Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of Aid for Trade

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Monitoring Trade Performance in the context of
Aid for Trade

• How ITC can contribute

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Areas where ITC can contribute

• Trade-related information indicators
• Analysis of trade performance
• Qualitative evaluation on effectiveness of aid
  for trade

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1. Trade-Related Information Indicators

• Trade Map
• A database and analytical web application
  covering the trade flows and indicators of trade
  performance for 220 countries and territories
  
• Market Access Map
• A database and analytical web application on
  customs tariffs applied by 185 countries and
  faced by 239 countries and territories. It
  includes ITC pioneered methodologies /
  calculations of ad valorem equivalent tariffs
  allowing protection levels to be aggregated for
  any product or country group
• Investment Map
• A database and analytical web-based application
  that combines information on Foreign Direct
  Investment (FDI), trade, market access and
  foreign affiliate company data to help in FDI
  promotion strategies. It can also be used to
  analyse performance in attracting FDI.
• Trade Competitiveness Map
• An interactive web application ranking countries
  trade performance from a static and dynamic
  perspective at a national or sectoral level
  across a wide range of trade related indicators

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Trade-Related Indicators Analysis Examples
of ITC Collaborations

• World Tariff Profile
• A joint publication of ITC, WTO UNCTAD
  profiling tariff structures of over 150
  countries
  
• Millennium Development Goals
• Tracking progress on market access for developing
  countries and LDCs
  
• World Economic Forum
• Trade and market access indicators for the Global
  Enabling Trade Report 2008
  
• World Bank
• Trade and market access indicators for the World
  Trade Indicators publication and web site

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2. How to Assess Trade Performance?

• Size of exports
• In absolute or relative terms (e.g. USD vs per
  capita)?
  
• Dynamism of exports
• Growth in absolute or relative terms?
• Extent of diversification of export portfolio
• Size of export portfolio in terms of products and
  markets?
  
• Degree of concentration on top products and
  markets?
  
• Composition of export portfolio
• Products for which world demand is strong and/or
  growing?
  
• Commodities where country is a price taker and
  cost competition is critical?
  
• Products that are strongly differentiated and
  less vulnerable to price shocks?
  
• Products with high value addition, economies of
  scale .?
  
• Services?
• Destination markets for exports
• Slow growing vs fast growing?

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Export Diversification products and markets
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Exports per capita versus Growth of exports
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Export portfolio of products Size versus
diversification
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Export diversification Products versus markets
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Considerations when using trade indicators

• Partial view of reality Aggregate value cannot
  be fully interpreted without examining what is
  happening at a more detail level
  
• An overall average performance may hide
  excellent performance in some sectors or regions
  poor in others
  
• Role of multinational firms in country
  performance
  
• Interpretation is not always clear
• Is more always better (e.g. export
  diversification)?
  
• Time dimension
• Weak performance in absolute terms but growing
  rapidly
  
• Analysing the countrys performance relative to
  its real competitors
  
• Situation relative to the world or countries that
  resemble you e.g. export portfolio, economic and
  geographic situation (per capita income, size,
  landlocked, terrain), culture..
• Cant capture the value addition of exports
• The same USD of exports may correspond to very
  different value addition depending on the amount
  of intermediate goods imported e.g. assembly
  work vs full value chain taking place in the
  country

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3. Deepening trade performance analysis with
domestic survey

• Surveys of enterprises on
• Domestic supply conditions
• Competitiveness
• Socio economic impact of the sector (job
  creation, gender, rural development etc)
  
• Interviews with local experts / stakeholders
  (ministries, industry associations, chambers of
  commerce / TPOs)
  
• Business environment conducive to export
• Legal framework
• Fiscal environment
• Political environment

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Possible Indicators

• Trade Performance and Export Diversification
• Export value
• Exports per capita
• Trade or Current account balance / GDP
• Growth of exports and per capita exports
• Share of top 3 products in countrys total
  exports
  
• Share of top 3 markets in countrys total
  exports
  
• Number of exported products
• Average number of markets by product
• Share of dynamic products (or product-markets) in
  total exports
  
• Share of high technology products in exports
• Market Access
• Tariffs faced for agricultural products
• Tariffs faced for non-agricultural products
• Tariffs faced (weighted by import structure of
  importers)
  
• Tariffs faced (weighted export structure of
  exporters)
  
• Investment Trade
• FDI instock / GDP (broken down by agriculture,
  manufacturing other)
  
• FDI / GDP vs Exports / GDP

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Evaluating Effectiveness of Aid for Trade An
infrastructure of partnerships in developing
countries

• ITC can mobilise its network to address questions
  around Aid for Trade e.g.
  
• How conducive is the environment for export in
  your country ?
  
• To what extent has aid for trade in your country
  helped your exports?
  
• ITCs network includes
• Policy Makers e.g. national ministries, trade
  negotiators etc
  
• Trade Promotion and Trade Support Institutions
• Industry Associations through ITC Sector
  Programmes
  
• National Data Providers
• Enterprises (Surveys on local supply conditions,
  NTMs etc)
  
• Periodic Client Surveys