Future challenges: Linking the MA with Climate change, resilience and human wellbeing

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Future challenges Linking the MA with Climate
change, resilience and human wellbeing
MA follow-up meeting Stockholm 22-23rd October
2007 Johan Rockström Executive
Director Stockholm Resilience Centre
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MA Future Challenges in the face of turbulent
times

• The worlds most thorough scientific stock-taking
  exercise on
• Driving forces behind ecosystem decline
• State and trends of ecosystem functions and
  services
• The importance of ecoystems for human well-being
• Future scenarios and policy response options to
  conserve ecosystems
• The dynamics of social-ecological systems across
  scales feedbacks, tipping points and
  transformations
• The role of ecosystem services for climate
  adaptation and resilience building among poor
  communities
• Advancing valuation of ecosystems for human
  well-being
• Governance implications and the role of
  resilience, vulnerability, adaptation and
  transformation for sustainable management of the
  Earth system

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A biosphere shaped by humanity
Potsdam Memorandum 10th October 2007 Is there a
third way between environmental destablisation
and persisting under-development? Yes, there is,
but this way has to bring about, rapidly and
ubiquituously, a thorough re-invention of our
industrial metabolism the Great Transformation.
This is an awesome challenge, yet we have one
comparative advantage over all previous
generations an incredibly advanced system of
knowledge production that can be harnessed, in
principle, to co-generate that transformation
together with courageous political leaders,
enlightened business executives and civil society
at large
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The Planetary Response
The Planetary Response to global change drivers
(Steffen et al., 2004)
From Steffen et al. 2004
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Globalisation of the Environment Fishmeal imports
to shrimp farming in Thailand
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Anthropocene already affecting us
Kilimanjaro 1970

Kilimanjaro 2000
Courtesy Will Steffen, 2006
e.g. Steffen et al. 2004. Global Change and the
Earth System A Planet Under Pressure.
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The Earth as a System Understanding the
predominance of periods of gradual and abrupt
change
The Vostok Ice Core Four Cycles of
Glacial-Interglacial Cycling
Earths metabolism shows a regular pattern with
cycles of about 100,000 years. The ranges of
CO2, other gases and temperature are tightly
constrained at both upper and lower levels.
Petit et al. 1999
In summary, there is a high degree of
self-regulation in the metabolism of the Earth
System.
From Steffen et al. 2004
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Humanitys period of grace the last 10000 years
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THE RISK FOR ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE EARTH SYSTEM
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE IMPACT
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C SOURCES AND SINKS (Gt/yr)
2.7 2.7 5 free ecosystem service, but
unlikely to be a free lunch
WATER
LAND
Adapted from New Scientist 19 May 2007
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The Planet....Ocean Acidity
One of the sleeping giants of global change
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Global Water Hot-spots

Geographic patterns of climate change impacts on
water resources are consistent between
GCMs Arnell 2004
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Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System
After Schellnhuber 2002
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we are still a long way from understanding how
our climate system accomplished the large and
abrupt changes so richly recorded in ice and
sediment. However, despite this ignorance, it is
clear that Earths climate has proven itself to
be an angry beast. When nudged, it is capable of
a violent response.
Abrupt Changes in the Earth System W.S. Broecker,
Science 300 1519-1522 (2003)
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Shift in governance landscape
CROSS-SCALE AND CROSS-SECTOR INTERACTIONS,
POSITIVE FEEDBACKS AND TIPPING POINTS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS INCREMENTAL ECOSYSTEM
CHANGE
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OBSERVED TRANSFORMATIONS AND REGIME SHIFTS
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Ecological Regime Shifts Erosion of ecosystem
resilience
Valuable Ecosystem Services
Loss of ecosystem services Desirable Undesirab
le
1
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The potential flip of the Baltic Sea A
vulnerable Social-ecological system under extreme
stress
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Stocks of predatory fish (cod, tuna, flatfish).
Source Christensen et al. 2003, Fish
and Fisheries 4, 1-24.
1900
1950
1975
1999
Figure 11
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Gulf of Maine a disaster in the making?
co-management success in disguise
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Social Transformation of the Management the
Great Barrier Reef Regenerate to a coral
dominated state after disturbance
Bellwood et al. 2004. Nature 429827-833
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Lack of Social Resilience in the face of a Major
Environmental Trigger Hurricane Katrina, 2005
New Orleans, USA
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Drought, Fires and Food A social transformation
in the making?
Australia The Never- Ending Drought
In January 2003, violent wildfires
devastatedCanberra, Australias capital city
Drought is into its 5th year across much of
eastern Australia this appears to be part of a
30-year drying trend in the region. 87 of New
South Wales is currently drought-declared. Water
supplies of Sydney and Canberra are at their
lowest levels in history Sydney has less than
two years remaining.
Photo The Canberra Times
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Regional Regime shift in the Sahel versus current
Greening Trend
Climatic regime shift followed by adaptive
management and social transformation?
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Adaptation to Climate ChangeAn urgent
development challenge
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In Conclusion

• Major Research challenges ahead in the fields of
• Social-ecological resilience for Sustainability,
  linking GEC, resilience and development
• Governance models that operationalises the
  Precautionary Principle and internalises
  Ecosystem functions and services
• A new model for Growth - Valuation of Ecosystems
  for development
• Down-scaling global trends sub-global
  assessments particularly in developing countries