Title: Alex%20Burns%20(aburns@swin.edu.au)
1Communication Futures
- Alex Burns (aburns_at_swin.edu.au)
- 20 April 2006
- Smart Internet Technology CRC
2Agenda
- Part 1 Communication Futures (CF)
- History
- Discourse Futures Studies (FS) and Applied
Foresight (AF) - Contexts and Frameworks
- Part 2 Methodologies
- Individual methodologies and practices
- Part 3 Applications
- Part 4 Professional Development
- Professional Development issues
3Part 1 Foundations
4Why Study The Future?
- Foreseeable Dangers and Mega-Events
- Challenger space shuttle disaster (Roger
Boisjoly) - Enron and corporate governance (Sherron Watkins)
- September 11 and counter-terrorism (John ONeill)
- Cassandra Archetype early warnings yet ignored
- ICT History and Future Visions
- J.C.R. Licklider and human-machine symbiosis
- Doug Engelbart and interface design (GUI)
- Ted Nelson and Xanadu
- Tim Berners-Lee and the Semantic Web
5Challenger Launch Decision
- Roger Boisjoly discovers leaks in primary seals.
Morton Thiokol pressure about O-ring warning
(Jan. 1986) - NASA and Morton Thiokol engineers discuss
temperature forecasts. NASA over-rides no
launch decision (27 Jan. 1986) - At T73 seconds Challenger explodeskilling all 7
crew members (28 Jan. 1986)
6Sherron Watkins Enron
- Warned Enrons Kenneth Lay of an elaborate
accounting hoax (15 Aug. 2001) - Enron files for Chapter 11 (2 Dec. 2001)
- Individual investors lose millions, Arthur
Andersen collapses - Corporate Governance and Triple Bottom Line (TBL)
- The Smartest Guys In The Room (2005) book and
film - A Conspiracy of Fools (2005)
7John ONeill Al Qaeda
- FBI began tracking Al Qaeda in mid-1990s
- Investigated first WTC (1993) and USS Cole (2000)
bombings - Warned US Government of global terror networks
- May have prevented September 11 terrorist attacks
on United States - PBS Frontline episode The Man Who Knew
8Anticipatory Not Predictive
- Futures Studies is popularly believed to be about
prediction - Retro-causal (what if?) rather than predictive
(this will happen by x) - The cause lies in the future Heinz von
Foerster - Future possibility space to consider
implications for now - Conjectural thinking about evaluated
possibilities (Bertrand de Jouvenal) - The sense of context to model different choices
(Mihai Nadin) our sixth sense (Kees van der
Heijden) - Epistemology (ways of knowing) becomes crucial
9Strategic Foresight and Futures Studies
- Strategic Foresight
- The ability to create and maintain a
high-quality, coherent, and viable forward view
whose insights can be used in organizationally
useful ways. (Richard Slaughter, Swinburne
University) - Critical Futures Studies
- The attempt to generate new knowledge about the
construction of human futures. (Richard
Slaughter, Swinburne University) - A type of transdisciplinary strategic thinking
rather than traditional strategic planning (links
with Governance and Knowledge Management) - Futures Studies is not crystal ball-gazing, pop
imagery or linear extrapolations - Goes beyond future of . . . studies and
single-point forecasts
10Futures Studies Introductory Examples
- The following are introduced early on in
Swinburne Universitys Strategic Foresight
program - The 200-Year Present (Elise Boulding)
- The Futures Cone possible, probable and
preferable futures - The Clock of the Long Now (Stewart Brand)
- The Calvert-Henderson indicators (Hazel
Henderson) - Tsunamis of Change (Jim Dator)
- Mindsets open versus closed thinking (Milton
Rokeach) - The sustainability ethic as an FS practical realm
11Futures Studies Key Texts
- The following are often used in Swinburne
Universitys Strategic Foresight program - Richard Slaughters Futures Beyond Dystopia
(2004) and Futures for the Third Millennium
(1999) - The multi-volume Knowledge Base of Futures
Studies (3rd edition on CD in 2005) edited by
Slaughter, Sohail Inyatullah Jose M. Ramos - Sohail Inayatullahs Questioning The Future (2nd
edition, 2005) - Peter Schwartzs The Art of the Long View (1991)
on scenarios - Peter Senges The Fifth Discipline (1990) on
systems thinking - Ken Wilbers A Theory of Everything (2001)
12Communication Futures Definition
- Interdisciplinary discourse to examine ICT
strategic landscape - A strategic context and problem domain that draws
on Futures Studies (theory) and Applied/Strategic
Foresight (application) - Places activities in forward-looking context
- Inputs to corporate strategy and policymaking
cycles - Major themes
- The evolution of socio-technical systems
- Technology trajectories and their social impacts
- Responses by societies, culture and political
actors
13Communication Futures Key Studies
- Influential CF Studies
- SIT CRCs Smart Internet 2010 report (2005)
- ACAs Vision 2020 scenarios exercise (2004)
- Networking the Nation (1997)
- Networking Australias Future (1994)
- Telecom Australias Telecom 2000 Report (1975)
- Policy Briefs (Communication Futures Futures
Studies) - DCITAs Digital Action Plan for Australia (2006)
- Communications Policy Research Forum
- Australian Treasurys Inter-generational Report
(2002-2003) - CSIRO National Energy Scenarios
14Technology Foresight
- Technology Foresight
- Domain application of national Science
Technology Foresight - Mobilisation for ICT sectoral development
- Builds collective vision and social imaging for
growth - Regional trade blocs and comparative advantage
(David Ricardo) - Battelle Science Technology
- Singapore Infocomm Foresight 2015
- Malaysia Multimedia Corridor
- OECD Foresight Forum
15Major Institutions
- Big Science Bell Laboratories, NASA space
program, Atlas rockets, ARPANET, Human Genome
Project - Defence and Civil Society Planning RAND and
Hudson Institutes (Herman Kahn on nuclear war
thinking about the unthinkable), Arlington
Institute, Institute for the Future, Global
Business Network - Technology Research Xerox PARC, MIT Media Lab,
ATT Labs, Microsoft Research, BT, Google Labs - Thomas P. Hughes Rescuing Cassandra (1998) as
key study - Stewart Brands The Media Lab (1987) on MITs
initiatives - Michael Hiltziks Dealers of Lightning (1999) on
Xerox PARC
16Contexts and Frameworks Overview
- Three introductory paradigms
- Normative pragmatic, goal-directed, conventional
planning - Critical evaluates agendas, norms, values and
worldviews - Emancipatory idealist and identity, oppositional
to normative - Three CF outlooks (Warren Wagar)
- Techno-liberal (libertarian and free
enterprise) - Radicals (Democratic Left and Social Marxist)
- Countercultural (New Age and Eco-feminist)
- Each gives a true but partial map of reality
(Ken Wilber) however, the map is not the
territory (Alfred Korzybski)
17Framework 1 Pragmatic Futures
- Dominant context in Western Futures Studies work
- The norm for business and commercial applications
- Timeframe 3-5 years
- Knowledge Interests Technical-Instrumental
- Discourses Methodologies Trends, Environmental
Scanning, Scenario Planning, Business
Intelligence - Example Book Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalads
Competing for the Future (1995)
18Framework 2 Progressive Futures
- Emerged in late 1960s and early 1970s in the West
- The norm for academic applications in
arts/humanities and post-normal science (Jerry
Ravetz) - Timeframe 20-50 years and longer
- Knowledge Interests Emancipatory
- Discourses Methodologies Critical Futures
Studies, Science Technology Studies,
Simulations, Systems Thinking - Example Book Hazel Hendersons Building A
Win-Win World Life Beyond Global Economic
Warfare (1996)
19Framework 3 Alternative Global Futures
- Emerged in late 1970s and 1980s in the West
- Anthropological, cross-cultural, post-colonial
and postmodernist - Timeframe 50-100 years and longer
- Knowledge Interests Emancipatory, Multitude
- Discourses Methodologies Causal Layered
Analysis, Anticipatory Action Research and
Anthroplogy, Post-Colonial Studies - Example Book Ziauddin Sardars Rescuing All Our
Futures The Future of Futures Studies anthology
(1999)
20Framework 4 Civilisational Futures
- Cyclical themes from 1960s to present
- Deals with civilisations, cultural scripts,
social imaging - Timeframe 100 years, cyclical/spiral models of
temporality - Knowledge Interests Deep Time, Gaian,
Macrohistorical, Dominator/Partnership paradigm
(Riane Eisler) - Discourses Methodologies Causal Layered
Analysis, Social Imaging, Macrohistorical, Peace
Studies, Deep Ecology - Example Book Johan Galtung and Sohail
Inayatullahs Macrohistory and Macrohistorians
(1997)
21Framework 4 Integral Futures
- Cyclical themes from 1960s to present
- Breadth and depth, different ways of knowing,
transcend yet include, All quadrants all levels
(AQAL) - Timeframe The extended Now
- Knowledge Interests Transpersonal, Integrative,
Pluralistic - Discourses Methodologies Transpersonal and
Integral Psychology, Integral Methodological
Pluralism, Metascanning, Contemplative/Meditative
practices - Example Book Ken Wilbers Sex Ecology
Spirituality (1995) and Integral Psychology (1998)
22Framework 5 Embodied Foresight
- Has emerged over 2003-2006 as novelty and
synthesis - Meta-methodology Individual practitioner as
holonomic - Timeframe Self-reflexive awareness of the
Aion/Aeon - Knowledge Interests Anticipatory, Enactive,
Self-Reflexive - Discourses Methodologies Anticipatory Action
Learning, Enactive Cognition, Integral Futures,
Self-Reflexive methods, Trialogues, Presence - Example Book Senge, Scharmer, Jaworski and
Flowers Presence Human Purpose and the Field of
the Future (2004)
23Part 2 Methodologies
24Methodology History
- 1950s Forecasts Trends Analysis
- 1960s Delphi Method Social Indicators
- 1970s Global Forecasts Systems Models
- 1980s Scenarios Risk Management
- 1990s Layered Depth Methods
- 2000s Integral, Multi-Civilizational Embodied
25Strategic Landscape
- Defined by critical uncertainties, compounded
risks and systemic crises (Ulrich Beck, Anthony
Giddens, Zygmunt Bauman, Arjun Appuradai) - Risk as defining factor in globalisation (Beck)
- Structuration model of agency-structure debate
(Giddens) - Liquid modernity and reconnaissance zones
(Bauman) - Socio-, techno- flows (Appuradai)
- Neo-liberal globalization, deregulation and
privatization - Information is bound up in uncertainty (Norbert
Wiener) - Knowns, known unknowns unknown unknowns
(Donald Rumsfeld on the 2003 Iraq War and WMD
debate) - Hardin Tibbs model of business insight and
competition
26Taxonomy of Futures Methods
- Predictive (expertise and colonization)
- Forecasting (linear/extrapolative), Trends,
Data-Mining, Simulations, Delphi Method, Social
Indicators, Inevitable Surprises (Ageing,
Demographics, the Realist tradition in
Geopolitics), Technology Mapping, Pattern
Recognition - Interpretative (agency, structure,
relationship) - Environmental Scanning, Scenarios
(technology/user), Technology Assessment,
Strategic Anticipation, National Science
Technology exercises, Business Intelligence,
Blind-Spot Analysis, Wild Cards (high impact low
probability events), Visioning - Critical (undefining the future by questioning
assumptions) - Causal Layered Analysis, Critical Futures
Studies, T-Cycle, Macrohistory, Integral Studies,
Action Learning
27Methodological Issues
- Futures Studies has a transdisciplinary knowledge
base - Potentially an infinite toolkit of resources
(Richard Slaughter) - Integral Methodological Pluralism as framework
(Ken Wilber) - The emergence of meta-methodologies
- Methodological renewal as an imperative
(Richard Slaughter) - Challenges
- Difference between method, methodology, process,
and practice - Role of commercial interests and secrecy
- Cultural transmission of methodologies between
practitioners - True Believer (Eric Hoffer) interpretation that
frames specific methodologies as the solution to
problem domain
28Creativity Techniques
- Problem domain application of Applied Foresight
- Synergies with humour, pattern recognition,
visualisation - Lateral Thinking, Six Thinking Hats, Po (Edward
de Bono) - Mind Mapping (Tony and Barry Buzan)
- Synectics (William J.J. Gordon)
- Brainstorming and Concept Mapping
- Multiple Intelligences (Howard Gardner)
- Flow states of optimal psychology (Mihaly
Csikzentmihalyi)
29Forecasting and Trends
- Forecasting developed in 1940s and 1950s
- Econometrics linear, extrapolative, time-series,
statistical - Trends developed in 1950s and 1960s
- 3-5 year time-span rather than fads
- Social Indicators movement in 1960s sociology
- Cross-impacts, social impacts
- Applications
- Demographic/psychographic profiling and
data-mining - SRIs Values and Lifestyles monitor (VALS II)
- John Naisbitts Megatrends (1982)
- Alvin Tofflers Future Shock (1970) and The Third
Wave (1980)
30Environmental Scanning
- Environmental Scanning developed in 1960s and
1970s - Links to business strategy, portfolio management,
competitive intelligence and media monitoring - Organisational ability to track external signals
and hits - Swinburne Foresight Planning Review (FPR)
- Established in 2000 to conduct university-wide ES
- 15 to 20-year timeframe long-term trends and
impacts - Maree Conway (www.universityfutures.org) was FPR
head - Major scenario planning exercise (2002) on higher
education - Prospect bulletin, scanning hits database and
workshops - Replaced by Strategic Planning and Quality (SPQ)
Unit in 2005 - Statement of Direction 2015 (Swinburne)
31Wild Cards
- High impact low probability events (i.e. deals
with blind-spots, warning signals) - Can be foreseen pre-September 11 intelligence
hearings - Surfaces blind-spots and assumptions in trends
analysis - Popularised by Arlington Institute and John
Petersens Out of the Blue (1999) - Links to Becks risk sociology, chaos/complexity
sciences, simulations and systems thinking - Used to test decision-making under stress and in
high-velocity environments (Cass R. Sunstein)
32Scenario Planning
- Different models in early 1960s, early 1970s and
1980s - Synonymous with Futures Studies and Visioning for
many - Key figures Herman Kahn, Pierre Wack, Peter
Schwartz - Popularised by the Global Business Network, Royal
Dutch Shells unit and Schwartzs Art of the Long
View (1991) - Extended by Art Kleiner, Stewart Brand and Jay
Ogilvy - Different traditions Prospective (France), ICT
Use Cases - Problems GBNs scenario logics deal with 2-3 key
factors, chaos/complexity models are a challenge,
groupthink (Irving Janis), mirroring, ethical
dimensions in application
33GBNs Scenario Planning Process
- 1. Identify the focal issue or decision
- 2. Identify key forces, trends and scanning
hits - 3. List the driving forces
- 4. Rank key factors driving forces by
importance and uncertainty (choose 2 or 3 that
will form 2x2 axis) - 5. Select scenario logics create axes for key
factors - 6. Flesh out the scenarios narratives
- 7. Explore implications, assumptions, blind-spots
- 8. Select leading indicators and signposts
34Causal Layered Analysis
- Developed by Sohail Inayatullah in the
early-to-mid 1990s - Post-structuralist theory of knowledge (Michel
Foucault, William Irwin Thompson, P.R. Sarkar,
Fred Polak and others) - Useful to surface hidden assumptions and
current frameworks - Can be used to evaluate and validate scenario
logics and narratives provides vertical depth
to horizontal tools - Four layers
- Pop litany, sound-bites, media imagery
- Social Causes problem-oriented analysis and
policy - Epistemes/Worldviews ways of knowing, truth and
values - Myth/Metaphor Deep symbols, narratives and
structures
35Simulations
- Developed with computers in 1960s and 1970s
- Jay Forresters work on systems dynamics as
pivotal influence - Donella and Dennis Meadows World-3 model in The
Limits To Growth (1972) created controversy for
The Club of Rome - Domain applications in econometric modelling,
environmental sustainability, financial services - Adopted by business for innovation and war games
- Michael Schrages Serious Play (2000) on
innovation cases - Videogame designers Will Wright (Sim City and
The Sims), Sid Meier (Civilization), Peter
Molyneux (Black White)
36Systems Thinking
- Deals with large-scale complexity, emergent
behaviour, interdependencies, whole-systems
views, cybernetics - Links with action learning and simulations
- Surfaces assumptions, mental models and
cause-effect relationships (balancing and
reinforcing loops) - Ludwig van Bertalanffys General Systems Thinking
(1968) - Popularised by Peter Senges The Fifth Discipline
(1990) which also dealt with action learning and
organisations - Systems archetypes such as overshoot and
collapse, shifting the burden, fixes that
fail, escalation, accidental adversaries and
Tragedy of the Commons
37Action Learning
- Has evolved from anthropology, cybernetics,
education - Adopted in MBA and postgraduate programs as
pedagogy - Concerned with learning how to learn and
knowledge transfer - Theory Action Review cycles (aka Kolb learning
loop) - Skills unconscious incompetence, conscious
incompetence and conscious competence (Argyris) - Key figures David Kolb, Donald Schon, Chris
Argyris, Humberto Maturana, Francisco Varela,
Peter Senge, Otto Scharmer - Enactive Cognition consciousness model (Maturana
Varela) All knowing is doing and all doing is
knowing
38Macrohistory
- Histories of social systems, patterns of change
(nomothetic, diachronic) individual, social,
civilisational, world-systems - Deep structure models of what changes and what
doesnt - Linear, cyclical and spiral metaphors/models of
temporality - Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullahs
Macrohistory and Macrohistorians (1997) compares
20 macrohistorians - Exploration of different cultural-historical
epistemes - Each can be used to isolate key variables for
discussion - Imposes limits on what can be created in the
future
39Part 3 Applications
40Yourdon, Edward. Death March (2nd ed.), Prentice
Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2003.
Death March projects The norm for IT not the
exception High-profile BHAG projects Budget,
resource estimation limits Unrealistic
deadlines by 2x or more Critical Chain and
Systems Thinking Project flight simulators
41Disruptive Technologies
- Professor at Harvard University and founder of
the consulting firm Innosight LLC - Thought leader on Disruptive Innovation
- Promoted by Intels Andrew S. Grove
- Author of The Innovators Dilemma (1999), The
Innovators Solution (2003), and Seeing Whats
Next (2004) - Focuses on industry and market analysis
- Disruptive vs. Sustaining Technologies
- Applies insights to e-health, financial services,
and telecommunications domains - Deals with firm resources allocation and
decision-making, not just killer app
technologies
42Pattern Recognition
- Mercers Adrian Slywotzky has collated over 20
generic patterns in Value Migration (1996),
Profit Patterns (1998) and subsequent books - Pattern Recognition and learning how to learn
- Business Designs a totality of customer
selection, market positioning, business processes
and profit capture - Challenges the idea that markets/industries are
caught in macro patterns such as
Disintermediation value networks are fluid,
signalling, counter-moves - Provides a context to integrate environmental
scanning and organisational learning - Applied in financial services as Strategic
Anticipation
43Augustine, Sanjiv. Managing Agile Projects,
Addison Wesley, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2005.
- Agile Project Management rules
- Organic Teams
- Guiding Vision
- Simple Rules
- Open Information
- Light Touch
- Adaptive Leadership
44Cockburn, Alistair. Crystal Clear, Addison
Wesley, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2005.
- A methodology for small teams
- Frequent Delivery
- Reflective Improvement
- Osmotic Communication
- Personal Safety
- Focus
- Easy Access to Expert Users
- A Technical Environment with Automated Tests,
Configuration Management, and Frequent Integration
45Part 4 Professional Development
46University Postgraduate Courses
- Postgraduate programs
- Swinburne University of Technology
- Sunshine Coast University
- Central Queensland University
- Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of
Sydney - Tamkang University (Taiwan)
- University of Houston, Clear Lake (US)
- Manoa school at University of Hawaii (US)
- Survey of Futures in Higher Education (2003) by
Jose M. Ramos (Swinburne University alumnus, WFSF)
47Professional Organisations
- Futures Studies has several professional
organisations - World Future Society (WFS) US-based, pragmatic,
technology, 50,000 members at peak in late 1980s - World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) diverse
global membership, critical/emancipatory and
civilisational, several hundred members - Association of Professional Futurists (APF)
US-based, spearheaded by Dows Andy Hines,
professional development - Swinburne Universitys AFI Alumni group
48Professional Models
- Professional certification in specific methods
- Proprietary-based, e.g. GBNs scenarios
methodology - European classical model of study with Teacher
- Access to domain experience and insights
- Often reflects the Critical/Emancipatory
tradition in FS - Medieval Guild model of professional development
- Closer to an artistic craft than an empirical
science - Novice, Journeyman and Master phases
- Links to Action and Self-Reflexive modes of
research
49Professional Qualities
- Communications Futures practitioners will
hopefully develop the following professional
qualities - Cognitive complexity and pattern recognition
- Insights grounded in both intellectual inquiry
and practice - Appreciative inquiry, multiple intelligences,
ways of knowing - Radical doubt and conscientization (Paulo Freire)
- Can deal with ambiguous information without
polarisation - Self-reflexive awareness of biases and
blind-spots - Awareness of the knowing-doing gap, groupthink,
mirroring
50Questions?