Thoughts about Integrating Social Science with Weather and Climate

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Thoughts about Integrating Social Science with
Weather and Climate

• Julie Demuth
• NCAR Societal Impacts Program
• (with input from Andrea Schumacher)
• CSU Applied Climatology Class
• September 19, 2007

( from a Meteorologist)
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For starters

• The weather-climate continuum
• When is the distinction relevant?
• What ideas, methods, and tools are transferable?
• Is it salient?
• Lets discuss!

3
The forecast high temperature for Fort Collins
tomorrow is 83F.
What do you think the actual high temp will be?

• 83F
• 82-84F
• 81-85F
• 78-88F
• 73-93F

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Like Other Fields, Weather and Climate Do Not
Exist in Isolation
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Meteorology and medicine?

• Uncommon similarities with the health field
• Fields are continually advancing
• Due to improved understanding, empirical studies,
  better computing and technological capabilities
  
• Whole host of sub-specialties
• Communication challenges
• Plagued by uncertainty, which we have to act
  upon!
  
• Lack of perfection

Regardless of why any of us got into the field,
Id argue that the ultimate purpose of these
fields is the service to society
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The great spectrum
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Outline

• Weather and climate research that integrates
  social science
  
• Communication of forecast uncertainty
• Examples of other research
• Outreach activity that integrates social science
• Weather and Society Integrated Studies
• Deviant thinking
• Brainstorming

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Communication of Weather Forecast Uncertainty
(CoFU)
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Motivation

• Atmosphere is nonlinear, chaotic, and complex

? Forecast uncertainty is inevitable!

• First public forecasts in the modern weather
  forecasting era were called probabilities
  
• But forecasting generally evolved into more
  deterministic products
  
• Yet, most users understand that forecasts are
  imperfect

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Motivation (cont)

• By communicating uncertainty information, we can
• Avoid misrepresenting the capabilities of our
  science
  
• Better convey what we know
• Help users make more informed decisions

This is also true for climate information, from
seasonal to long-term predictions!

But there are some differences
. . .
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A real example
A good climate-related article
Hartmann, H. C., T. C. Pagano, S. Sorooshian, and
R. Bales, 2002 Confidence builders Evaluating
seasonal climate forecasts from user
perspectives. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83,
683698.
Broad, K., A. Leiserowitz, J. Weinkle, and M.
Steketee, 2007 Misinterpretations of the Cone
of Uncertainty in Florida during the 2004
Hurricane Season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88,
651-667.
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Objective

• To effectively communicate uncertainty-explicit
  forecasts, need social science research
  
• To support provision of this information through
  survey of U.S. public to assess
  
• Peoples sources, perceptions, uses, and values
  of weather forecast information
  
• Peoples interpretation of, use of, and
  preferences for weather forecast uncertainty
  information

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Survey details

• Pre-tested survey during development
• Implemented web-based survey in November 2006
  with sample population provided by survey
  sampling company
  
• Respondent population
• N1465 completed responses
• Good geographic distribution
• Compared to census data, our sample
• Has similar gender, racial, and employment
  distributions
  
• Is slightly older, wealthier, more highly educated

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Uncertainty research questions

• How much confidence do people have in different
  types of weather forecasts?
  
• Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic
  forecasts and, if so, how much?
  
• How do people interpret probability of
  precipitation forecasts?
  
• Do people prefer to receive deterministic or
  uncertainty-explicit forecast information?
  
• In what formats do people prefer to receive
  forecast uncertainty information?

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Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic
forecasts and, if so, how much?(Perception)
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Suppose the forecast high temperature for
tomorrow for your area is 75?F.

• What do you think the actual high temperature
  will be?

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In what formats do people prefer to receive
forecast uncertainty information?(Preference)
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All the choices below are the same as a
probability of precipitation of 20.

• Do you like the information given this way?

• Chance of precipitation is 20
• There is a 1 in 5 chance of precipitation
• The odds are 1 to 4 that it will rain
• There is a slight chance of rain tomorrow

? Percent ? Frequency ? Odds ? Text
Asked this question 3 ways -- using 20, 50, and
80 probabilities of precipitation with
corresponding descriptions
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Overall distribution ( yes)
100
20
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percent
Frequency
Odds
Text
N489,
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Some uncertainty questions related to weather
and climate

• How do we know whether users understand the
  uncertainty information we provide?
  
• How do we know whether the uncertainty
  information we provide is useful?
  
• Are there different situations in which people
  prefer (a) different uncertainty information, or
  (b) uncertainty information conveyed in a
  different way?
• How do we provide good uncertainty-explicit
  information given the proliferation of
  information (sources, media, modes)?

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Examples of Other Research Activities
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More examples

• Warning decisions in extreme weather events A
  look at four user groups
  
• Driving decisions during the Dec 20-21, 2006,
  Front Range blizzard
  
• Cognitive interpretation of hurricane track
  forecasts

http//www.colorado.edu/hazards/research/qr/qr192/
qr192.html
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More examples

• Indigenous knowledge about climate change in
  Alaska and Tuvalu
  
• Mosquito-borne diseases in a changing climate
• Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
  (RISAs)

www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa
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Weather and Society Integrated Studies (WASIS)
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The creation of WASIS

• Eve Gruntfest geographer whose career was
  launched by the Big Thompson flood
  
• Julie meteorologist with background in science
  policy interest in societal impacts
  
• Rebecca Morss meteorologist who is doing work
  that really integrates social science
  
• Jeff Lazo Director of the NCAR Societal Impacts
  Program
  
• Sheldon Drobot applied climatologist working on
  sea-ice and surface transportation

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WASIS vision

• To change the weather enterprise by
  comprehensively and sustainably integrating
  social science into meteorological research and
  practice.

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WASIS mission

• Build an interdisciplinary community of
  practitioners, researchers, and stakeholders --
  from the grassroots up -- who are dedicated to
  the integration of meteorology and social science

Capacity building -- creating a community for
lifelong collaboration and support!

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WASIS mission (cont)

• Providing opportunity to learn and examine ideas,
  methods, and examples related to integrated
  weather-society work

• Tools GIS, surveys, qualitative methods
• Concepts problem definition, speaking the same
  language, end-to-end-to-end process
  
• Topics risk perception, vulnerability,
  resilience

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WASIS workshops

• Began as one workshop
• Grown into 5 workshops (so far)
• Original Boulder WASIS (Nov 2005 Mar 2006)
• Norman WASIS (April 2006)
• 2006 Summer WASIS (July 2006)
• Australia WASIS (Jan-Feb 2007)
• 2007 Summer WASIS (July 2007)
• 145 total WASISers!

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WASIS accomplishments

• New collaborations and projects
• Influence on peoples research
• Peer mentoring
• Idea development and sharing
• Demuth et al. article forthcoming in November
  issue of BAMS

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Additional WASIS activities

• WASIS compendium of projects to highlight
  successful research projects and partnerships
  that integrate social science with
  weather/climate
• NWS WASIS workshop, Oct 24-25
• Connect NWS WASISers
• Strategize ways to integrate social science into
  the NWS paradigm, in both local offices and at
  broader organizational level

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WASIS Andreas personal account

• Participated in WASIS Summer 2007
• Some Lessons Learned
• Societal impacts are more complex than the
  reasons listed on grant proposals.
  
• Dont try this at home. Social science requires
  extensive training in proper methodology, so
  
• Collaborate on projects and integrate social
  science research with your own.
  
• Learning to speak each others language is
  crucial.
  
• I alone cannot determine what other people need
  from weather and climate research
  

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WASIS Andreas personal account

• What came out of WASIS for me?
• Collaborations / Projects (in the works)
• Pet project
• Collaborating with other WASIS participants from
  TWC and MSU
  
• Survey pending IRB approval
• Ft. Collins FF Bike Path Warnings
• Project outlined during WASIS, once again as a
  collaboration
  
• Initial response from Ft. Collins Stormwater Mgt
  favorable, still waiting for response from Dept.
  of Parks and Recreation
  

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Positive deviance

• Positive deviance from the norm idea originated
  by the Save the Children non-profit
  organization
  
• Amazing change can come about by building on new
  thinking and capabilities that start from within
  a community

Gawande, A., 2007 Better A Surgeons Notes on
Performance. Metropolitan Books, 273 pp.
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Suggestions for deviant thinking

• Ask questions
• Observe
• Read widely
• Take time to think
• Talk to someone who doesnt think exactly like
  you do, especially someone from a different
  discipline

Let it all inform what you do and change how you
approach a problem in the future!
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Brainstorming

• Seemingly countless opportunities of studying
  weather and climate impacts and integrating
  social science!
  
• What ideas do you have related to your work,
  related to others work, or about anything?

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Positive Deviance - Example

• Andreas (Humble) Example
• Re-evaluating current research project
• Spoke to end-users at IHC
• JTWC formal evaluation of TCFP product
• Look into understanding societal impacts related
  to TC genesis problem (less clear than other
  hurricane-related areas, like rapid
  intensification and track)
• Exploring new projects/ideas
• CC _at_ CSU lecture series
• AT755
• Diversified reading (Hazards, Climate change,
  etc)
  
• Keeping an eye on the big picture

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Acknowledgements

• Dr. Tom Vonder Haar
• NCAR Societal Impacts Program
• Institute for the Study of Society and
  Environment
  
• Research Applications Lab
• Andrea Schumacher

jdemuth_at_ucar.edu 303-497-8112
www.sip.ucar.edu www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis www.isse
.ucar.edu
www.ral.ucar.edu