Summary and Recap: CSES

1
Summary and Recap CSESs Impact on the
PNWImplications for Climate Services in the PNW

• Ed Miles
• CSES Review
• December 3, 2004

2
Summary and Recap Contributions to Climate
Impacts Science

• Defining the PDO
• Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter
  climate and key natural resources
• Identifying 20th century trends on PNW
  temperature, precipitation, and snowpack
• Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate,
  streamflow, forests, and summer sea surface
  temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca
• Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of
  global climate change on PNW climate and
  resources
• Identifying barriers to effective use of climate
  information and characteristics of adaptive
  institutions

3
Summary and Recap Contributions to Decision
Support (CV)

• Seasonal climate outlook for the PNW
• Climate forecasts for use in resource management
• Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts
  based on ENSO/PDO
• Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival
  forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon
• Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts
• Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk
  forecasts
• Reinstitution of the Office of the Washington
  State Climatologist

4
Summary and Recap Contributions to Decision
Support (CC)

• Climate change temperature, snowpack,
  precipitation, and streamflow scenarios
• Climate change streamflow scenarios for water
  supply planning (bias-corrected, targeted
  locations)
• Client-based research consultancies (e.g.,
  climate change impacts on municipal water
  supplies)
• Optimization models for evaluating impacts of
  climate change on streamflow management
• Technical assistance to watershed planning efforts

5
CSESs Impact on the PNW
6
Influencing Operations and Policy

• Cultivated agency interest in information
  supporting planning for climate variability and
  change. Evidenced by
• Strong attendance at meetings (e.g. fall
  forecast, climate/salmon, hydrologic scenarios,
  climate and water policy meetings)
• Research partnerships and consultancies (e.g.,
  municipal water suppliers, ID Dept of Water
  Resources, Northwest Power and Conservation
  Council, USACE, Bureau of Reclamation)
• Requests for presentations (75/year)
• Survey results demonstrating institutional
  learning in key sectors

7
A Sea Change in Perceptions
Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of
value and relevance of information about climate
variability and change
1995 Few managers saw role for climate info,
recognized predictability of climate, or
possessed a conceptual framework for applying
climate info
1997-98 El Niño and concomittant media
attention stimulated widespread interest in
information about climate variability and in CIG
Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential
impacts of climate change and unprepared to use
such information
2001 Senior-level water resources managers
recognize climate change as a potentially
significant threat to regional water resources
acknowledge climate change information as
critical to future planning
2001/2 50-year drought brings intense media
attention to issue and CIGs work ? public
private pressure on State agencies to include CC
impacts in long-term planning ? significant
involvement of CIG in multiple efforts see below
2003/4 Continued significant breakthroughs with
stakeholder groups highlighted below
8
Impacts on Fisheries Science, Management and
Recovery Planning

• Information about PDO and ecosystem regime shifts
  percolating through Pacific fisheries management
  agencies
• International Pacific Halibut Commission,
  International Pacific Salmon Commission, North
  Pacific Fisheries Management Council, Pacific
  Fisheries Management Council, AK/WA/OR Depts of
  Fish and Wildlife
• Collaboration on climate and coho life cycle
  studies with NWFSC (Lawson) and AFSC (Logerwell)
• 4 paper series led to formal collaboration
  arrangement with NWFSC
• Proposed NOAA/NWFSC initiative on climate change
  and freshwater ecosystems (CIG, NWFSC, U. Idaho)
• WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife salmon management
  changed to recognize climate uncertainty
• Ongoing collaboration with Col. Riv. Intertribal
  Fish Commission
• CRITFC developed proposed alternative Col. Riv.
  operating plan based on CIGs streamflow
  projections
• Current PhD work on chinook salmon (Sharma)
• NWFSCs Oceans and Human Health Initiative
  collaboration
• Pilot study of climate change and Snohomish R.
  salmon recovery planning with NWFSC (Ruckelshaus,
  Battin, Palmer, Wiley)

9
Specific Examples of CSESs Influence on
Operations and Policy

• CSES asked to participate on WA and OR advisory
  committees for West Coast Governors Climate
  Change Initiative and write a high-level briefing
  memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the
  governors offices (July 04)
• COE/CSES climate change impacts study proposed
  for the Green River. Larger goal help draft
  national guidance for COE incorporation of
  climate change into project analysis (11/04)
• CSES asked by Skagit River System Coop. to
  develop a watershed-based climate impacts
  assessment for Skagit Basin (10/04)

10
Specific Examples Influencing Ops and Policy
contd

• Utilities roundtable from the Puget Sound region
  established in fall 2004 to discuss the use of
  climate information in electric utilities
  management. Will meet 2x/year in March and
  October (key decision periods).
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council adding a
  climate change chapter to agencys 5th power
  plan. Looking at implications of climate change
  for streamflow in the power system.
• CSES asked by the COE to prepare memo on climate
  change impacts to Kootenai River flows as part of
  Section 7 ESA consultation on White Sturgeon
  (11/04).
• Query from Senator John Kerrys office on
  legislation needed to help agencies adapt to
  changing streamflows as a result of climate
  change (5/04).

11
Specific Examples Influencing Ops and Policy
contd

• Studies for Seattle Public Utilities, Portland
  Water Dept, Tualatin Water Dept, ID Water Dept,
  Northwest Power and Conservation Council.
• Private sector and environmental organizations
  demanded that OR Water Dept include climate
  change in long-term planning as a result of CIGs
  work and media coverage.
• Governor Lockes keynote address at state
  watershed meeting stating that climate change is
  a major long-term challenge and referencing
  likely impacts on the PNW (11/19/02).
• Climate change added to North Pacific Research
  Boards Strategic Plan for physical/biological
  and human dimensions research to encourage
  systematic study ala CIG in North Pacific.

12
Specific Examples Influencing Ops and Policy
contd

• Key briefings and presentations
• Invited speaker at U.K. AAAS/House Science
  Committee-sponsored briefing on climate change in
  D.C. panel member at AAAS special session on
  climate change (Feb 11-13, 2004)
• Testimony on snowpack trends before U.S. Senate
  Committee on Commerce, Science, and
  Transportation (April 26, 2004)
• 1 hour presentation on climate change before
  special session of the Idaho Committee on Natural
  Resources (June 3, 2004)
• 1 hour presentation on CSES, climate change, and
  decision support before Oregon House Subcommittee
  on Water (August 9, 2004)

13
Work with the Media

• CSES has established an important and valuable
  working relationship with local and national
  media
• Hundreds of local and national news stories
  featuring CSES research, researchers since 97
• Major Seattle P-I special report on 11/13/03
• Stories in San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle P-I,
  Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The
  Oregonian
• Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU
  (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBSs The NewsHour
  with Jim Lehrer)

14
All results to-date based on this model
15
Institutionalizing the CSES

• Since its inception in 1995, CSES has become
• The leader in exploring the impacts of climate
  variability and change on the PNW
• A regionally-recognized and widely respected
  source for information about climate impacts,
  assessment methodologies, and potential response
  strategies
• This success results directly from the diverse,
  inter-disciplinary, integrated, and committed
  research team that makes up CSES
• This success has come despite the difficulty of
  sustaining an interdisciplinary group in a
  University environment due to
• Low Salaries
• Lack of permanent positions
• Inability to reward non-academic pursuits
• Lack of permanent University commitment to
  address problems of PNW

16
To the Future Integrated Watershed Analysis
Responding to stakeholder demand for information
applicable to real-world watershed planning issues
17
Implications for the Transition to Operational
Climate Services in the PNW

• Developing the institutional capacity to provide
  climate services is neither quick nor easy.
  Requires
• Defining the types of climate information that
  are most useful for the specified applications
• Producing very specific, mutually defined
  products
• Building trust with stakeholders over time
• Developing an integrated research and outreach
  team for continued innovation
• The successful delivery of climate services
  requires the establishment (and maintenance over
  time) of a middle-man between the providers and
  users of climate information
• Must have research and interpretive/outreach
  arms, e.g., climate extension service
• Individual agencies and industries assume
  operational responsibilities only after products
  are developed, tested, and demonstrated

18
External Stresses
Institutional Barriers

• Climate Research Community
• Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting
• Anthropogenic climate change projections
• Diagnostic analysis and interpretation

Climate Impacts Group
Managed Natural Resource Systems
climate
Nature

• Institutions
• - Resource Managers
• Policymakers
• User Communities

CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE
nature
humans
Adaptation Change
19
The Future

• The transition to climate services for the PNW,
  and its ultimate form (University, Govt, Private
  Sector), remains to be mutually defined by NOAA
  and CSES.