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Sustainable Transport in Asian Cities: Indicators of Sustainable Transport

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Work with Asian cities develop, use indicators of sustainable transport ... Need wtd avg driving distances to aggregate up to entire stock and airshed. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Sustainable Transport in Asian Cities: Indicators of Sustainable Transport


1
Sustainable Transport in Asian Cities
Indicators of Sustainable Transport
Lee Schipper Director of Research EMBARQ
http//embarq.wri.org Cornie Huizenga CAI-Asia
Secretariat Asian Development Bank http//cleanair
net.org/caiasia
2
Sustainable Urban Transport in Asia
  • Background - SIDA
  • Swedish International Development Authority asked
    ADB to carry out study of sustainable urban
    transport in Asian Cities
  • Background - ADB
  • ADB has been a leading actor in developing and
    funding transport project in Asia
  • ADB co-founded and supports the city-based Clean
    Air Initiative for Asian Cities
  • Background - EMBARQ
  • Founded by a grant from the Shell Foundation to
    World Resources Institute 2002
  • Leading NGO in developing and carrying out
    sustainable transport projects (Mexico City,
    Shanghai)
  • Invited by ADB (as partner) to carry out this
    project

All Partners Want The Project To Lead To Action
3
EMBARQ
  • Mission
  • Founded by the Shell Foundation to improving
    quality of life through cleaner transport
  • Work with empowered authorities to cause change,
    measure results
  • Home at the World Resources Institute, Washington
    DC
  • Engagement Bring in Stakeholders, Know-How,
    Resources
  • Diagnosis, cure, prognosis, correction,
    evaluation, communication
  • Active partnerships with Mexico City and Shanghai
  • Develop tools and indicators to permit other
    cities to follow
  • Partnership with ADB (with support from SIDA)
  • Survey so-called Sustainable Transport
    activities
  • Work with Asian cities develop, use indicators of
    sustainable transport
  • Catalyze real change with the results, developing
    strategic framework for a larger number of Asian
    cities

4
CAI-Asia
  • Who are We?
  • CAI-Asia is a Multi-sector regional network with
    over 100 institutional members from government,
    Private sector, NGOs, Academe and Development
    Agencies
  • The Clean Air Initiative promotes and
    demonstrates innovative ways to improve the air
    quality of Asian Cities through sharing
    experiences and building partnerships
  • Secretariat is in ADB and WB
  • Goals
  • Sharing knowledge and experiences on air quality
    management
  • Capacity building
  • Improving policy and regulatory frameworks at the
    regional level
  • Assisting cities in formulating and implementing
    integrated air quality management systems
  • Piloting projects to encourage innovation

Creating an Air Quality Management Community in
Asia
5
Partnership for Sustainable Urban Transport In
Asia
  • Scope
  • Transport and environment in Asian cities,
    focusing on strengthening sustainability of
    low-emissions transport and mobility in Asian
    cities.
  • Goal
  • Contribute towards enhancing environmental
    sustainability of transport and mobility in Asian
    cities through developing and applying
    quantitative measures of sustainability and
    progress towards sustainability in a number of
    selected cities.
  • Purpose
  • Develop and discuss a conceptual approach of
    city-based sustainable transport planning
    relevant for Asia, by stimulating authorities to
    act!

6
Sustainable Transport Three Pillars and a Roof
Governance Sustainability Clear Laws Clearly
Enforced Maintain Progress During Political
Change Stability of Financial Support
  • Economic sustainability
  • innovation and efficiency
  • Signals to transport suppliers, level-playing
    field market opportunities in cities
  • Private and public operators financially
    sustainable
  • Environmental sustainability health of future
    citizens
  • No environmental problems left for future
    generations
  • Externalities internalized
  • Clear standards on equipment, fuels
  • Social sustainability
  • equity
  • Access for the poor, both genders, etc.
  • Heavy vehicles dont crowd out lighter (or non
    motorized )

7
What are Indicators of Sustainable
Transportation?
  • Indicators provide decision-makers with diagnosis
    of problems, quantification of cures, prognoses,
    evaluation,
  • Indicators portray compress large amounts of
    information into key trends in transport and
    environment, the state of the system, and the
    directions it is headed
  • Some indicators, such as air pollution indices,
    can be given every day or even every hour others
    are updated every few years
  • Indicators are used for descriptions, models,
    baseline measurement, scenario development, and
    evaluation of past measures
  • Indicators give decision makers basis for
    illustrating achievements
  • Indicators show what authorities can know and can
    do

Indicators Help Authorities to Good Policy
Choices and Monitoring those Choices
8
Main Categories of Indicators
  • Policy
  • Summarize key facts and trends or goals about
    transport and environmental sustainability,
  • Show rates of improvement (or worsening)
  • Appropriate for highest level policy makers
  • Predictive
  • Used to make policy indicators
  • Provide predictive or explanatory power for
    policy indicators
  • Used among experts or policy advisors
  • Background material
  • Raw data, measurements, survey results
  • Output of models
  • Used by experts to build predictive and policy
    indicators

9
Indicators of Sustainable Transport
  • Pollution/Air quality
  • Policy
  • Health risk/morbidity from pollution /exposure
  • Concentrations in air of mobile source pollution
  • Health costs/GDP
  • Emissions/km from vehicles
  • Current/proposed standards and policies
  • Predictive
  • Emissions coefficients and driving cycles
  • Number of vehicles and distance/vehicle
  • Verification
  • Socio-demographic and socio-economic variables
  • Congestion/Access
  • Policy
  • Time lost in traffic
  • Economic costs of congestion rel. to GDP
  • Proximity to rapid transport nodes
  • Modal splits by trips and distances
  • Predictive
  • Road hierarchy
  • Non-road transport infrastructure (rail, etc.)
  • Lane or road-km per vehicle and per sq.km of city
    space
  • Number of light duty vehicles
  • Accidents/Safety
  • Policy
  • Deaths or accidents per vehicle
  • Deaths or accidents per km driven or traveled
  • Accident Costs/GDP
  • Predictive
  • Engineering (seatbelts, safety devices, road
    barriers, etc)
  • Education (drier ed, drunken driving)
  • Enforcement (drunken driving, safety
    inspectionsspeed and other violations)

10
Examples Of Governance Indicators for Models,
Strategic Decision-making, and Evaluation
  • Access/Congestion
  • Traffic direction capability
  • Installation and use of traffic sensors and
    automated controls
  • Ability to shunt vehicles to alternative routes
  • Safety/Accidents
  • Basic road safety laws
  • Seat-belt, safety inspection, and drunk driving
    laws
  • Vehicle inspection requirements
  • Clean Air/Pollution
  • New vehicle emissions or fuel economy regulations
  • Ambient air quality standards (and monitoring),
    including authority to curtail traffic during
    extreme pollution events
  • Existing vehicle pollution laws, including remote
    sensing or inspections to find smokers and
    authority to remove them

11
Who Uses Which Indicators?
ENVIRONMENT and HEALTH
ACCESS
SAFETY
POLICY LEVEL INDICATORS
The Mayor or Minister
Weightings for policy purposes
PREDICTIVE/DESCRIPTIVE (Formula taking data Into
indicators)
Policy Advisors
Formula taking data into indicators
Governance Laws and Norms
The Depths Raw data, measurement survey
results, for specialists
Socio-economic, Demographic Drivers
COMPREHENSIVE DATA BASE
12
Ownership of Indicators and Supporting
Information
  • Identify the owners of information
  • Statistical Bureaus and other Govt. Agencies
  • Academics
  • Private Experts/Consultants
  • Analyze the relationships between owners of
    information
  • Sharing of information for indicators, including
    publication/display
  • Defining who pays (or would pay), who needs, who
    uses,
  • Provide integrated indicator data-base structure
    to house the information together
  • Emphasize sharing of information, accessibility
    of info
  • Transparency of methods
  • Clear plan for updating, expansion

Challenge Bring The Owners And Users Together
13
The Policy Process -From Indicators To Policy
Implementation
1) Diagnosis- Indicators measuring state of
system, trends
6) Marketing and Communicating - Using indicators
to tell success stories, explain failures.

2) Implementing the Cure- Using indictors to
chose technologies, policies by cost, performance
5) Rebalancing -Indicators measure new expected
outcomes after correction


3) Prognosis - Indicators measuring baseline,
expected outcome
4) Evaluation - indicators measure actual
situation after time vs. expected

Indicators Accountability in The Policy Process
14
Indicators How Accurate do they need to be?

Accuracy
COST
-
Existing 33 Improved 33 Sufficient for Action 33
Full Knowledge
15
Indicator Pyramids Hierarchy
High-Level Indicators
Technical Level
Detailed Data
16
Indicator Pyramids Example of Congestion
Time Lost in Congestion relative to total mobility
Flows of traffic, people distances and time
spent, constrained and unconstrained
Street by street traffic data at regular
intervals (speeds, flows, passengers) recent OD
survey data on trips by mode, purpose, distance,
speed, location
17
Example of Indicator Pyramid Total Mobility
(Passenger Kilometers)
Passenger Km, all modes
(?peoplekilometers) for each vehicle type, fuel
Vehicle Activity x people/vehicle by mode
Distance/person by mode from travel or O/D survey
18
Example of Use of IndicatorsVehicle Emissions
Inventory for sharper regulation
  • What information is required? How accurate?
  • How bad is the air? How rapidly is it getting
    worse?
  • How much do vehicles emit? How rapidly are total
    emissions rising?
  • Emissions coefficients from model defaults, other
    country measurements?
  • What are the options? How fast will they take
    effect?
  • What do different levels of emissions controls or
    clean fuels cost?
  • What are the real (i.e., measured) benefits, not
    just theoretical?
  • What experiments will verify information about
    costs and benefits?
  • Did we do the right thing? Can we fix mistakes?
  • How well did prediction become reality? Where
    were there mistakes?
  • When can the mayor announce success?

Step One is simple opening to Step Two Step
Three needs detailed measurements, surveys
19
CLEAN AIR FROM LOWER EMISSIONS FROM INDICATORS
TO IMPLEMENTATION
6) Marketing and Communicating Measure overall
impact of lower emissions coefficients as lower
total emissions relative to a base line in X years
1) Diagnosis- Emissions coefficients much higher
than either norms require or expected. Need wtd
avg driving distances to aggregate up to entire
stock and airshed.

.
2) Implementing the Cure- Use knowledge of fleet
(by age and distance driven) to decide which
vehicles emit the most, estimate costs of
reductions in emissions similarly for tightening
new vehicle standards
5) Rebalancing Able to pick out which
vehicles/fuels emissions have not improved
enough and act on that finding


4) Evaluation Measure real coefficients in a
sample of vehicles.
3) Prognosis Use vehicle stock and driving
distance evolution to estimate baseline with,
without improvements

20
Example of Indicator Pyramid Total Emissions of
Given Kind (CO2, NOx, )
Measure, borrow, or guess each parameter?
pollutant/km for all vehicles
(?emissions/kmkilometers) for each vehicle
type, fuel
Detailed Data survey of cars, driving, fuel use
and emissions coefficients, model of car fleet by
vintage, type, etc
21
Steps to Better Emissions Inventories
  • Step One (rough estimate) No measurements
  • Vehicle stock by type, fuel from reg. data
  • Estimated distances by veh. type, fuel
  • Emissions factors from model defaults, other
    country measurements?
  • Step Two Measurements
  • Active vehicle stock by type, fuel, age (as proxy
    for pollution control)
  • Dist./veh. by type, fuel, age from Lents-like
    survey, inquiries to operators Emissions
    coefficients from nearby city, small number of
    measurements
  • Final Step Measurements
  • Active vehicle stock by type, fuel, tech. from
    survey
  • Distance/vehicle by type, fuel, veh. age from
    large survey of users
  • Emissions coefficients from measurements of large
    numbers of vehicles reflecting real driving
    cycles

Step One is simple opening to Step Two Step
Three needs detailed measurements, surveys
22
Steps to More Accurate Inventories

Vehicles by type, fuel, age from reg.
Distance/vehicle from Lents-like
survey Emissions Coefficients from other city,
or limited testing
Accuracy
Vehicles by type, fuel from reg. data Assumed
distance/vehicle Default emissions coefficients
,
Vehicles by type, fuel,,age, tech from large
vehicle use survey Distance/vehicle by type,
fuel, age from vehicle-use survey Emissions
coefficients from large-scale measurement survey
-
Existing Improved, maybe OK? Sufficient for
Action
Lents (UC Riverside) survey, or insurance or
police data using odometers readings from
collisions, infractions
23
Transport Emissions in Bangalore 2000 Still
Valid?
Source Hans Oern, Contrans
24
PSUTA Overall Leadership
  • Lee Schipper, Ph.D. (EMBARQ)
  • Former senior scientist, Intl Energy Agency
  • 30 Years Experience energy/environment transport
  • Cornie Huizenga (ADB)
  • Head of Secretariat, Clean Air Initiative for
    Asian Cities
  • 15 years of experience in environment and
    development
  • Jeffrey Chen, EMBARQ Project Coordinator
    (Shanghai)
  • Transport engineer and project manager Toronto
  • Currently EMBARQ manager in Shanghai
  • Focal point for technical and administrative
    liaison with EMBARQ
  • Advised by City Mentors and Reference Group of
    Experts
  • Worldwide leaders in sustainable transport
  • Several based in Asia

25
City Officials and ExpertsManage and Execute
Project
  • City Leaders- Manage funds, designate grantee
  • Construction Management Commission, Xian
  • Dept. of Nat. Resources, Env. Housing, Hanoi
  • Bangalore(under discussion)
  • Focal Points in Each City (unofficial)
  • Xian Mao Zhongan, Urban Planning Bureau
  • Hanoi Phan Quynh Nhu, US AEP
  • Bangalore Puttanna Honaganahalli, ISEC
  • City Mentor work with City Partner Hands on
  • He Kebin, Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (Xian)
  • John Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico (Hanoi)
  • Bangalore(under discussion)

26
Key Steps in ProjectDirect Involvement of City
Partners in Bold
  • Survey of actual practices, plans, results and
    capacities in Asia cities
  • City work with mentors on TOR June-October 2004.
  • Review Workshop with partners, experts, Aug/Sept.
    2004
  • Expert meeting to develop concept Sustainable
    Urban Transport Strategy, September 2004
  • Results of city analysis presented within the
    cities in October November, 2004 and at BAQ
    2004 in December.
  • Strategic Framework for scaling up to larger
    number of cities presented and discussed at BAQ
    2004 with stakeholders, fundors.
  • Project Final Report and launching of follow-up
    projects in Spring 2005

27
Survey Of Existing Information On Sustainable
Transport In Asia
  • Carried out by Asian-based institution on a
    sub-grant basis
  • Critical skills knows Asian cities, their
    transport problems and the actors working on
    sustainable transport
  • Survey will include
  • Studies undertaken and reports written in Asian
    cities
  • Tools used to measure emissions, transport, etc.
  • Finished, on-going, or planned city-specific
    projects
  • Key institutes
  • Important experts and other human resources

28
City Based Case Studies
  • EMBARQ/ADB set up partnership with three selected
    cities in Asia, which will include
  • Joint TOR to define project scope, funding and
    funding match
  • Select organization to be responsible for
    collection and critical review of baseline data
  • Assessment and development of indicators
  • Review of institutional capacity for decision
    making
  • Framework for developing medium-term sustainable
    transport plan, with emphasis on using the
    indicators
  • EMBARQ/ADB provides sub-grant of approx 37K per
    city, to be matched by cities
  • Appointment of mentor for each city, and overall
    review board

29
City Based Case Studies
  • Joint TOR to define project scope, funding and
    funding match
  • Select organization to be responsible for work
  • Data collection and baseline analysis
  • Linking Sustainable Transport Plans to needed
    indicators
  • Assessment and development of indicators
  • Needs of leaders based on current transport
    vision, projects (ring road, BRT, etc.)
  • Assess existing data, improve at low cost
  • Implement longer-term plan for surveys, storage,
    display
  • Build medium-term ST Plan based on Indicators
  • Look beyond existing plan
  • Prepare to link to other cities efforts

Internal Presentation Late August in Hanoi Final
Reports November
30
Strategic Framework for Sustainable Transport in
Asian Cities
  • The Challenge
  • Scale efforts to large numbers of cities
  • Exploit common strand of problems and solutions
  • Quantitative Indicators Approach
  • Facilitates translation of experience and results
  • Permits evaluation of cost effectiveness of
    results
  • Approach
  • Brainstorming with leading stakeholders in the
    region
  • Draw on work in partner cities
  • Link to experience with founders, private sector

31
Indicators The Way Forward
  • Phase 1Brief Introduction to Cities and
    Collaboration Dec.- March 2004
  • Experts at BAQ Manila (Dec. 17-19 2003)
  • Principles- funding, participation, work plan,
    information sharing in City meeting
  • Framing with entire project, mentors, etc early
    May 2004 in Hanoi (?)
  • Phase 2 Build, Evaluate High Level Indicators
    Oriented to ST Goals
  • Statement of City Sustainable Transport
    priorities what knowledge is needed?
  • Definition of methodologies, desired accuracy,
    special cases by city
  • Harmonization, prioritization of EMBARQs, and
    others indicators
  • Phase 3 Primary Data Gathering (Spring- Summer
    2004)
  • Estimates from existing data and calculations
    based on new data
  • Link to policy options in each city, identify
    critical gaps blocking good decisions
  • Sketch City ST program with data and indicators
    needed for good choices and evaluation
  • Phase 4 Workshop and Brainstorming (Hanoi 30
    August 3 September)
  • Workshop Coordination and Review of Results to
    Date Discussions among partners and mentors
  • Brainstorming Strategic Framework for
    Sustainable Transport. with invited
  • Phase 4 Summary and Integration (Sept. 2004-Dec.
    2004)
  • City report Indicators for Sustainable
    Transport with results from the workshop
  • Integration of city results based on workshop
  • Presentation of results at BAQ 04, 6-8 December,
    Agra, India

32
The WRI Center for Transport and the
Environment 10 G Street, NE Suite 800 Washington
DC, 20002 embarq_at_wri.org
Visit our website http//www.cleanairnet.org/caia
sia Join the discussion in the CAI-Asia listserv
by sending a blank email to join-cai-asia_at_lists
.worldbank.org
Please visit us at http//www.embarq.org/sstp
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