Geography and Demographics

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Geography and Demographics

• 6 republics Slovenia, Croatia,
  Bosnia-Herzegovinia, Serbia, Montenegro,
  Macedonia
• 2 autonomous regions in Serbia Vojvodina and
  Kosovo

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Geography and Demographics

• Many ethnic groups Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, etc.
• Serbs largest in country, but not majority
• Complications boundaries of ethnic groups not
  the same as boundaries of republics!

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Geography and Demographics
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Geography and Demographics
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Ancient History

• Prior to WWI Area dominated by Austro-Hungarian
  (in NW) and Ottoman (in SE) Empires.
• No history of fighting, groups not enemies.

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First Yugoslav State

• Formed at the end of WWI.
• Marriage of convenience, entered into willingly
  by all parties.

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First Yugoslav State

• BIG challenges
• Economic
• Political what would this new state look like?
• Serbs wanted strong, centralized state to
  protect Serb minority populations in other
  regions.
• Others wanted decentralized state to protect
  against Serb domination.

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First Yugoslav State

• Solution a strong, centralized state
• Serb preferences won out (this time).
• Other groups not happy, but try to work together
  to iron out problems.

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WWII

• Hitler invades Yugoslavia in 1941
• Installs puppet regimes in Serbia and Croatia.
• Croat state (Ustasha) cleanse Croatia of Serbs.
• Serb paramilitaries (Chetniks) organize and fight
  Ustasha.
• Horrific fighting, bitter memories. Irony
  Ustasha not popularly chosen.

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WWII

• Tito and the Partisans
• Communists.
• Integrating force.
• Fought with Allies
• Fought civil war against Ustasha and Chetniks
• Won, took power at close of WWII

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Titos Yugoslavia

• Inherited a tough situation
• Economic devastation
• Bitter memories of civil war
• Demographic snake pit what to do about Serbia?

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Titos Yugoslavia

• Use the CP as an integrating force.
• Promote ideology of growth and development.
• Stomp out nationalism.
• Rely on personal popularity and charisma.

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Titos Yugoslavia

• Give republics autonomy over own affairs, veto
  power over central decisions.
• Make Vojvodina and Kosovo autonomous regions,
  give them veto power also.
• Consociationalism keep the power of the largest
  group (Serbs) in check.

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Titos Yugoslavia

• Happy Days
• Country experienced economic growth into the
  1970s.
• Peace!
• But costs of stifling alternative political
  voices, vacuum when Tito died.

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Post-Tito

• 1980s Economic slowdown
• CP bureaucrats paralyzed by crisis
• What was good for one region was bad for another.
• Regions used veto in Federal Presidency to block
  any policy that hurt them.
• Stalemate!

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Post Tito

• Political crisis also
• Serbian leaders unhappy about status of Kosovo
  and Vojvodina.
• Tried to address problem legally, but were
  blocked by veto power of other republics.
• Deadlock!

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Moves by Serbia

• Serb politicians look for way around the
  deadlock appeal to Serb grievances in Kosovo.
• Serbs a minority in Kosovo (largely for economic
  reasons).
• Kosovo historical significance to Serbs.
• Politicians Serbs are being run out of their
  homeland! (exaggerated claim, but effective).

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Moves by Serbia

• Enter Slobodan Milosevic
• 1988 President of Serbia, Ivan Stambolic, sends
  Milosevic to Kosovo to hear out the complaints of
  the Kosovo Serbs
• Was supposed to stick to CP anti-nationalist line.

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Moves by Serbia

• Instead, took the side of the nationalists.
• Famous words, addressing crowd
• You will not be beaten again.

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Moves by Serbia

• Rallies for Truth
• Orchestrated by politicians
• Demanded end of autonomy of Vijvodina and Kosovo
• Dramatized situation of Serbs in Kosovo
• Non-Serb leaders continue to refuse to negotiate
  with Milosevic.

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Moves by Serbia

• Milosevic topples leaders in Vojvodina, Kosovo,
  and Montenegro, installs men loyal to him.
• Radical effect on balance of power in Yugoslavia
  Milosevic now controls 4 out of 8 votes in the
  Federal Presidency.

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Response of Slovenia and Croatia

• Leaders of Slovenia and Croatia very nervous, set
  about trying to weaken the federal authority of
  Yugoslav state.
• Slovenia
• Backed Albanian resistance in Kosovo
• Refused to allow rally for truth
• Pulled out of Yugoslav CP

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Response of Slovenia and Croatia

• Croatia
• At first try to broker compromise, preserve
  Yugoslavia
• Strategy changed abruptly with election of Franjo
  Tudjman in May 1990.

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Response of Slovenia and Croatia

• Tudjman and cronies provocative nationalists.
• Checkerboard flag.
• Serbs secondary minority status.
• Talked big about taking Croatia out of
  Yugoslavia.

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Escalation

• Serb minority in Croatia scared. Fears played
  up by Serb politicians.
• Summer 1990 Serbs in Krajina (area of Croatia)
  armed themselves and declared self-rule.
• Tudjman formed own paramilitaries

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Escalation

• June 1991 Slovenia and Croatia declare
  independence.
• Serbia lets Slovenia go without fight.

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Escalation

• Not so Croatia. Serbia, plus Yugoslav National
  Army (JNA), fight to keep it in.
• Large-scale war erupts in Croatia. Fighting
  spread from there to Bosnia.

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Implications for Ethnicity Theories

• Contrary to expectations of Primordialism, war in
  Yugoslavia not the result of ancient hatreds.
  Peace, not conflict, was norm.
• And yet, the population responded quickly and
  emotionally to the provocations of politicians.
  Ethnicity was a hot button. Hard for
  instrumentalism to explain why.

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Implications for Conflict Theories

• Yes, grievances existed. However, they were
  nothing new. Why did they suddenly flower into
  conflict? Societal explanations important, but
  insufficient.

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Implications for Conflict Theories

• Politicians played a critical role whipped up
  emotions, initiated conflict.
• At national level, change in political leadership
  important Tito suppressed nationalism, his
  successors encouraged it.

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Implications for Conflict Theories

• But also key the weakness of the Yugoslav state
  after Tito.
• Communist Party unable to cope with challenges.
• Veto power of republics gt deadlock.
• State unable to contain nationalist politicians,
  gave them critical window of opportunity.