Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate

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Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate
Variability on Ecosystem Services of Tidal
Marshes, South Atlantic Coast
Chris Craft (IU) Mandy Joye (UGA) Steve
Pennings (UH), Dick Park, Jon Clough (Eco
Modeling) Jeff Ehman (Image Matters)
U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR)
program
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Altamaha River
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Land
Sea
Tidal fresh-water marsh
Salt marsh
Regulation Functions Shoreline Protection CO2
CH4 Flux Carbon sequestration NP
retention Sediment Deposition Denitrification
Habitat Functions Macrophyte
Diversity Marsh Nekton Productivity
Functions Macrophyte Productivity Marsh Nekton

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Research Questions

• How will rising sea level affect abundance
• and distribution of tidal wetlands AND
• their delivery of ecosystem services?
• How will climate variability (drought,
• flood) affect delivery of ecosystem
• services?

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• Rising sea level
• Increased inundation,
• salinity sulfate

Alteration of . Wetland Habitat
Ecosystem Services ? Reduction of salt and
brackish ? Reduced Regulation Functions
marsh habitat (shoreline protection, CH4
CO2 flux, carbon sequestration,
N, P retention, sediment deposition
denitrification)
? Complete loss of tidal fresh- ? Reduce Habitat
Functions water marsh (plant
diversity) ? Increased submerged land
? Reduced Production Functions (plant
productivity, marsh nekton,

commercial shrimp yield)
Submerged Land
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Satilla River
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Ogeechee River
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I. Sea Level Rise

• Quantify ecosystem services of salt, brackish
• and tidal fresh marshes.
• Overlay ecosystem services on GIS map of
• wetlands.
• Simulate different scenarios of sea level rise
  to
• predict change in wetland area, type and
• ecosystem services.
• Evaluate the effects of dikes versus no dikes.
• Scale to South Carolina-Georgia coasts.

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Figure 4. Study region, including the southeast
(GA, SC) coast, field sampling areas
(Altamaha, Satilla, Ogeechee Rivers) and GIS
map of tidal wetlands of the
Altamaha River estuary (GA).
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SLAMM Version 5 (alpha) (Sea Level
Affects Marshes Model)
SLAMM uses elevation, NWI, tide range and
historic sea level rise data to parameterize
the model. The simulation is run using A1B
SRES (mean) scenario.
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2050
1986
2100
2075
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Initial Condition
Year 2100
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Init. Cond. Year 2100 Loss (ha)
(ha) () --------------- ----------
---- ------- Dry land 49,000 38,800 21 Swam
p 18,100 17,100 5 Tidal swamp 8,300 1,400
83 Fresh marsh 800 600 25 Tidal
fr. marsh 4,000 1,500 75 Brack.
marsh 10,700 11,100 4 Salt
marsh 25,100 19,700 38 Tidal flat
100 5,500 9000
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Net Change (1986-2100)
Wetland Area C Sequestration
(ha) (MT/yr) --------
------- -------------- Tidal
fresh -2,500 -3000 (120 g C/m2/yr) Brackish
marsh 400 480 (120 g C/m2/yr) Salt
marsh -5,400 -1620 (30 g C/m2/yr)
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II. Climate Variability
Identify relationships between climate
forcing functions (annual rainfall,
temperature, discharge, salinity) and
temporal variation in ecosystem services
(emergent biomass, epifauna, sediment
deposition, accretion/subsidence and
commercial shrimp harvest). (GCE LTER
monitoring data, NMFS data)
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