Title: Air Cargo Trends Presentation to the CAC ACINA Air Cargo Conference
1 Air Cargo TrendsPresentation to the CAC /ACI-NA
Air Cargo Conference
Warren Thompson
Regional Vice President InterVISTAS Consulting -
Winnipeg
7 December 1999
2The Air Cargo Industry
3Air Cargo Economics
- Air cargo 1997 40 billion industry 2017
120 billion - World Freighter fleet double by 2017
- 1997 1,434
- 2017 2,706
4Air Cargo Source of Lift
- World Air Cargo Capacity
- 1997 275 billion ATKs
13 of pax airline revenues
Source Boeing
5Growth
6Air Cargo Trends
- Air cargo grows three times faster than the
world economy
Fedex Begins Service
7Air Cargo Will Triple in 20 Years
Source Boeing
8Pacific and Atlantic Equal Size
- International Air Cargo Forecast
Source Boeing
9Asian Markets Will Lead Growth
Source Boeing
10Integrators US Domestic Share
11Integrators International Growth
36
6
Source Boeing
12Intl Cargo Will Grow Faster
Source Boeing
13Markets
14Transborder Air Trade
- 1985
- Northbound 45,000 tonnes
- Southbound 45,000 tonnes
- 1997
- Northbound 250,000 tonnes
- Southbound 60,000 tonnes
- Dramatic Northbound Growth
- Little Southbound Growth
Source Boeing
15North American Cargo Forecast
- TO 2007
- US domestic 4.9 pa
- Canada domestic 3.6
- Transborder 5.8
- growth limited by expansion of time definite
trucking (1000 miles or less)
Source Boeing
16Slowing Truck Frequencies
Source Boeing
17NA Forecast International
- To 2007
- To/from Latin America 6.4 pa
- To/From Europe 7.0
- stronger growth Westbound
- To/From Asia 7.0
- eastbound dominated
- stronger growth eastbound
Source Boeing
18Aircraft
19Freighter Share Will Increase
- Stronger growth in air cargo demand than growth
in pax belly lift - Implies increased demand for freighters
- Freighter share increases
- from 36 in 97 to 42 in 2017
- Combi share decreases
- from 5 to 2
20Used Aircraft Will Dominate
Growth
Source Boeing
21Largest Increase is in Widebody
Source Boeing
22Airports
23Drift From Traditional Gateways
- Reasons cargo is moving from away from
traditional gateways - congested
- curfews
- high land values
- high labour costs
- not located near actual markets
24Emerging Specialist Cargo Airports
- Canada
- Hamilton
- potential at Comox, Gander
- U.S.
- Ft. Worth Alliance, Columbus Rickenbacker,
Huntsville - Europe
- Liege, Halle, Chateauroux, Europort Vatry
- new efforts Pilsen, Drewitz, Lamezia
25Thank You !