Title: A Summary of ABC evidence Presentation to the PACHA 32904
1A Summary of ABC evidencePresentation to the
PACHA 3/29/04
Edward C. Green Harvard Center for Population
and Development Studies
2Most HIV is transmitted through sexual
intercourse. Having multiple sexual partners d
rives AIDS epidemics. If people did not have m
ultiple sexual partners epidemics would not
develop or once developed be sustained.
3YetAIDS prevention programs do not address the
behavioral pattern of multiple partners except
in oblique ways. Programs funded by major dono
rs do not directly address this crucial factor
4Two approaches to disease prevention
1. Risk reduction or remedies interventions
condoms treating STIs with drugs
2. Risk avoidance abstinence or delay of age of
first sex mutual monogamy.
This dichotomy is imperfect because reduction in
number of sexual partners would have to be
classified as risk reduction not avoidance.
Primary Behavior Change
5ABC Strategy
6AIDS prevention strategies were developed in the
United States with the American epidemic in
mind. When HIV infections are concentrated in
high risk or core transmitter groups MSM CSW
IDU as in America or Thailand it may make
sense to focus interventions on risk reduction
i.e.
- Condoms
- Treatment of STIs
- Provision of clean syringes
7Yet perhaps this prevention model should not have
been exported to Africa intact without modifying
it for the epidemic pattern found in
SubSaharan
Africa
8Prevention resources go to risk reduction to
medical devices and medicines and this is the
basis upon which we monitor and evaluate AIDS
prevention programs The 4 main areas of prevent
ion today are Condom social marketing VCT
leading to drugs and/or condom use
Treatment of STIs PMTCT based on nevirapine
9Meanwhile A and B risk avoidance
interventions are largely ignored
or left to religious groups Yet these C and
D risk reduction strategies have not proven
very effective in Africa. Some examples of recen
t research follow showing that the condom
solution to AIDS is not working very well
10Hearst and Chen UNAIDS study 2003
inconsistent condom use does not
protect against HIV there are no definite e
xamples yet of generalized epidemics that have
been turned back by prevention programs based
primarily on condom promotion.
UNAIDS multisite study condom levels found to
be nondetermining of HIV infection levels
Weller and Davis 2002 consistent condom
effectiveness provided 80 in rate of HIV
infection Shelton and Johnston 2001 there are o
nly 4.6 condoms per male per year in Africa
Uganda is 4.0 below average
Which countries have highest condom rates? See
next
11Average number of condoms per male 1549 in
African countries for which data are available
12Kenya HIV Prevalence Condom Sales
HIV Prev
Condom Sales
13Botswana HIV Prevalence Condom Sales
14Cameroon HIV Prevalence Condom Sales
Condom Sales
Urban and Rural Prevalence
15- Conclusions [by PSI]
- Condom sales tend to rise over time but so does
HIV prevalence
- condom sales increases alone have not led to
reductions in incidence or prevalence in many
countries.
- perhaps not in any countrycertainly not in any
country with a generalized epidemicTG
- Other Conclusions there may not be any causal
connection but 78 studies now show association
between condom use and greater HIV infection
levels than among nonusers probably because
inconsistent use disinhibition false sense of
security
16Uganda in 1993
Something different was happening something that
the experts had not predicted
HIV infection rates had started to decline yet
condom rates were too low to have had any
significant impact
17Decline in National HIV Seroprevalence in Uganda
Based on 15 Sentinel Surveillance Sites
18The prevention approach that was developed in
Africa
The ABC approach Abstain Be faithful or use
Condoms Uganda put strong emphasis on and res
ources into fidelity abstinence delay of debut
among youth who were the primary targets in AIDS
prevention. In spite of all we hear about ragin
g hormones behavior changed first and to the
greatest degree among age group 1519. This group
also had the greatest decline in HIV prevalence.
19Ugandas Early Response
- National response began in 1986 with bold
leadership by President Museveni.
- The period 198691 is important since HIV
incidence eventually prevalence peaked then.
- Condom social marketing didnt take off until
mid1990s. There was some condom promotion from
the beginning but this approach was not favored
by the President.
20President Museveni on condoms
Just as we were offered the magic bullet in
the early 1940s we are now being offered the
condom for safe sex. We are being told that
only a thin piece of rubber stands between us and
the death of our continent. I feel that condoms
have a role to play as a means of protection
especially in couples who are HIVpositive but
they cannot become the main means of stemming the
tide of AIDS. President Museveni 1991
21Pres. Musevenis approach
He put emphasis on persuading youth to delay sex
until they were married and those already
sexually active were urged to be faithful to one
partner only zerograzing.
When I had a chance I would shout at them h
e said. [I used to say] you are going to die if
you dont stop this. You are going to die
22Distinguishing features of the prevention
approach all beginning 19867
and in addition to an ABC approach
- Bold leadership at the highest level open
discussion re. AIDS sexual behavior sounded
the alarm
- AIDS preventive education in primary schools
reaching children before they are sexually
active
- Involvement of religious leaders
- Involvement of PLWHAs in AIDS prevention
- Fear arousal meant to engender risk perception
and behavioral change
- Facetoface open discussion about AIDS
community involvement
- Major involvement and advancement of women and
youth
- Fought AIDSassociated Stigma
23Changes in sexual behavior among men in Uganda
WHO/GPA surveys 1989 1995
24Changes in sexual behavior among women in Uganda
WHO/GPA surveys 1989 1995
25Types of reported behavior change in UgandaDHS
1995
26Types of reported behavior change in UgandaDHS
1995
27Types of reported behavior change 3 Ugandan
Districts 20002001
28Newsweek on Uganda
A cover story about AIDS in Africa in Newsweek
1/17/00 points out that its not all doom and
gloom there is at least one success story to
learn from Uganda. In Ugandahealth workers
turned Protector condoms into musthave fashion
accessories simply by introducing a flashy new
package and a marketing slogan So strong so
smooth. No other method of prevention was eve
n mentioned.
29Actual Condom use in the general population of
Uganda
In 1995 about 6 of sexually active Ugandans
used a condom with some regularity according to
the Demographic and Health Survey.
By 2000 this rose to 11 of sexually active Uga
ndans or 8 of all Ugandans. However condom use
has become quite high among those who need them
most namely those relatively few who are still
having multiple partners e.g. among CSW
clients 95
30Thailand
Thailand was the first country in Asia to docum
ent HIV epidemics among IDUs and among sex
workers and their clients. Between 198990
shocking prevalence figures emerged and were
allowed to be broadcast to the public e.g. 1989
findings that 44 of Chiang Mai brothel workers
were HIV Thailands national response to AIDS
began in 1989. Directed initially by Mechai
Viravaidya and the Population and Community
Development Association PDA
31Thailand early national response
Primary target groups were adolescents CSWs
clients of CSWs and wives of men with multiple
partners Pattalung and Bennett 19903
Campaign used fear arousal messages to attract
attention to convey the core information that
AIDS is fatal but can be prevented
Condom use and partner reduction were the prima
ry behavior change messages. Abstinence/delay
became part of the message but not clear when
and to what degree.
32Thai response
Rapid dissemination of information through
leadership structures down to grassroots
AIDS education was incorporated into school cur
ricula in 1990. Religious leaders were mobiliz
ed New Prime Minister 1991 became directly i
nvolved in AIDS control. Chaired the national
AIDS committee helped develop a 5year plan.
Since HIV prev. declined sharply after m
id1990s it is useful to look at behavioral
changes prior to this decline
33Early results in Thailand
Comparison of national behavioral surveys in 1990
and 1993 just prior to drop in HIV prevalence
of men reporting premarital or extramarital
sex in last year fell from 28 to 15
of men visiting CSW from 22 to 10 and consi
stent condom use reporting always using condoms
incommercial sex rose from 36 to 71.
Phoolcharoen et al 1998 AIDS
By 1996 condom use rose to 97 in brothels an
d to 89 among indirect sex workers e.g.
massage parlors in Bangkok
34Evidence of continuing behavioral change
visits to female sex workers and condom
use at last visit in 21 year old males
in the north.
Percent of sample
35No Transcript
36Parallels Thailand Uganda
An early and vigorous response
An indigenous strategy developed by both
governments before much foreign TA
34 years after national response began si
gnificant behavior change had occurred including
less casual sex
HIV prevalence had peaked.
There was also Open discussion Commu
nity mobilization Strong Political leadership
Explicit messages no softpedaling of messages
.
37Replicability of Ugandas success
There seems to be no reason Ugandas ABC model
could not be replicated in other countries with
generalized epidemics. re. the forcing the m
odel argument we donors have already forced a
universal risk reduction model everywhere
whatever the culture or epidemiological
pattern Stoneburner and LowBeer 2000 say t
he effect of HIV prevention interventions in
Uganda particularly partner reduction appears
to have had a similar impact as a potential
medical vaccine of 80 efficacy.
38ARVs and VCT
The big interest nowadays is in ARVs. VCT is the
entry point to treatment and it is also being
promoted as an effective tool of prevention.
Leading authorities are now saying we cant
expect behavior change unless people know their
serostatus. Yet there was a great deal of
behavior change in Uganda and Senegal and
elsewhere in the absence of VCT and only 10 of
Ugandans have been tested in Uganda even today.
The evidence that VCT leads to behavior change a
nd lower HIV Prevalence is mixed. If The C in
VCT is based on ABC then it could lead to
positive behavior change