Murder on the Orient Express A mystery of Modern Man

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Murder on the Orient ExpressA mystery of Modern
Man

• Prof. Aldwyn Cooper
• ALT Meeting
• Reading
• 27th October 2005

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Clarke's First Law
When a distinguished but elderly scientist
states that something is possible, he is almost
certainly right.

• When he states that something is impossible, he
  is very probably wrong.
• Arthur C. Clarke

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• Introducing the Cast
• The Urgent Call
• The Commotion in the night
• Examining the Corpse
• Stuck in the snowdrift
• Breaking Free
• An unscheduled stop
• Using the Little Grey Cells
• Safe Arrival

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Original Film Cast Original Film Cast Original Film Cast
Hercule Poirot .... Albert Finney
Mrs. Hubbard .... Lauren Bacall
Signor Bianchi .... Martin Balsam
Greta Ohlsson .... Ingrid Bergman
Countess Andrenyi .... Jacqueline Bisset
Pierre Paul Michel .... Jean-Pierre Cassel
Colonel Arbuthnot .... Sean Connery
Mr. Beddoes .... John Gielgud
Princess Dragomiroff .... Wendy Hiller
Hector MacQueen .... Anthony Perkins
Mary Debenham .... Vanessa Redgrave
Hildegarde .... Rachel Roberts
Mr. Ratchett .... Richard Widmark
Count Andrenyi .... Michael York
Mr. Hardman .... Colin Blakely
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ALT Cast ALT Cast ALT Cast
Hercule Poirot .... ?
Mrs. Hubbard .... Diana Laurillard
Signor Bianchi .... MLE software suppliers
Greta Ohlsson .... Student Services
Countess Andrenyi .... Carol Twigg
Pierre Paul Michel .... Web geeks
Colonel Arbuthnot .... Bruxelles
Mr. Beddoes .... The UKeU
Princess Dragomiroff .... The Educational Establishment
Hector MacQueen .... Matthew Pitinsky
Mary Debenham .... DfEE
Hildegarde .... Ruth Kelly
Mr. Ratchett .... International HE Markets
Count Andrenyi .... Curtis Bonk
Mr. Hardman .... Colin Blakely
Robert Reich
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The Urgent Call

• It doesnt matter whether you are in a
  developed or developing nation, the drivers of
  the future are
• Globalisation
• Demographics
• Technology
• A nations wealth is its people and the respect
  that is shown by and to them.
• Prof. Robert Reich, Brandeis University and UC
  Berkeley Secretary for Labor to Clinton
  Administration

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Globalisation

• The Poverty of Protectionism
• The Importance of Internationalisation
• The Increasing value of research and education
• The Educational Export Market Models
• Internationalisation - a Backlash ?
• Economic Drivers

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Demographics

• Shift in World populations
• Increased economic pressures
• Developed nation baby boomers
• The age imbalance black hole
• Growing Teacher Shortage worldwide

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Technology

• Technology is an irresistible driver
• Technology is an enabler
• e-Education offers options for efficiency gains,
  real learner support and customer care
• Content Management
• Disaggregated systems

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The Commotion in the Night
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New technologyThe Current Reality

• There has been no real productivity growth
  acceleration in the 99 percent of the US
  economy located outside the sector which
  manufactures computer hardware................
  Indeed, far from exhibiting a productivity
  acceleration, the productivity slowdown in
  manufacturing has gotten worse when computers
  are stripped out of the durable manufacturing
  sector, there has been a further productivity
  slowdown in durable manufacturing in 1995-00 as
  compared to 1972- 95, and no acceleration at all
  in non-durable manufacturing.

Beyond the Digital Economy Conceicao, Gibson,
Heitor Sirilli
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Being Digital or Being Wise

• The concepts of knowledge economy and
  knowledge worker are based on the view that
  information and knowledge are at the centre of
  economic growth and development. The ability to
  produce and use information effectively is thus a
  vital source of skills for many individuals.
• OECD 2000.

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Being Digital or Being Wise

• Much attention has been devoted to digital
  technologies, a more fundamental change at the
  start of the new millennium is the increasing
  importance of knowledge for economic prosperity
  and the emergence of a learning society.
• Technological Forecasting Social Change
• Conceição et al. (2001),

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Growth in the KBI sector

• Knowledge-based industries include high level
  services and the high and medium-high technology
  manufacturing sectors, the gradual transition
  towards knowledge-based economies has intensified
  in the last part of the 20th century.
• According to the OECD more than 50 of the OECD
  countries GDP is associated with knowledge-based
  industries. It is asserted that the intensity of
  the acceleration of knowledge creation and
  diffusion requires a more dynamic
  characterization and that we should speak about
  the emergence of a learning society.

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UK Knowledge Industry growth
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Global Knowledge Need

• Education
• Environment
• Energy
• Electronics
• Engineering

• Media
• Medicine
• Management
• Agriculture
• Biotechnology

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Identifying Priorities

• Fundamentally, for a real learning economy, the
  performance of knowledge-rich competitive
  environments depend on the quality of human
  resources (their skills, competencies, education
  level, learning capability) and on the activities
  that exploit the generation and diffusion of
  knowledge. In a context of globalization, the
  development of research and education agendas on
  technology policy , the management of innovation
  and communication of knowledge are critical.

Beyond the Digital Economy Conceicao, Gibson,
Heitor Sirilli
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World Investment in Higher Education
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Examining the Corpse
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Status Quo - present trends continue

• Polarisation between HE systems with a divergence
  between Anglo Saxon systems (increasingly global)
  and others.
• World skills continue to be most important policy
  approaches in transnational education but revenue
  generating approaches continue to gain in
  importance.
• National system of quality assurance,
  accreditation and recognition of qualification
  and immigration policies will play a leading role
  in regulating international mobility. Trade
  agreements will play a secondary role.

Very Unlikely
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Three Globalisation Scenarios

• The Competition Scenario
• The South Africa Scenario
• The Backlash Scenario

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The Competition Scenario

• US regains ground and organises effectively
• Australia and New Zealand continue their rise
• New international entrants offer low cost access
  including Russia, India and China
• Additional private sector supply including
  University of Phoenix, Laureate, Career Education
  Corporation
• New entrants to the FE and HE market

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The South Africa Scenario

• Pre 2000, unrestrained foreign and private
  activity
• Climate of suspicion and profiteering
• Imposition of branch model and anti franchising
• Foreign provider numbers fell drastically
• Regulatory tightening
• Rising domestic supplier and export
• League table laws.

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The Backlash Scenario

• Rising UK domestic fees
• Demand exceeds supply
• Value for money concerns
• Domestic HEIs increase quality supply
• Governments concerned at skill loss
• Perception that non UK students favoured for
  financial reasons
• Foreign students object to ghettoes

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New Competition

• Competition from HE in emerging countries will
  grow China and India might become major first
  providers of transnational education.
• Student mobility to OECD countries becomes
  increasingly elitist.
• Slower growth in cross border mobility of
  students to OECD countries but increased mobility
  of academic staff, programmes and providers.
• Trade agreements play an important role in
  regulating transnational higher education.
• It become increasingly difficult for Western
  governments to regulate their HE systems as they
  become increasingly independent of state funding.

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Stuck in the Snowdrift
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Ive seen the past and it worked!

• National Development Programme in Computer
  assisted learning (1973 77)
• Manpower Services commission Tech project
  (1980s)
• Development of European Learning Through
  Technological Advance (DELTA 1988 - 2000)

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Ive seen the past and it worked!
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Clarke's Prediction About Fanatics!

• Fanatics are always followed by fools, of which
  there is an inexhaustible supply.
• John D. Clarke

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Breaking free
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The Pressures of the Present

• Technology
• Expectations
• Efficiency
• Exigency
• Economics

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Ive seen the future and it works!
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www.obhe.ac.uk
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An Unscheduled Stop
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Safe Arrival
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Developing competitive advantage
Competitive Innovative Potential
Majority of UK provision still here.
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Strategic Approach
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Use the little grey cells !
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Time for revolution

• This is not change, it is paradigm shift.
• T.S. Kuhn has shown that when scientific
  paradigms can no longer support the evidence a
  revolution takes place.
• Revolutions are slow to build but then are swift
  and savage.
• Strength alone is not enough - teamwork and
  knowledge of the terrain is paramount.
• Only the bold and fleet of foot will survive.

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Clarks Fourth Law

• Every revolutionary idea passes through three
  stages of reaction
• 1. It is completely impossible. Don't waste my
  time.
• 2. It is possible, but not worth doing.
• 3. I said it was a good idea all along.
• Arthur C. Clarke

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Fear of the future
Failures of imagination Failures of
courage Arthur C. Clarke
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Murder on the Orient ExpressA mystery of Modern
ManEND