Disasters and Conflict

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Disasters and Conflict

• Zoë Chafe
• Worldwatch Institute
• USIP Global Peace and Security Seminar
• July 12, 2006

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Outline

• Disaster trends
• Natural vs. unnatural disasters
• Case studies of disaster and conflict
• -Aceh -Sri Lanka
• -Pakistan -Hurricane Katrina
• Recommendations and project goals
• Your thoughts and questions

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Why Disasters and Conflict?

• Immediate needs, survival mode
• Direct competition for aid
• Potential breakdown in social services

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Disasters of 2005
Source National Environmental Satellite, Mario
Tama Getty Images, AP, Karl Schular IUCN
Pakistan, Reuters, Wade Laube
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Disasters of 2005 Year of Records

• 650 loss events
• 100,000 deaths (only 3rd year recorded)
• 157 million people affected
• Unprecedented economic losses (210 bil)
• Wilma strongest hurricane in Atlantic
• Delta first tropical cyclone in Canaries

Source MunichRe, CRED
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Disasters of 2006
Source ESRI/USGS, China Daily, AP/Bureau of
Meteorology, Save the Children, Matt Rourke/AP,
International Security Assistance Force.
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This Year Disasters (so far) in 2006

• Afghanistan Landslides, affected 300,000
• Australia Cyclones, 200 million in damage
• Bolivia Floods, 35 million in damage
• China Floods, 957 million in damage, 100 killed
• DR Congo Floods, 75,000 people affected
• Indonesia Yogyakarta earthquake, 5,736 killed
• Iran Earthquake, affected 160,000 people
• US Floods, 200,000 evacuated on East Coast

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Number and Cost of Weather-Related Disasters
19802005
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Deaths from Weather-Related Disasters 19802005
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Average Number Affected by Weather-Related
Disasters 19812005
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Natural or Un-natural Disasters?

• Ecosystem destruction
• Climate change
• Population growth
• Human settlements in risky areas

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World Ecological Footprint, 19612002
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World Population, 19502005
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Annual Population Growth of Cities and Slums,
19902005
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Ecological Safety Net

• Coral reefs and mangroves dampen waves and surges
• Forests prevent localized flooding and landslides
• Case for precautionary principle

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Frequency of Disasters 1980-2004
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Who is at risk?

• Countries with low human development home to 11
  of people exposed to risk
• But account for 53 of deaths from disasters
• Disasters divert funds from social programs
• Erase land and property records
• Economic marginalization
• Women at increased risk

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Number Affected by Disasters 1980-2004
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Disasters and Conflict

• Selected cases of overlap
• Disaster type can dictate amount of press
• Potential to decrease human rights abuses
• Aid can exacerbate conflict
• Displacement can fuel future conflict
• Military role necessary but complicated
• Political leadership crucial

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Case Study Tsunami in Aceh

• Aceh site of 30 year conflict
• Rich in resources rampant poverty
• Illegal logging lucrative for police, military
• Tsunami brought international attention
• Common goals of relief, recovery, reconstruction
• Peace agreement secured in August 2005

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Impacts on Aceh
Acehs total population 4.2 million
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Case study Tsunami in Sri Lanka

• Civil war from 1983 to cease-fire in 2002
• Tsunami affected all parties
• Tamil Tigers accused government of discrimination
  in aid distribution
• Aid slow to reach all communities
• Peace talks resumed, but violence persists

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Impacts on Sri Lanka
Sri Lankas total population 19.6 million
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Case study Pakistan Earthquake

• 50 years of tension between India and Pakistan
• Earthquake killed more than 80,000
• Landslides contributed to suffering
• Border crossings opened for aid distribution
• Disputes over logistics marred goodwill

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Case study Hurricane Katrina

• More than 1,800 killed
• New Orleans heavily impoverished
• Intra-societal conflict under media scrutiny
• Breakdown in communications
• Conflict increasing?

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Foreign Aid to US

• 1 billion in total foreign aid offered
• From 115 countries and organizations
• UAE was largest donor at 100 million
• Kuwait donated 25 million to Red Cross
• UK meals were quarantined
• Offers from Iran, Cuba were rejected

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Recommendations

• Environmental protection for cooperation
• peace parks, regional agreements, monitoring
  programs
• Natural disaster prevention bridges political
  boundaries
• Address war- and disaster-affected populations in
  comprehensive program
• Strengthen civil society, encourage transparency
• Creative and imaginative collaboration

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Future goals of the project

• State of the World 2007 chapter
• Engage disaster and conflict agencies
• Roundtable discussion, Spring 2007
• Disaster book, expected Summer 2007
• Strengthen and update web portal

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Online Portal
www.worldwatch.org/features/disasters
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