Understanding Enrollment and Population Trends

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Understanding Enrollment and Population Trends

• August 21, 2006
• Mesa Community College
• Office of Research Planning

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Western United States
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Western States Community College Enrollment Trends

• Based on state-level data from
• California
• Utah
• Washington
• Colorado
• New Mexico
• Texas

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Overall Western U.S.

• Despite overall population growth throughout the
  west, community colleges are experiencing flat or
  declining enrollment trends and projections.

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Contributing Factors

• Strong economy
• Low unemployment rate
• Impacts college attendance by non-traditional
  (older) students needing to re-train or
  re-career.
• Demographic changes
• Groups that are growing fastest have relatively
  low college participation rates among college-age
  population.
• Increasing tuition
• Higher tuition disproportionately impacts
  community college students who are struggling
  financially.

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Arizona Community Colleges

• 2004-05 / 2005-06 comparison data available for
  eight of the ten Arizona CC districts.
• - Enrollment down in 3 of 8 districts fall 2004
  to fall 2005
• - Enrollment down in 5 of 8 districts spring 2005
  to
• spring 2006
• Cochise
• Coconino
• Maricopa
• Navajo
• Pima

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Data provided by institutional research offices
not available from Graham and Mohave Counties
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AZ Same Contributing Factorsas other Western
States

• Strong economy and low unemployment
• in Phoenix/Mesa metro area 3.4 unemployment in
  May 2006, lower than both state (4.2) and
  national (4.6) rates
• Increasing tuition and loan rates
• Changing demographics
• Increasing competition and the ASU factor

Az. Department of Economic Security
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Population Growth Projections

• Continued population growth is projected for
  Arizona and for Maricopa County.
• Projected rate of growth for the East Valley
  slower than Maricopa County overall.

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County Population by Age Group 2000 Census

• AGE GROUPS
• Early Childhood lt 5
• School Age 5 17
• College Age 18 24
• Mid-Career 25 44
• Boomers 45 61
• Seniors 62

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MCC Students by Age Group and Regional Growth
Projections by Age Group
Source Claritas Inc. 2006, Marketing
Research Site Report Region represents the
geographic areas where most MCC students live.
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Hispanic Population

• The share of Hispanic students attending MCC rose
  from 12 to 17 in the last ten years.
• The Census 2000 distribution of the Hispanic
  population is depicted on the following map.

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Hispanic Projections

• The Hispanic population in the MCC service areas
  is projected to grow at three times the rate of
  the overall population.
• Hispanic population in MCC service areas
• 19 in 2000
• 24 in 2006
• 28 by 2011 (projected)

Sources Claritas Inc. 2006, Marketing Research
Site Report, and 2000 U.S. Census
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MCC Headcount/FTSE Trends

• MCC headcount and FTSE declined in 2005-06 from
  prior year (2004-05)
• Is it a trend or a blip?
• Long-term perspective since 1980, five cycles
  of headcount and FTSE decline amid steady overall
  growth.

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Full Time Student Equivalent (FTSE) 45th-Day
Fall 1980 Fall 2005
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MCC Trends Continued

• The composition of the student population is
  changing.
• There are decreases in older students and
  students attending for career-related reasons or
  personal interest.
• The strong local economy may influence this trend
  and is predicted to continue into the future.

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MCC Trends Continued

• Younger students, transfer students and Hispanic
  students are increasing.
• People over age 45 comprise 8 of MCCs student
  body. This is projected to be the fastest growing
  age group in the region 16 in next 5 years.
• People of college age (18-24) comprise 58 of
  MCCs student body. This age group is projected
  to grow more slowly in the region about 9 in
  next 5 years.

Source Claritas Inc. 2006, Marketing Research
Site Report
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QuestionHow does this informationinfluence
MCCs strategic planning, enrollment management,
program development, and marketing?
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Find this presentation on the ORP website

• http//www.mc.maricopa.edu/about/orp/
• Click on planning, then click on environmental
  scanning.