Michael E. Mann

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Michael E. Mann Department of Meteorology
Director, Earth System Science Center Penn State
University
Interdisciplinary Scientific Environmental
Technology (ISETCSC) Day Public Lecture North
Carolina AT Greensboro NC February 23, 2009
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Senator James Inhofe (R) Oklahoma
With all of the hysteria, all of the fear, all
of the phony science, could it be that man-made
global warming is the greatest hoax ever
perpetrated on the American people? It sure
sounds like it.
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Most of the observed increase in globally
averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
is verylikely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United
Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
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• Dire Predictions
• Understanding Global Warming

• Climate Change Basics

• The Projections

• The Impacts

• Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Solutions

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• Dire Predictions
• Understanding Global Warming

• Climate Change Basics

• The Projections

• The Impacts

• Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Solutions

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Discovery of the Greenhouse Effect
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Why is it called the Greenhouse Effect?
X
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Why is it called the Greenhouse Effect?
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NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT
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Anthropogenic GREENHOUSE EFFECT
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Feedbacks
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Water Vapor Feedback
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Ice-Albedo Feedback
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Uncertain!
Cloud Radiative Feedbacks
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FEEDBACKS INVOLVED IN GLOBAL WARMING
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FEEDBACKS INVOLVED IN GLOBAL WARMING
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FEEDBACKS INVOLVED IN GLOBAL WARMING
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Historical CO2 measurements
Charles Keeling
Began in 1958
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Historical CO2 measurements
Began in 1958
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Prehistoric Greenhouse Gas Measurements
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Prehistoric Greenhouse Gas Measurements
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Prehistoric Greenhouse Gas Measurements
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Prehistoric Greenhouse Gas Measurements
Business as Usual scenario

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Global Surface Temperature Changes


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Global Surface Temperature Changes


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Global Surface Temperature Changes
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Global Surface Temperature Changes
Other Variables
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Glacial Retreat
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Glacial Retreat
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Reconstructions of Past Climate
Climate Proxy Data
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Reconstructions of Past Climate
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Reconstructions of Past Climate
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Theoretical Climate Models
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Theoretical Climate Models
Natural Factors
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Theoretical Climate Models
Natural Factors
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Theoretical Climate Models
Human Factors
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Theoretical Climate Models
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• Dire Predictions
• Understanding Global Warming

• Climate Change Basics

• The Projections

• The Impacts

• Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Solutions

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Projected Future Warming
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Projected Future Warming
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Other Associated Changes
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Sources of Uncertainty
Cloud Radiative Feedbacks
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Sources of Uncertainty
El Nino
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Sources of Uncertainty
El Nino
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Sources of Uncertainty
Ice Sheet Collapse
Ocean Conveyor belt collapse
Sea Ice Decline
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• Dire Predictions
• Understanding Global Warming

• Climate Change Basics

• The Projections

• The Impacts

• Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Solutions

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Potential Impacts
Sea Level Rise
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Potential Impacts
Sea Level Rise
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Sea Level Rise
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Extreme Weather - Heat waves
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Potential Impacts
Katrina August 2005
Wilma October 2005
Extreme Weather- Tropical Cyclones
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Drought
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and floods
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Biodiversity Loss
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War
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War
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Famine
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Pestilence and Death
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• Dire Predictions
• Understanding Global Warming

• Climate Change Basics

• The Projections

• The Impacts

• Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Solutions

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• Dire Predictions
• Understanding Global Warming

• Climate Change Basics

• The Projections

• The Impacts

• Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Solutions

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Geoengineering
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RealClimate is a commentary site on climate
science by working climate scientists for the
interested public and journalists. We aim to
provide a quick response to developing stories
and provide the context sometimes missing in
mainstream commentary.
Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann
Eric Steig, William Connolley, Ray Bradley,
Stefan Rahmstorf, Rasmus Benestad, Caspar Ammann,
Thibault de Garidel, David Archer, Ray
Pierrehumbert
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Reducing Emissions
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Reducing Emissions
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Reducing Emissions-Energy Supply
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Reducing Emissions-Energy Supply
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Reducing Emissions-Transport
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Reducing Emissions-Transport
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What can I do about it?
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What can I do about it?