Civil
Service
- Distrust in parties drives protest among
liberals
- No consistent relationship among other profiles
- No consistent relationship among common measures
of democratic support
62Parallel Regression Assumption
- Proportional odds assumption
- A change in IV has same effect on the odds of
answering each of the ordered categories (m) of
the DV (Frequent Infrequent Ever Never)
- Wald test Brant 1990
- Overall test that ßms are equal
- Individual test that ßms are equal for IVs
63Brant Test
64Regression Results Voting
- Distrust in parties drives democrats away from
electoral politics
- No consistent relationship among other profiles
- No consistent relationship among common measures
of democratic support
65Trust Distrust in Parties
- Domain of trust Representation
- Trust Citizen As belief that political parties
B1n will represent As interests X1n
- Distrust Citizen As belief that political
parties B1n will not represent As interests
X1n
- GSS-style measure captures lack of trust
Cleary Stokes 2006
66Party Trust Participation Delegative (N/S)
67Party Trust Protest Activism Authoritarian
(z1.67)
68Regression Results Protest
69(No Transcript)
70Regression Results Voting
71(No Transcript)
72(No Transcript)
73Linzian Support for Democracy
- With which of the following phrases do you most
agree
- (a) Democracy is always the best form of
government
- (b) In certain circumstances an Authoritarian
government may be preferable to a democratic one
- (c) It doesnt make any difference to me
- 61 agree with (a)
74(No Transcript)
75What is the most effective way you can influence
how things change Participate in protest
movements and demand change directly
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
76What is the most effective way you can influence
how things change Vote for a party that defends
my position Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
77Democracy creates conditions so people like me
can prosper by way of my own efforts
AgreeStrong Agree Latinobarómetro 2006 n
20234
78How democratic is this country Latinobarómetro
2006 n 20234
79How would you evaluate the job that the national
congress is doing Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
80How would you evaluate the job that the
political parties are doing Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
81How would you evaluate the job that the
judiciary is doing Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006 n 20234
82Inter-Correlation Reliability
p .001 p .01
83Robustness ChecksAlternative Linkages
84Robustness ChecksAlternative Linkages
85Polyarchy
- Control over government policy decisions is
constitutionally vested in elected officials
- Elected officials chosen in frequent fair
election in which coercion is uncommon
- All adults have rights to vote run for office
- Right to expression on political matters without
fear of severe punishment
- Right to seek alternative information sources
must exist and be protected by law
- Right to form relatively independent associations
or organizations including independent political
parties and interest groups
Dahl 1971
86Measurement
- Cluster Analysis Exploratory Factor Analysis
- Similarities
- Exploratory
- Insight into data structure
- Cannot confirm a priori defined data structure
- Differences
- FA assume continuous underlying dimensions
- CA assume categorical underlying dimensions
- FAs linearity obscures meaningful combinations
- Alternative linkages for robustness face valid
87Quality of Democracy
- We consider a quality democracy to be one that
provides its citizens a high degree of freedom
political equality and popular control over
public policies and policy makers through the
legitimate and lawful functioning of stable
institutions. - Diamond Morlino 2005 xi
88Distrusting Hyper-Presidential Quote
- Las cosas se van a poner graves en Chile a la
larga si la Concertación o el presidente de turno
no da un golpe fuerte presidencial y termina con
estas amarras perversas. La derecha política que
representa un 40 por ciento con suerte en el
Parlamento está sobre representada. Esa es la
tranca por la que no se pueden hacer los cambios
que el país quiere requiere y exige. Estamos
viendo protestas huelgas y cada vez el problema
social se va a ir agravando en la medida que no
se le dé solución a esto.
Roberto Thieme 9-10-07 www.terra.cl
89Delegative Quote
- Since the days of the Conquest we Chileans have
been a subjugated race. And culturally speaking
frankly you get used to it! We Chileans are a
people who respond to strictness! (Somos los
chilenos gente de rigor!) We need order and rules
to keep us in check. Sometimes it is necessary
for a few people to suffer so that a country can
move forward and not live in fear. Thanks to
Pinochet today I can ride the subway without
worrying that some extremist revolutionary is
going to plant a bomb and kill me.
Carlos 50 yrs Las Condes
90Citizen Participation Initiated from above
- 1980 Constitution
- Separates political rights civil liberties from
social rights
- Individualistic no class actions suspicious of
collective rights action
- Aylwin
- National agencies for women indigenous
environment
- Decentralization
Rindefjäll 2005
91Citizen Participation Initiated from above
- Lagos 2001 IADB funding (15 million) Program
for Strengthening partnerships between civil
society and the state
- Promote citizen participation in public admin
- Stimulate civil society
- Rights-based language from consumers
beneficiaries to citizens users
- Vague Increase quality of democracy i.e.
accountability deepening rights
92Citizen Participation Initiated from above
- Citizen Council for the Strengthening of Civil
Society
- Elaborate proposals to strengthen civil society
promote citizen participation
- Restricted role of Citizen Council consultation
not decision-making
- Lacked legitimacy b/c could not address all ideas
and concerns pre-determined spaces
- Bordered on encroachment of autonomy
93Citizen Participation Initiated from above
- Citizen Participation Law 2004
- inform discuss and consult leaders and
representatives from civil society organizations
from all over the country with regard to the
legislative initiatives elaborated by the
government (DOS 2003) - Capacity building of core groups which in turn
capacitated other smaller groups
- 6000 leaders from 5000 groups
- 5 dimensions legal changes on freedoms of
association establish fund to strengthen
public interest organizations legal framework
for voluntary work changes in wording in legal
norms
94Protest Activism Full Model w/Interactions
95Protest Activism Liberal Interaction
96Protest Activism Linz Interaction
97Protest Activism Churchill Interaction
98Electoral Participation Full Model w/Interactions
99Electoral Participation Linz Democrat Interaction
100Electoral Participation Churchill Democrat
Interaction
101Implications
- What if Distrusting Liberals
- (a) maintain protest pressure
- (b) enter the electorate
- Electoral reform Moral Cleavage Hagopian 2004
- Issues Preferences
- Development
- Welfare state
- Bulwark against candidate-centered politics
102(No Transcript)
103(No Transcript)
104(No Transcript)
105(No Transcript)
106(No Transcript)
107Cited in Kurtz 2004. Source International Labor
Organization (strikes) Morley Machado
Pettinato (economic liberalization)
108(No Transcript)
109(No Transcript)
110(No Transcript)
111(No Transcript)
112Q-Sort 36 Items
Disagree Agree
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
3 4 5
113Q-Sorts Liberal
114Q-Sorts Delegative
115Q-Sorts Instrumental
116Q-Sorts Authoritarian