Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions

1
Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• A presentation to the Transport Economics Forum
• David Greig and Dr Yuan Chou

9 September 2008
2
Presentation structure

• Introduction to the problem
• Data and modelling
• Alternative fuels
• Other options for reducing emissions per vehicle
  kilometre
• Options for reducing vehicle kilometres
• Result abatement cost curve
• Acknowledgements
• ACIL Tasman Chris Summerfield, Ken Willett
• King report (UK), AGO, IPCC, McKinsey, Covec
  (NZ), IEA

3

• The challenge

4
Total Transport sector emissions, by sub-sector,
1990-2005
5
Projection of transport energy consumption by
region and mode
6
Fuel use of light vehicle stock
7
Fuel use of light vehicle sales
8
Fuel economy and GHG emission standards
9
Vehicle Ownership/ 1000 Persons
10
Modal split for the cities represented in the
Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable
Transport by region
11
Emissions reduction opportunities and cost by
sector
12

• Modelling

13
Modelling methodology

• Used methodology from BTRE report 107 (2002,2005)
• Updated parameters from a variety of sources
• Method of deriving GHG from transport modes
• vehicles x average KM x L per KM x emissions
  per L
• Modelled the drivers of change in each of these
  components

14
The model

• Different policies affected drivers of emissions
  in unique ways
• Simplifying assumptions needed to model complex
  policies in Excel
• Little scope for reflecting the adaptability of
  policies-
• tended to be all or nothing
• instead of phased approaches and adaptive
  management
• Ballpark results only as good as the
  underlying data and relationships

15
Base year emissions by mode (2005)
16
BAU forecasts of emissions
17
Policy optionsAlternative fuels to reduce
transport GHG emissions
18
Life-cycle emissions
Source adapted from King Review 2007
19
Petrol
20
Impact of vehicle technologies
Source King Review 2007
21
Impact of vehicle technologies
Source www.fueleconomy.gov
22
Diesel
23
CO2 emissions petrol versus diesel cars
24
CNG
25
Relevant transport modes

• Because of limited distribution infrastructure,
  CNG often used in
• depot-based dedicated fleets (e.g. buses, taxis)
• heavy vehicles (e.g. forklifts)
• CNG being trialed in marine applications
• e.g. US Coast Guard vessels, Norwegian ferries,
  small Dubai and Bangkok ferries, and cargo ships
  in Thailand

26
Environmental impact

• Relatively low tailpipe CO2 emissions
• Some fugitive loss of methane in production
• Life-cycle CO2-e emissions 23 lower than petrol
  but higher than diesel
• Other emissions

27
Barriers to increased uptake

• Vehicle range
• Large and heavy storage tanks 4.5x more volume
  than diesel
• Cost of vehicle conversion (4,500)
• Previous government programs failed
• Lack investment in distribution infrastructure

28
Synthetic fossil fuels
29
Types of synthetic fuels

• Synthetic gasoline
• Synthetic kerosene (jet fuel)
• Synthetic diesel
• Methanol
• Dimethyl Ether (DME)
• Production process Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) and
  Coal-to-Liquid (CTL)

30
Barriers to increased uptake

• Capital costs
• per barrel/day capacity at GTL plant costs
  US25-40K (and US80K at a CTL plant) compared
  with US15K for conventional oil refinery (ABARE)
• Production costs
• Distribution infrastructure (DME)

31
Biofuels
32
Environmental impact

• Life-cycle emissions of biofuels depend on
• Type of crop used
• Type and amount of energy embedded in fertiliser
• Resulting crop yield
• Emissions from fertiliser production
• Energy in gathering and transporting feedstock to
  biorefinery
• Energy intensity of the conversion process
• Alternative land uses

33
Cost competitiveness of biofuels
Source IEA 2006
34
Ethanol
35
First generation feedstocks

• Sugar
• Sugar cane
• Sugar beet
• Grain
• Wheat
• Barley
• Corn
• Sorghum

36
Variability in Australian feedstock production
and prices
Source ABARE
37
Barriers to increased uptake

• Water and pesticide requirements
• Competition with food
• High costs need for government subsidies
• Refuelling infrastructure (for E85 and higher
  blends)

38
Biodiesel
39
First generation feedstocks

• Vegetable oils, oilseeds soy, sunflower,
  rapeseed
• Other crops palm, coconut
• Waste frying oil
• Animal fats beef tallow, poultry fat, pork lard
• Environmental impact 49 to 87 lower lifecycle
  GHG emissions than diesel

40
Relevant transport modes

• Rail Virgin Voyager 2007 (B20)
• Maritime recreational boats, inland commercial
  and ocean-going commercial ships, research
  vessels
• Aviation blended with kerosene, Virgin Atlantic
  test flight (biofuel from babassu nuts and
  coconut)

41
Environmental impact

• Life-cycle GHG emissions of biodiesel derived
  from palm oil (compared to diesel)

Source CSIRO 2007
42
Next-generation biofuels
43
Summary of 2nd generation biofuels
44
Next-generation ethanol

• Use of lignocellulosic feedstocks (inedible plant
  fibres) crop residues e.g. wheat and rice straw,
  corn stalks and leaves dedicated energy crops
  (e.g. switchgrass)
• much higher yields per hectare than sugar and
  starch crops
• may be grown in areas unsuitable for grains and
  other food/feed crops
• much lower energy and water use

45
Biogas
46
Production

• Produced by anaerobic digestion or fermentation
  of organic matter
• Feedstock manure, sewerage sludge, municipal
  solid waste, biodegradable waste etc.
• Currently used primarily for heat or electricity
  generation
• Must be purified into natural gas for use as
  transport fuel

47
Applicable transport modes

• Passenger vehicles
• Light and heavy commercial vehicles
• Buses
• Rail
• First biogas train commenced operations in Sweden
  in 2005
• Currently cost 25 more to run than diesel trains

48
Barriers to increased uptake

• Vehicle cost
• In UK, biogas vans cost 15-25 more than
  conventional vans
• Retail price of biogas
• Swedish subsidy estimated at AUD 0.75 per litre
  of petrol-equivalent
• Distribution infrastructure
• Alternative use of biogas in electricity
  generation

49
Hydrogen
50
Applicable transport modes

• Passenger vehicles
• Rail developments in Canada, Japan, USA
• Maritime lower fuel mass advantage
• Aviation requires airframe redesign to
  accommodate larger fuel volumes due to low energy
  density

51
Production processes

• Electrolysis
• Natural gas reformation high GHG emissions
• Gasification of coal and biomass (requires CCS)
• Water-splitting by high-temperature heat
• Photo-electrolysis
• Biological processes

52
Fuel cell vehicles (FCV)

• FCVs convert stored chemical energy into
  electrical energy without combustion
• Fuel cell membrane with air on one side and
  hydrogen on the other
• As hydrogen passes through the membrane to
  combine with oxygen in the air, an electrical
  charge forms at the membrane and water is created
  as a by-product
• An electric motor then provides propulsion

53
FCV trials

• Public transport fleets
• WA fuel cell bus covered 260,000 km as part of
  international trial involving 10 European cities
  and Beijing
• California Fuel Cell Partnership placed 87
  light-duty FCVs and 5 FC buses since 2000
• US Department of Energy initiated
  government/industry partnership for learning
  demonstrations in 2004
• Cars Honda FCX Clarity, Chevrolet Equinox

54
Other approaches to harnessing hydrogen as a
transport fuel

• Hydrogen in internal combustion engine BMW
  Hydrogen 7
• On-board reformers convert petrol, methanol,
  naptha etc into hydrogen to be fed into fuel cell
• Hythane blend of hydrogen and methane that takes
  advantage of complimentary fuel characteristics

55
Barriers to increased uptake

• Immaturity of vehicle technologies
• High fuel production costs
• On-board storage
• Distribution and refuelling infrastructure
• Long-distance transportation pipelines and
  trucks
• Fuelling stations

56
Electricity
57
Environmental impact

• CO2 emissions from electricity and hydrogen under
  various UK grid mix scenarios (g/CO2/km)

Source King Review 2007
58
Electric vehicles

• Petrol/diesel-electric hybrids
• Parallel hybrid electric motor and ICE combine
  to improve efficiency and boost power (electric
  motor used at low speeds, and gives extra
  acceleration at higher speeds) eg. Toyota Prius,
  BMW/Mercedes/GM
• Series hybrid ICE does not drive wheels
  directly but runs at constant, optimal speed,
  acting as a generator or range extender eg.
  Chevrolet Volt
• Full electric vehicles

59
Barriers to increased uptake

• Vehicle cost
• e.g. Toyota Prius (hybrid), Tesla Roadster (pure
  electric)
• Limited range
• Improved with lithium-ion batteries in place of
  nickel-metal-hydride batteries
• Recharging infrastructure

60

• Non-fuel policy options
• Reducing emissions per vehicle km
• Reducing kilometres per vehicle

61
Policies - other options for reducing emissions
per vehicle km (1) cars

• Change to car fleet composition
• Customs duties car industry subsidies
• Fuel efficiency standards
• Car accessories
• Eco driving
• Enhanced vehicle inspections/maintenance
• Much higher fuel prices

62
Policies - other options for reducing emissions
per vehicle km (2) freight

• Improved truck design, increased loads
• Increased rail freight efficiency
• Shift of freight from road to rail

63
Policies options for reducing vehicle
kilometres (1) mode switch

• Personalised journey planning
• Walking and cycling
• Good public transport
• Park and ride
• More flexible taxis/jitneys

64
Policies options for reducing vehicle
kilometres (2) charging

• Road congestion pricing
• Road externality charging
• Distance based insurance charges
• Tighter fringe benefit tax rules

65
Policies options for reducing vehicle
kilometres (3) pooling (4) other

• Parking policies
• Vehicle sharing
• Flexible working, telecommuting
• Increased urban density
• Aviation taxes

66

• Modelling results

67
Important points

• These marginal cost are all stand-alone
• interaction effects need to be modelled
• Portfolios of schemes need to be designed which
  take account of interactions
• Timing of schemes could be varied to maximise
  impact, maximise option value
• Several negative marginal cost projects suggest
  extensive market failures

68
Road vehicle response to policies
69
Portfolio approach With policies emissions by
mode
70
Important points

• These marginal cost are all stand-alone
• interaction effects need to be modelled
• Portfolios of schemes need to be designed which
  take account of interactions
• Timing of schemes could be varied to maximise
  impact, maximise option value
• Several negative marginal cost projects suggest
  extensive market failures

71

• Conclusions