Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for LAC Asuncion, Paraguay, 14-18, August, 2006
1Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training
Workshop for LACAsuncion, Paraguay, 14-18,
August, 2006
Integration of VA Analysis by Vute Wangwacharakul
2Outline
- Introduction
- Integration of results
- Cross sector and multi-sector integration
- Setting priorities
- Vulnerability
- Adaptation
- Examples
- Conclusions
3Introduction
- Commitments
- Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should
develop and publish their national
communications. - Guidelines
- Parties should communicate to the COP a general
description of programs containing measures to
facilitate adequate adaptation, etc. (decision
17/CP.8)
4Reporting Components
- The following categories of impacts/vulnerability
are expected to be reported agriculture,
tourism, health, forests, water resources,
infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions,
ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries
and the economy.
5- Para. 34 of the Guidelines
- Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide
information on their vulnerability to the impacts
of, and their adaptation to, climate change in
key vulnerable areas. Information should include
key findings, and direct and indirect effects
arising from climate change, allowing for an
integrated analysis of the countrys
vulnerability to climate change.
6an integrated analysis
- Two possible interpretations
- Information provided in SNC should allow for
communicating national vulnerability to climate
change in an integrated manner - Integrated analysis of VA is encouraged,
particularly in the key vulnerable areas - We emphasize the second one
7Integrated Assessment
- Integrated Assessment can be defined an
interdisciplinary process of combining,
interpreting and communicating knowledge from
diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that
the whole set cause-effect interactions of a
problem can be evaluated.
8Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation
- Vulnerability is a function of the character,
magnitude and rate of climate change and
variation, to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity and its adaptive capacity Summary
for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II) - Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to
adjust to climate change (including climate
variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to
cope with the consequences Summary for Policy
Makers (IPCC WG II
9Why is Integration Important?
- Impacts do not happen in isolation
- Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
affect another - Some sectors are affected directly and/or
indirectly - Sector linkages could reduce the extent of the
impacts of climate change - The issues addressed are dynamic in nature
- Integration is necessary for ranking
vulnerabilities and adaptations
10Main Types of Integration of Results
- Cross-sector integration
- Link related sectors (I-V-A in selected sectors
qualitative or quantitative) - Multi-sector integration (System approach
quantitative) - Economy or system wide models
- Integrated assessment models
- Economy-wide models (mathematic or econometric
models)
11Some Integrated Assessment Models
- IMAGE
- ICLIPS
- CLIMPACTS
- MIASMA
- AIM
12Cross-sector models
- CC - water resources - agriculture
- CC - temperature - mosquitoes - health
- CC - temperature - heat wave - health
- CC - rainfall - flood/drought - agriculture etc.
- mostly quantitative
13Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES Crop
water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
14An Example
- IAM in Cuba
- Agriculture and water resources (considered
demographic, technology, food consumption) - Potato yield would be dropped and worsen by water
problem and population - Technology only marginally reduced the effects.
- Changing sowing date could be good adaptation
measure for maize
15Multi-sector Integration Modeling
16IMAGE Model
17Regional/National Economic Models
- Quantitative way to examine climate change market
impacts throughout an economy - Problem with non-market impacts
- Mostly macroeconomic models or general
equilibrium models - Require much data
- Complex and can be expensive
- Communication of assumptions can be a challenge
18An Example of a Regional Model
19Asia Integrated Model
20A More Simple Approach
- Add up results sector by sector
- Limited by what is known within sectors
- Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
points - Impacts may be measured with different metrics
- Need to account for many sectors
- Does not capture sectoral interactions
21Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -1.2
22Can Also Measure Number of People Affected
- Millions at Risk study did this
- Global burden of disease
23Millions at Risk Study
24At a Minimum
- Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
and possible direction of impacts - If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
identify how change in water supply could affect
agricultural production
25Integration through Setting Priorities
26Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
- It can be quite useful for
- Focusing adaptation measures
- Monitoring
- Adaptation
27Examples of Adaptation Integration
- Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA)
- Integration of adaptation into national policies
dealing with risk management and into their
Environment Impact Assessment procedures. - Mozambique (World Bank)
- Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks
into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction - Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA)
- Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into
sustainable development planning
28Example of Adaptation Integration
- China (ADB, World Bank)
- helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions-
government undertook integrated ecosystems
management-house-level eco-farming integrated
renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard
cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand
and providing forage.
29Process is as Important as Outcome
- This is an expression of values, not a purely
analytic exercise - Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
- The following are tools that can be useful in
setting priorities - Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
approach, the important thing is learning-by-doing
30 NAPA Process
31Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
32OECD Method
33Ranking Adaptations
- Screening
- Multicriteria assessment
- Benefit-cost analysis
34Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
35Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
36Benefit-Cost Analysis
- Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
metric to determine whether benefits gt costs - Monetary values often used
- Difficulty what to do about non-market benefits
or uncertainties - Difficulty requires much data and analysis
37BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
38What to Use
39Conclusions
- Integration is important to at least identify
related impacts - Analysis is desirable because there can be
surprises - Integration can also be useful for examining
total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities - It is interdisciplinary process
40Conclusions
- There should be involvement of local
stakeholders, the private sector, individuals,
the research community and different levels of
government. - Awareness raising and capacity building also
essential.