International Forum for Democratic Studies June 28, 2006

1
International Forum for Democratic StudiesJune
28, 2006

• Assessing Slovakias 2006 Parliamentary
  Elections Domestic and Regional Implications

Grigorij Mesenikov Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fell
ow President, Institute for Public Affairs (IVO),
Bratislava
www.ivo.sk
2
Content of the Presentation

• Overall Framework Slovakias Transition
• Public Perception of Democratic Transition and
  Reforms
  
• Pre-election Situation Patterns of Electoral
  Behavior and Value Orientations
  
• Election Rivals Party System and Party Politics
• Elections Results Analytical Findings
• Domestic and International Implications

3
Pre-election Slovakia in the International Press

• Imagine you're the leader of a country where
  economic growth is running at 6.3, your
  government has been praised by the World Bank as
  the best market reformer in the world,
  unemployment has fallen to a record low of 10.6
  from around 20 in just four years and your flat
  19 corporate, value added and income tax rate
  led Steve Forbes to call your country an
  "investors' paradise." Imagine, also, that your
  country has seen foreign investment sky-rocket to
  the point at which it will shortly become the
  world's biggest per capita car maker, and where
  your people's feelings about their sense of
  national worth have gone from shame to something
  approaching pride. Oh, and as icing on the cake,
  imagine too that you got your country into the
  European Union and NATO.
• With this record in mind, now consider that
  you face parliamentary elections at which
  you risk annihilation by a leftist opposition
  party with no experience of government and a
  policy agenda filled with populist rhetoric.
• 
  
  
  
• Robin Shepherd, The Dzurinda Revolution,
  Wall Street Journal Europe, June 12, 2006

4
Results of Slovakias 2006 Elections
Seats (150)

• Votes
• Smer-SD - 29.14
• SDKÚ-DS - 18.35
• SNS - 11.73
• SMK - 11.68
• LS-HZDS - 8.79
• KDH - 8.31

5
Slovakias Transition to Democracy

• 19901992 basic systemic changes,
  institutionalization of democracy
  
• 19931998 new nation-state building, democratic
  deficits, authoritarian illiberal tendencies,
  struggle for democracy, maturation of democratic
  forces and civil society actors
• 19982004 consolidation of democracy, removal of
  illiberal legacies, accession to EU and NATO,
  launching radical socio-economic reforms
  
• 2004present post-integration adaptation,
  deepening pro-market reforms, improving quality
  of democracy

6
Slovakias Elections

• 1990 ex-post plebiscite against communism
  center-right democratic parties win
  
• 1992 definition of Slovakias position in the
  common Czechoslovak state proponents of the
  specific Slovak way of transition win
  
• 1994 social justice in the context of
  transformation broad alliance of authoritarian
  populists (radical nationalist, neo-communist,
  and charismatic parties) win
• 1998 renewal of democracy and ambitions in
  EU/NATO integration broad alliance of democratic
  forces (left/post-communist, center-right, and
  ethnic minority parties) win
• 2002 confirmation of democratic reforms
  completion of accession process pro-reform
  democratic center-right parties win
  
• 2006 quality of democracy and governance,
  continuity of reforms

7
Slovakia Nations in Transit Ratings and
Averaged Scores
Source Freedom House
8
Indicators of Socioeconomic Development
- prediction Source Statistical Office of the
Slovak Republic, Ministry of Labor and Social
Affairs
9
Accomplishments of the 20022006 Period

• Membership in EU and NATO
• Long-term macro-economic stability
• Stability of democratic institutions
• Influx of FDI
• Launching profound reforms of
• Tax system
• Public administration
• Pension system
• Social benefits system
• Health care
• Judiciary system
• Military forces
• Democracy promotion activities in EU
  neighborhood
  
• Well-balanced domestic inter-ethnic relations

10
Failures of 20022006 Period

• Unsuccessful effort to launch education reform
• Permanent conflicts within ruling coalition
• Inefficient governmental communication about
  socio-economic reforms to the population
  
• Unclear deals behind support for government in
  parliament suspicions of political corruption,
  high level of distrust of state institutions and
  political actors
• Declining citizen participation in politics,
  decreasing voter turnout in elections
  
• Persistence of large discrepancies between
  countrys regions
  
• No substantial improvement in the socioeconomic
  status of the Roma minority

11
Public Perception of Current Societal Development

• Critical views on macro-social development
  traditional social skepticism as a part of
  political culture
  
• Dominance of socioeconomic optics
• Realistic and slightly positive views of personal
  life situation
  
• Tendencies to accept basic reforms combined with
  skepticism of their outcomes
  
• Cognitive disconnect between the outcomes of
  reforms and personal life situation, resulting in
  support of parties opposing reforms and proposing
  the alternative options

12
Is Slovak Society Moving in Right or Wrong
Direction?
Source FOCUS IVO, 1998 - 2006
13
How Did the Situation Change in the Following
Areas Since the Last Elections?
Source IVO 1997, 2002 a 2005.
14
What is the Financial Situation of Your Family
Compared to the Situation One Year Ago?
Source IVO 2003, 2004, 2005.
15
Are You Satisfied With Your Own Life?
Source FOCUS 1994, IVO 2004 a 2005. Note
Rest of 100 is answer do not know.
16
The Most Pressing Problems of Society
Source IVO, April 2006.
17
Citizens Views About Reforms
Source IVO, April 2006.
18
Voter Turnout in Parliamentary Elections

• 1990 95.39
• 1992 84.20
• 1994 75.65
• 1998 84.24
• 2002 70.06
• 2006 54.67

Source Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic
19
Reasons for Declining Voter Turnout

• General distrust in political parties
• Disappointment with socio-political development
• Disappointment with political party performance
• Election does not matter
• Low interest in politics
• My vote does not matter
• High frequency of electoral acts, election
  fatigue
  
• Changed character of main political conflicts
  shift from politics to policies
  
• Declining levels of NGO involvement

20
How Do You Usually Vote in Elections?
Source IVO, April 2006
21
What Matters in Voters Decision
Source MVK Agency, April 2006
22
Most Important Area in Partys Program
Source MVK Agency, April 2006
23
Ideological Self-definition of Slovakias Citizens
Source IVO, April 2006.
24
Which Type of Economy Would You Prefer?
Source IVO, April 2006.
25
Necessity of Changes After Collapse of Communism
Source IVO, April 2006.
26
Party System and Party Politics in Slovakia

• Divisions into two groupings of parties
• Fragmentation of center-right forces
• Demise of postcommunist left
• Liberal parties disappear and re-emerge
• Excessive personalization of party politics,
  long-term existence of one-man-show-type parties
  
• Coalition governments
• Eight parties with real chances to be elected in
  2006 one big party, four medium-sized parties,
  three small parties

27
Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy)

• Self-declared Social Democrats (accepted in
  Socialist International and in Party of European
  Socialists)
  
• Left populist party, annexed postcommunists
• Party with radical anti-reform rhetoric
• Number of illiberal elements in political
  culture
  
• Law and order principle dominates over
  principle of rule of law
  
• One-man-show-type party
• Tycoons financial background
• Party with the four-world-sides-concept of
  foreign policy, loudly protest against war in
  Iraq, neglect democracy promotion activities

28
SDKÚ-DS (Slovak Democratic and Christian Union
Democratic Party)

• Party of the 1998 democratic change
• Self-declared Christian Democrats (accepted in
  European Peoples Party European Democratic
  Union)
  
• Mixture of moderate pragmatic Christians and
  pragmatic liberals
  
• Some elements of cultural liberalism
• Party of continuity at power with image of
  patron-client-connections user
  
• Party of socio-economic reforms and integration
  into EU and NATO
  
• High profile in democracy promotion activities in
  EU neighborhood

29
SNS (Slovak National Party)

• Party of semi-authoritarian rule and illiberal
  practices before 1998
  
• Radical ethnic nationalists with elements of
  historic revisionism
  
• Party of cultural xenophobia and isolationism
• Restrictive approach toward ethnic minorities
  (Hungarians, Roma)
  
• Anti-reformist and state-paternalist views in
  economy
  
• Pro-Russian stance in foreign policy
• Rejected as potential coalition partner by some
  parties

30
SMK (Party of Hungarian Coalition)

• Party of the 1998 democratic change
• Self-declared Conservatives (accepted in
  European Peoples Party European Democratic
  Union)
  
• Ethnic minority party with strong regional
  priorities
  
• Merger of Hungarian conservatives, liberals and
  moderate nationalists
  
• Pro-reform party emphasizes necessity of
  combining radical economic changes alongside
  softening measures in welfare policy
  
• High profile in democracy promotion activities in
  EU neighborhood

31
LS-HZDS(Peoples Party Movement for a
Democratic Slovakia)

• Party of semi-authoritarian rule and illiberal
  practices before 1998
  
• Self-declared peoples party (not accepted in
  any international party organization)
  
• Ideologically empty formation
• One-man-show-type party
• Verbal support of continuation of reforms, but
  with softening corrections
  
• Declared pro-Western stances in foreign policy
• Eager to be in power after 8 years in opposition,
  prepared to coalesce with any other party to
  enter government

32
KDH(Christian Democratic Movement)

• Party of the 1998 democratic change
• Self-declared Christian Democrats (accepted in
  European Peoples Party European Democratic
  Union)
  
• Party of conservative Catholic Christians,
  programmatic anti-liberal force (Kulturkampf)
  
• Party of moral minority
• Law and justice principle
• Pro-reform party emphasizes some aspects of
  social solidarity
  
• Genuine Slovak Euro-skeptics and moderate
  nationalists, supporting freedom fighters in Cuba
  and Belarus, demanding withdrawal of the Slovak
  troops from Iraq

33
SF(Free Forum)

• New centrist party splinted from SDKÚ
• Moral opposition to PM Dzurinda
• Appeal to anti-Meciar sentiment
• Party of political improvisation, internal
  conflicts
  
• One-woman-show-type party
• Frequent situational cooperation with left
  opposition parties in the parliament
  
• Selective support for socio-economic reforms

34
KSS (Communist Party of Slovakia)

• Non-transformed, old-style Marxist-Leninist
  party
  
• Party of systemic opposition claiming comeback of
  socialist society
  
• Rejection of any pro-market, socio-economic
  reforms
  
• Sympathy to dictatorial regimes (China, Cuba,
  North Korea, Belarus, Syria)
  
• Anti-Western, anti-integration and isolationist
  position in foreign policy
  
• Rejected as a potential coalition partner by all
  parties

35
Parties on Democracy Market Economy Axis
Liberal democratic politics
Economic liberalism
KSS
36
Parties Policy Voting in Parliament
Source INEKO
37
Voting Preferences (Rating) of Political Parties
Source Public Opinion Research Institute, 2005 -
2006
38
Which Party Do You Think Was the Most Active in
the Recent Electoral Term?
Source Polis Slovakia Agency, May 2006
39
Which Party Has the Best Professionals?
Source Polis Slovakia Agency, May 2006
40
Voter Expectation of Election Results and Further
Development
Source IVO, April 2006.
41

Slovakias Next Prime Minister

Source Polis Slovakia Agency, May 2006
42
Election Campaign

• Main topics of the campaign
• possible scenarios of reforms (continuity,
  cancellation, fine-tuning)
  
• state policies in economy, welfare, health care,
  education and local development
  
• cultural-ethical dispute (religious conservatism
  vs. secular liberalism)
  
• identity (ethnic nationalism vs. state
  citizenship minorities rights)
  
• post-election coalition strategies (who with
  whom?)
  
• Absence of EU-agenda
• Czech factor (impact of election campaign and
  election results in the Czech Republic through
  inter-party links)
  
• Unexpected appearance of war-in-Iraq-related
  topics in the campaign
  
• Relatively low profile of NGOs activities
  compared to1998 and 2002 elections
  
• no voter mobilization campaign
• merely informative and analytical projects of
  think tanks
  
• NGOs challenged political parties in policy
  issues (transparency,
  
• party financing, environment, culture)

43
Outcomes of Slovakias 2006 Elections Figures
Seats (150)
44
Outcomes of Slovakias 2006 Elections Facts

• Electoral victory of the strongest left party
  (Smer-SD)
  
• Remarkable success of radical nationalists (SNS)
• Good results of moderate center-right parties,
  especially SDKÚ-DS
  
• Fiasco of Meciars LS-HZDS
• Demise of communists (KSS)

45
Shifts in Electoral Support Party Groupings
46
Electoral Gains of Party Groupings

• Grouping of center right parties
• (SDKÚ-DS SMK KDH
• SF ANO 2 minor parties)
• 44,27
• 65 seats

Grouping of left parties (Smer-SD KSS 4 m
inor parties) 33,96
50 seats
Grouping of populist and nationalist parties
(LS-HZDS SNS HZD 4 minor parties) 21,77

35 seats
47
Parties Voter Gains and Loses
48
Voting Patterns
First-time voters
Voters older than 60 years
Source MVK Agency, exit poll 2006
49
Two Most Successful Parties Breakdown by
Education and Age

Source MVK Agency, exit poll 2006
50
Voting Patterns People in . . .
Villages and small cities (2,00010,000
inhabitants)
Large cities (more than 100,000 inhabitants)

Source Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic
51
Victorious Parties in the Regions
Source Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic
52
Political Messages of Slovakias 2006 Elections

• Socioeconomic dispute instead of dispute on
  democratic rules
  
• Identities matter
• Agreement/disagreement with reform policies
  remain unchanged, balanced
  
• Continuing urbanization of center-right parties
  electorate
  
• Winners of reforms prevailingly supported
  center-right parties, losers of reforms
  inclined to support left and national populist
  parties
• Left is stronger than before, but still not
  dominant

53
Possible Scenarios in Coalition Building

• Smer-SD SNS LS-HZDS (85 seats)
• Smer-SD KDH SMK (84 seats)
• Smer-SD LS-HZDS SMK (85 seats)
• SDKÚ KDH SMK LS-HZDS (80 seats)
• Smer-SD SDKÚ (81 seats)
• Minority government of Smer-SD (50 seats) or
  SDKÚ-DS SMK KDH (65 seats) with opposition
  agreement
  

54
Slovakias Positions in Foreign Policy in
1998-2006

• Strong commitment to Euro-Atlantic liabilities
• Support for EU enlargement and for deepening the
  EU integration process (endorsement of ECT)
  
• Advocacy for new candidate states (Croatia,
  Serbia, Montenegro) and Ukraines pro-European
  choice supportive position toward Turkeys
  membership
• Pro-reform socioeconomic policies within EU and
  claim for EU internal institutional reforms
  
• Support for continuation of regional cooperation
  in V4 format
  
• Democracy promotion in EU neighborhood
• Moderate stance on ethnic minority issue

55
Recent Parliamentary Elections in Visegrad
Countries

• Poland, September 2005
• Center-right opposition parties won, left ruling
  parties lost
  
• New government formed (augmented by populist
  parties in 2006)
  
• Hungary, April 2006
• Left and centrist ruling parties won, right
  opposition parties lost
  
• Government re-elected
• Czech Republic, June 2006
• Opposition civic democrats (conservatives) ahead
  of the ruling social democrats Christian
  democrats and communists lost.
  
• New (center right) ruling coalition formed.

56
Conclusions

• Slovakia sustains as a consolidated democracy
  with stable and functional institutions
  
• Democratic pro-reform forces enjoy substantial
  public support
  
• Vote for anti-reform forces politically
  legitimizes their alternative, anti-reform
  policies
  
• Election outcomes created variety of options for
  further development
  
• Achievements of democratic transition and
  socio-economic reforms serve as new paradigm for
  political parties in their coalition strategies

57
International Forum for Democratic StudiesJune
28, 2006

• Assessing Slovakias 2006 Parliamentary
  Elections Domestic and Regional Implications

Grigorij Mesenikov Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fell
ow President, Institute for Public Affairs (IVO),
Bratislava
www.ivo.sk