Title: Example: STC earthquake preparedness in Georgia. 11. Stage
1The Future of ICT in Relief
- RedR Conference, London
- December 5, 2007
- Edward Granger-Happ
- CIO, Save the Children
- Chairman, NetHope
-
2 - "The art of prophecy is very difficult--
especially with respect to the future." --Mark
Twain
3Looking Back
"Progress, far from consisting in change, depends
on retentiveness. Those who cannot remember the
past are condemned to repeat it. --George
Santayana
4The world is an increasingly unsafe place to be
5Banda Aceh Ground Zero
5
6What are the key questions?
- What is fundamental in disaster relief?
- What is fundamental in long-term development?
- Is technology a benefit to communities in crisis?
- For relief operations, do we bet on on-line or
off-line applications? - Can supply chain management (SCM) be a
competitive advantage for nonprofits? - What is commodity and what is value-added for a
non-profit?
7What is this large object?
- a very large ship 5 miles inland in the middle of
the road
8Changing Priorities By Program Type
Ranking factors 1-4, 1highest
For emergency response, time and volume are king
for development, cost and quality reign
9In 7 yrs, cost drops 30x and speed increases 400x
10Stages of a Disaster
- Stage 0 Preparedness
- Relief agencies
- Collaborate and determine roles in a disaster
- Determine systems of data, voice, video and
physical exchange - Develop a protocol for engagement
- Catalog relief resources
- Partner with local communities
- Prepare to engage, inform and steward potential
donors - Example STC earthquake preparedness in Georgia
11Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
- Stage 1 Within hours of disaster striking
- First relief workers arrive on the ground.
- Survey and assess damage, transmit pictures,
security information, relief material and
personnel requirements to Head Offices. - Agencies decide how deeply involved they will be
with relief efforts. - Locating family members (people dont eat, clothe
themselves or sleep until they found their loved
ones) - Example CRS in sectarian fighting in eastern
Congo - This is the Highly Individual, Highly Mobile ICT
stage
12IRAQ
12
13Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
- Stage 2 Within two weeks of disaster striking
- Teams begin to arrive on the scene as risk of
disease and malnutrition escalates. - Requirements are continuous monitoring of
disaster, assessment of victim needs, management
of relief material deployment between and across
aid agencies, personnel security, application and
reporting of donated funds, uploading of case
studies, pictures and relief reports. - Example Relief International in Bam, Iran
earthquake - Small Group, Highly Mobile/Temporary ICT stage
14Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
- Stage 3 From one-six months following a
disaster striking to multi-year. - Agencies provide resources for building
reconstruction, counseling, family reunification,
food distribution, water purification, etc. - Agencies become part of the community over a long
period of time. - Example Actionaid in tsunami relief in southern
India - Large Group - Permanent ICT stage
15Stages of a Disaster (cont.)
- Stage 4 Learning
- Lessons learned
- Agencies determine what worked and what did not
work - Then make adjustments
- Example NetHope members in Pakistan earthquake
response
16An NGO Supply Chain
Assessment
Reporting
Country Sub-Office
Plan
Ship
Warehouse
Ship
Ben. Track
Procure
- For development, procurement is competitive for
emergency response, procurement is pre-determined
and agile - Beneficiary tracking is key in the NGO supply
chain commercial SCM applications lack this
17Looking Ahead
18A Triad of IT Drivers
Metcalfs Law the network effect is exponential
Nielsens Law high-end user's connection speed
grows by 50 per year
Moores Law CPUs double every 18 months
19Verizon FIOS Service
- 100 MB/sec fiber to homes!
- This is the same speed as the backplane of a
laptop 3 years ago!
20Bottom Line?
- Dont Bet Against the Network!
- By the time it will take you to work around the
connectivity issues, the network will be where
you need it to be.
21What if were wrong?
- Strategy is about making bets!
22 Advice from a Hockey Legend
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not
where it has been. --Wayne Gretzky
23A Leading Indicator
24Another Leading Indicator
25Current University Students
- I asked Dartmouth Graduate students
- So what do you use to communicate more, IM or
Texting? - Answer Neither
- Neither?
- We do everything in Facebook
26Its the Social Network not the Wired Network
27Why?
- The social network is the future
- Working together in loose-tight ways
- Loose geography (e.g. the NGO community)
- Tight purpose (e.g. disaster relief)
- Richer collaboration (e.g. NetHope)
28 - If youre a CIO, you need to spend a lot of
time out on the fringes of the Web because thats
where the innovations taking place. You need to
spend a lot of time with people under 25 years
old. Gary Hamel
29Did You Know? presentation, Arapahoe High
School in Centennial, Colorado, United States.
30For the rest of the world, this is the Internet
31(No Transcript)
32Key strategic questions
- If we will have all the bandwidth we need
globally, what changes for relief applications? - If the 1 device used in emergency response is
the cell phone, what changes when the cell phone
can operate like todays laptops? - Do we build disconnected applications for the
interim or wired applications for the future? - ONE MORE TIME Where is the puck going to be?
33Questions?
34Appendix
35Top Ten Themes
- Continuing explosion of computing hardware
triangle - Global communication growing geometrically
- Commoditization of technology components
- Retirement of the current middle class
- Flattening from triple convergence
- Run-the-business software (ERP)
- Increasing regulatory framework
- Results-oriented philanthropy
- Rise in world-class, operational excellence
- Rise in merger and acquisitions
36On Leaders and Followers
- First-movers the pioneers, trail-blazers, fast
agile leaders but with higher costs and higher
risksrequires serious focus - Second-movers the fast followers capitalize on
the mistakes/learning of pioneers follow the
successes, but need to overcome the leaders - Frugal-movers the pragmatic followers more
cautiously follows industry leaders, picking what
works well, waiting for lower costs of entry may
constantly be in catch-up mode - Late-movers the laggards, miss most
opportunities, resist change sometimes luck-out
37Key strategic either-or bets
- Follower
- IT focused on operations
- More effective-efficient service depts
- Add results-oriented ME data/reporting when
donor demand is unavoidable - Build technology and operations incrementally
- Capacity building by staffing and training
- MOS operations
- Leader
- Programs leveraging technology
- More effective and efficient programs
- Lead NGOs and set the results-oriented ME data
and reporting standard - Leapfrog competitors by buying the best
operations - Capacity building by staffing, training
leveraging technology - World class operations
38Pendulum Dichotomies - IT cycles over the past 50
years
- Left Brain (60s, 90s)
- Centralized
- Standardized
- Generalized
- Rationale
- Autocratic
- Big is Better
- In-source
- Tight
- Right Brain (70s, 80s)
- Decentralized
- Customized
- Specialized
- Creative
- Democratized
- Small is Beautiful
- Outsource
- Loose
The next wave?
391. Continuing explosion of the computing hardware
triangle
- Applications data will be distributed
in-country, closest to sources
lowest-cost-to-maintain locations, yet will seem
as if we are running programs on our desktops. - Continued time-compression made possible by
readily available, cheaper faster technology
means an increasing real-time involvement in each
others work, and donor participation in programs.
This will drive greater levels of collaboration,
but not always in ways we expect or want. For
example, fact that donors providers will be
able to virtually participate in program
planning, delivery evaluation, may be
unwelcome, but inevitable. - Cheaper, faster information communication
technology (ICT) will also mean that where work
gets done will become less relevant highly
flexible. Working real-time in groups while in
different locations will become commonplace, as
will employees working from home, on road, etc. - These trends will also drive greater levels of
collaboration among NGOs, as is already evident
with consortia like NetHope, LINGOS IWG/ECB. - Increased 24 x 7 connections will continue to
drive up stress make it more difficult to
unplug from work. Productivity gains rapidly
produce information saturation, high stress
burn-out. Managing work-life balance will
therefore become a major organizational issue
need in near future.
402. Global communication will -continue to grow
geometrically
- Digital divide among world's population will
widen rather than narrow as acceleration in
computing outpaces global adoption. Efforts to
bridge this gap will need to double triple.
Educating adolescents on use of computers as a
way to break cycle of poverty will become
increasingly important from a programmatic
standpoint. - Need for technology education programs among
emerging countries will increasingly become a
requirement for children to thrive as productive
adults. - Most strategic use of technology is to deliver
wholly new programs, or existing programs in
wholly new ways, that would not be possible
before application of technology. This means
thinking abut programs in a new way - For dissemination of information (outward flow),
technology can play a more capacity building
role. This impacts all of sectors. flip side is
collection reporting of information (inward
flow) from beneficiaries to providers in terms of
basic ME data.
413. Commoditization of technology components
- shift from development to integration (already
one of IS strategic shifts) will continue to
accelerate. - Moving IT work to regions and country offices
will need to become part of our IT strategy.
424. Retirement of the current middle class
- Immediate impact will be on staffing positions
(technology and others!), with a resulting
sellers market and bidding war among
organizations. This will require three
responses - moving more jobs offshore, developing our field
locations to do more headquarters jobs, - moving up food chain to do higher-level tasks in
HQ (e.g., integration rather than development for
IT), and - use of more standard, off-the-shelf software and
tools. - opportunity is keep aging workers engaged, with
more creative retirement and semi-retirement plans
435. Flattening from triple convergence
- Internet revolution means (1) new global playing
field, (2) new businesses processes (3) entry
of huge workforce of China, India Soviets - Donors will increasingly expect to work directly
with field programs, to do so virtually,
working through the Internet. Those nonprofits
that are able to offer this will increasingly
attract donors who expect this.
446. Run-the-business software
- Save will increasingly be in catch-up mode if we
do not make leap to enterprise software. - time investment to take this leap will become
less attractive the longer we delay, forcing us
to look to an acquisition strategy of buy it now
rather than build it for later. - most effective program delivery organizations
will attract a greater share of donor
contributions from ever more sophisticated donors
who will have had first-hand experience with
efficiently run corporate organizations expect
this from nonprofits they support. - success of the Alliance its long-term
initiatives of Unified Presence Stronger
Members will increasingly demand shared
enterprise software.
457. Increasing regulatory framework
- Increasing administrative systems support will
be required to meet growing regulatory demands.
Compliance will be more expensive than our
physical security costs to-date - Choices
- Do we build now in anticipation, or react
after-the-fact? - When is the right time to invest?
468. Results-oriented philanthropy
- Investment in higher-order systems will be
required, such as Executive Information Systems
(EIS), Balanced Scorecard systems (BSC),
GYST-like program tracking systems - Choices
- Do we lead NGOs and set the standard, or do we
follow when donor demand is unavoidable?
479. Rise in world-class, operational excellence
- increasing emphasis on process will require new
sets of expertise among our employees to work in
process-improvement mode - Significantly more data collection reporting on
administrative programming processes themselves
will be required. demand will rise for data,
data, more data. - Nonprofit donors will increasingly expect direct
access to this data
4810. Rise in merger and acquisitions
- key opportunity is for buying rather than
building impact - For example, we are faced with prospect of
spending 3-5M over next 3-5 years migrating from
our legacy donor management system to a
world-class system. Yet at end of this process,
we will be where some of our competitor agencies
are today - Choices
- Do we build incrementally, or leapfrog
competitors by buying the best?
49From IS Staff Briefing
501. Continuing explosion of the computing hardware
triangle
- Hardware triangle
- Bandwidth Verizon FIOS service
- Disk storage Google server farms
- CPU speed Moore's law
- As all three of these factors accelerate, the
cost per unit continues to fall. - the cost of computing power is now around
1/1,000 of 1 percent of what it cost 50 years
ago. - PCs have dropped in price an average of 21 per
year since their introduction - If the automobile had followed the same
development cycle as the computer, a Rolls-Royce
would today cost 100, get a million miles per
gallon, and explode once a year
512. Global communication will continue to grow
geometrically
- By 2010 there will be 2.5B mobile phones
subscribers--twice as many as PC's - 88 per cent of e-mails are junk including 1 per
cent virus-infected - e-mail messages rising by 84 per cent each year
- 1,035 million mobile phone text messages sent
each month in Britain - 37 average texts per user sent per month compared
with 21 in 2001 - 1 million children aged under 10 in Britain (1 in
3) own a phone - 8 years old is the average age at which a child
gets a mobile phone in Britain
524. Retirement of the current middle class
- 50 of people in technology jobs will be leaving
their jobs in the next 10 years. With this will
go their knowledge experience. More
importantly there are fewer technology people to
take their place. - NASA has 3 times number of people over 60 versus
those under 30 - More than 50 of IT workers in US government are
eligible to retire by 2013 - Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Case 40 of
TVAs staff is eligible to retire in 5 years
535. Flattening from triple convergence
- Internet revolution means
- new global playing field,
- new businesses processes
- entry of huge workforce of China, India Soviets
- See Thomas Friedmans book, The World is Flat for
an abundance of evidence of the trends so far in
the 21st century.
546. Run-the-business software
- There will be nonprofit Enterprise Resource
Planning (ERP) systems that will standardize and
streamline all administrative processes. It will
then extend to the processes of delivering
programs themselves. - Blackbauds new strategy to be the Enterprise
Resource Planning (ERP) vendor to nonprofits - Children Internationals (CIs) recent porting of
a mid-enterprise ERP to their sponsorship
business model - CARE, World Vision and the World Food Programs
adoption of the enterprise-wide GYST program
management and reporting system
557. Increasing regulatory framework
- Following the impact of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) on
for-profits, we can expect an increasing
regulatory framework for non-profits. - Changes in the annual IT audits at nonprofits
strongly indicate this trend as do recent
charitable regulation changes in CA and NY - For example, the total SC/US audit costs have
increased 38 since FY04 the IT portion has
increased 50 based on time required to complete
it.
569. Rise in world-class, operational excellence
- Following corporations, we can expect a rise in
world-class, operational excellence to be a
factor in nonprofit success. - We will see streamlining programs such as Work
Out, Six Sigma and Lean Thinking applied to
nonprofits - Our own recent experience with business process
improvement (BPI) in Leadership Giving, and the
streamlining task force are cases in point.
5710. Rise in merger and acquisitions
- We can expect to see a rise in merger and
acquisitions for the nonprofit sector. This will
result in combining of operations and the systems
used to support them or the migration of one
partners systems to the other - Having seen internal consolidations succeed for
such recognizable groups as the Girl Scouts and
the American Lung Association, nonprofits of
various shapes and sizes are testing the waters
for possible mergers and are often taking the
plunge. - CSM notes that there are 1.3 million nonprofits
today, growing at the rate of 7 per year (80,000
to 90,000 new nonprofits are created each year)
58Worldwide cellular access is exploding
59International Internet Bandwidth Growth by
Region, 2002-2005