Aryan Brotherhood, the Order, White Aryan Nation. Ethno-nationalist/Separatists ... Tamil Tigers, Chechens, ETA, IRA, PKK. COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER. at West Point ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
1 Terrorism in the 21st Century An Introduction 2 DoD Disclaimer Notes - The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the position of the United States Military Academy the Department of the Army or the Department of Defense. 3 Understanding the Strategy
NATO definition of terrorism
The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence against individuals or property in an attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or societies to achieve political religious or ideological objectives
Sun Tzu
Know yourself
Know your allies
Know your enemy
4 Sun Tzu Know Your Enemy
What motivates terrorists
How does someone become a suicide bomber
What do these people want
What are they capable of
How do they view this struggle
You have to be lucky everyday We only have to be lucky once - IRA Bomber
5
Key Terms
Vision
Power
Belief
Strategy
Tactic
Duty
Shame
Freedom fighter
Self-sacrifice
AB95-5.PPT // 6
Key Terms
Vision Shape the future
Power to achieve the vision
Belief in a higher cause
Strategy to compel coerce etc.
Tactic bombing assassination etc.
Duty to the cause to family to God
Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice
Freedom fighter must kill to secure freedom ()
Self-sacrifice to be killed in the service of a higher cause is heroic
Popular support usually along ethnic/racial lines.
Examples
Tamil Tigers Chechens ETA IRA PKK
11 Religious terrorists
Belief in a struggle of good vs evil
Acting along desires of a diety target is thus not necessarily human
Feel unconstrained by law higher calling
Complete alienation from existing socio/political order
Support may be diffuse
Examples
al Qaeda Hizballah Hamas Jemaah Islamiyah Christian Militia Aum Shinrikyo Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade Amal Lehi Irgun
12 State Terrorism
Governments can engage in acts of terrorism
Examples
Iraq Saddam Hussein deployed chemical weapons in Kurdish villages killing thousands
Intent was to frighten other villages into stopping their political revolt
It worked
13 State-Sponsored Terrorism
Governments can also support terrorist groups that do their bidding
Examples
Iran which supports Hizballah
Before 9/11 Hizballah had killed more Americans than any other terror group
Embassy bombings kidnappings targeted assassinations suicide attack on Marine barracks at Beirut airport
14 Marine Barracks Beirut Lebanon23 October 1983
241 Dead
105 Injured
15 A Brief History of Modern Terrorism
Roughly 130-year history
4 Waves each roughly 40-45 years
Anarchist Wave
Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave
New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment
Religious Inspiration Wave
Issue to consider for each wave
Doctrines of terror
Technology (especially for communication/propogand a)
Avenues of funding and support
16 Terrorism as Strategy
Terrorism as means to achieve goals and objectives
Strategic goals include
Political change (e.g. overthrow govt. drive out occupiers etc.)
Social change (e.g. France headscarf ban)
Economic change (e.g. stop resource export)
Religious change (e.g. fundamentalism)
Overall goal create a better world
17 Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism
Recognition Gaining national or international recognition for their cause recruiting new personnel raising funds demonstrating their strength
Coercion Force a desired behavior of an individual or government
Intimidation Prevent individuals groups or governments from acting
Provocation Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on symbolic targets or personnel thereby gaining sympathy for their cause.
Insurgency support Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing with the threat thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit further attacks against the government.
18 New York World Trade CenterFebruary 26 19936 Dead 1042 Injured Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building 19 April 1995168 Dead 490 Injured 19 Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan 1994 1995 Matsumoto JapanMarch 1994 7 Dead 34 Injured Tokyo JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20 199512 Dead 5000 Injured Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by inhalation ingestion and through the eyes and skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes drooling and excessive sweating and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing dimness of vision nausea vomiting twitching and headache. Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms. 20 Khobar Towers - Dhahran Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996
19 Dead
240 Injured
21 American Embassy Bombings Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans Kenyans and Tanzanians deadOver 5000 injured 22 1999 LAX Attack Plan 23 The Strategy of Terrorism
Increasing interest in soft targets (economically strategic impact and less protected) such as
pubs in Northern Ireland London UK
open markets cafes in Israel
international airport Sri Lanka
bus in Manila the Philippines
shopping mall in southern Philippines
nightclub in Bali Indonesia
banks in Istanbul Turkey
hotel in Jakarta Indonesia
nightclub in Berlin Germany
and of course . . .
24 New York City Washington DCSeptember 11 2001 2973 Dead and 10000 Injured 25 Modern Trends in Global Terrorism
More violent attacks (increasing lethality)
Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate smart bomb)
26 Karachi PakistanMay 8 2002 June 14 2002 Attack on U.S. Consulate Bus attack 14 Dead including11 French engineers 12 Dead50 Injured 27 Bali IndonesiaOctober 12 2002 202 Dead350 Injured Citizens from 21 countries mostly Western tourists were killed in the blasts 28 Casablanca MoroccoMay 17 2003 44 Dead107 Injured 29 Jakarta IndonesiaAugust 5 2003 12 Dead60 Injured J.W. Marriott Hotel Jakarta 30 Riyadh Saudi ArabiaNovember 8 2003 April 21 2004 Attack on Security Services Headquarters 3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex 4 Dead148 Injured 17 Dead122 Injured 31 Istanbul TurkeyNovember 20 2003 27 Dead400 Injured Primary Targets British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters 32 Madrid SpainMarch 11 2004 191 Dead1035 Injured 33 Jakarta IndonesiaSeptember 9 2004 9 Dead173 Injured Australian Embassy was primary target 34 London UKJuly 7 2005 54 Dead716 Injured 35 Strategy and Recruitment
Terrorism is an individuals strategic choice most often driven by a combination of
Intense grievances
Sense of crisis
Address a power imbalance - empower the disenfranchised
The ties that bind training camps extended family social networks trusted networks key
Combination of ideology and psychology
No constraints re geography organizational affiliation etc.
36 Modern Terrorism and Recruitment
Overall goal create a better world
Powerful message for recruitment . . .
Video 1
Video 2
Video 3
Video 4
Video 5
Jihad 37 Strategy and Training 38 Strategy and Training
Establish training camps developing the will to kill and the skill to kill
Operational space Geographic isolation
Teachers Experts in relevant knowledge e.g. military combat experience
Committed learners
Time money and basic necessities
Afghanistan
Algeria
Bosnia
Chechnya
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Kashmir
Lebanon
Libya
Northern Ireland
Peru
The Philippines
Somalia
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Syria
Turkey
United States
Uzbekistan
39 Strategy and Training
Psychological dimensions
Moral disengagement
Displacement of responsibility
Disregard for/distortion of consequences
Dehumanization
Moral justification
Group power over behavior personal decisions
Preparation for martyrdom
40 Suicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy 41 To be distinguished from Definition of Suicide Terrorism Intentionally killing oneself for the purpose of killing others in the service of a political or ideological goal
High-risk missions w/out suicide as main intent
Fooled couriers
Suicide without homicide for a political cause
42 Suicide Terrorism Who
Perception
Generalized profile of suicide terrorists including
Young
Single
Male
Uneducated
Religious fanatics
Reality
The profile is wrong
Suicide terrorists are
Preteen - mid-sixties
Both single and married with families
Both male and female
Both educated and uneducated
Not motivated by religious fanaticism
Worlds leader in suicide terror are Hindu Tamil Tigers who are conducting insurgency against Sri Lanka
43 Trends Most deadly form of terrorism (so far)
Israel 0.5 of attacks 56 of fatalities.
U.S. 9/11 10 times more deadly than any previous terrorist attack in history.
Hizballah Lebanon
1981 attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut
1983 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut
1983 attack on the Marines sleeping in barracks at the Beirut airport (241 killed)
Also suicide attacks typically get more media coverage more strategic communications effect
44 Trends 1980s - Lebanon - Kuwait - Sri Lanka 45 Trends 1990-2005 - Israel - India - Pakistan - Yemen - Algeria - Chechnya - Kenya - Tanzania - Panama - Argentina - Croatia - Australia - Turkey - Russia - Morocco - Indonesia - Saudi Arabia - Afghanistan - Indonesia - Spain - U.K. - U.S. 46 (No Transcript) 47 Suicide Terrorism Why 48 Marine Barracks Beirut Lebanon23 October 1983 We couldnt stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines. -- Ronald Reagan An American Life
241 Dead
105 Injured
49 Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective
Suicide attacks work because they have a different structure
With suicide terrorism model the weaker acts as coercer and the stronger actor is the target
Key difference
Target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust to minimize future damage
50 Questions
51
52 Terrorism CT
Backups
53 1) Anarchist Wave
Roughly 1880s to 1920s
Examples
Assassinations of Pres. McKinley Spanish Prime Minister etc.
Doctrines
Nechaevs Revolutionary Catechism Bakunin Kropotkins propaganda by the deed words are not enough . . .
Technology
communication and transportation patterns telegraph daily newspapers railroads technology shrank time and space
weapons mostly guns and knives but invention of dynamite helped launch new terrorist capabilities
Financing
Bank robberies extortion etc.
54 The Terrorists Perspective
For one thing al Qaedas leaders believes that they have been tested by two superpowers (Soviets and Americans) they defeated the first and survived the second despite overwhelming military force thus both are considered victories
Globally members of this global religious-inspired insurgency believe this is an epic struggle that will likely take place beyond the current generation of fighters
In Iraq terrorists are developing a new cult of the insurgent by demonstrating how they not the once-feared Saddam Husseins military can inflict pain and suffering on the mighty U.S. (and coalition) forces
Rationale for terrorism perceived as only available means by which to achieve strategic goal
55 Anarchist Wave
Tsar Alexander II (1861) frees the serfs (1/3 of Russias population) and promises funds for them to use to buy land
Unable to provide those funds raised expectations lead to widespread anger disappointment unrest violence assassinations
Terrorists seeking to provoke state to the point where the reaction leads to popular revolt
Anarchists seldom successful but there are exceptions
Tsarist Russia Narodnaya Volya (peoples will)
Serbia Narodna Obrana (splinter Black Hand)
Response of several governments was to create plain-clothes police forces (FBI Scotland Yard Russian Okhrana etc.) most are still in action today
1919 President Wilson authorizes round up of all Anarchists ship to Soviet Union
1920 bombing of Wall Street
56 2) Anti-Colonial Wave
Circa 1920s 1960s
Examples
Irgun (precursor to Lehi) the Stern Gang Zionist extremism
South Africa
Vietnam
Algeria
Doctrines
Freedom for indigenous peoples to decide own system structure
Anti-racism imperialism fewer assassinations then previous wave attacks mainly on police military colonial govt. targets
Technology
Faster means of communication transportation money transfer
Financing
Diaspora support particular from immigrants to developed Western countries
57 3) New Left Wave
Circa 1960s 1990s
Examples
Italian Red Brigades
ETA (Spain France)
LTTE (Sri Lanka)
PLO (Middle East)
West German RAF (Baader-Meinhof Gang)
Japanese Red Army
American Weather Underground
Peru (Sendero Luminoso)
New Doctrines strategies for political change Marxism separatism - Carlos Marighella Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla
Technology
Global sharing of new timing devices other trigger switches for explosives
Airplane hijackings
58 New Left Wave
Built on widespread anti-Western political undercurrent throughout former European colonies as well as sentiments within Europe
Supported by Vietnam experience
Vietcong David defeats Goliath idea fuels other groups around the world
Anti-Western political movements encouraged by Soviets Iran Libya N. Korea
Of course this came back to bite the Soviets . . .
Afghanistan
Chechnya
59 The Troubles
IRA Anti-colonial New Left or something else
Began the struggle during the 1920s
Provisional IRA formed 1969 ceasefire 1997
Real IRA bombings as recent as 2003
Loyalists vs. Republicans and Protestants vs. Catholics
Jackson case study of PIRA
Political contexts for local support of terrorism (policy economics)
Description of the terrorists tactics strategies innovations
Targeting (e.g. mortar attack on 10 Downing street) own goals
Transition in organizational structure why
Description of the British counterterrorism measures taken
Organizational/strategic learning evolution
Successes or failures Effectiveness in producing political change
60 4) Religious Inspiration Wave
Current wave of terrorism
Religious Cults (e.g. Aum Shinrikyo)
Christian extremists
Islamist extremists Jihad
Iran 1979 revolution
Afghanistan 1980s Jihad to oust the Soviets
Iraq 2003- Jihad to oust the Americans
Doctrines
Fatwas against the West oust them from holy lands late 1990s shift from near enemy to far enemy
Technology
Increasing sophistication of IEDs
Use of ultimate smart bomb (suicide terrorists)
Weapons of Mass Disruption
61 Religious Inspiration Wave Islamic Extremism
Islam is fastest growing religion in U.S. elsewhere estimated over 1.2 billion followers worldwide.
More than a religion a system of laws courts traditions customs etc. to govern all aspects of life
Islam is the answer Muslim Brotherhood
Difference in relationship w/God
Lack of formal hierarchy (no Pope)
Sunni-Shia split Shiites reject the truth held by Sunnis
62 History Discussion Questions
Why do people resort to violence in pursuit of political or ideological ends
Political contexts
Social contexts
Other options to achieve goals
Implications for government policy
63 History Discussion Questions
What motivates terrorists
Vision - shape the future
Power to achieve vision
Belief in higher cause
What else
What role do economics psychology sociology or other grievances play in motivating terrorist groups
Question Once we understand the threat how do we address it
Answer We employ all the instruments of national power available to us.
Military
Intelligence
Diplomacy
Legal
Information
Financial
Economic
Case studies of groups and events help us learn about each of these dimensions
66 Intelligence Learn from our own mistakes
We assumed simultaneous 9/11 attacks in U.S. were beyond the capabilities of terrorists
Overestimated the significance of past successes the terrorists own incompetence
Attention was focused exclusively on opposite ends of the terrorist technological spectrum
Believed terrorists were still interested in publicity and not killing
67 Elements of the National CT Strategy
4 Ds
Defeat terrorist organizations of a global reach
Deny terrorists the sponsorship support and sanctuary they need to survive
Diminish the underlying conditions that promote the despair and destructive visions of political change that lead people to embrace terrorism
Defend against terrorist attacks on the U.S. our citizens and our interests around the world
68 (No Transcript) 69 (No Transcript) 70 Coordination Levels Coalition Interagency Joint Army Combined Arms 71 National Counterterrorism Center
NCTC currently has assignees (USG staff) from
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Department of Defense
Central Intelligence Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Department of State
Others DOE NRC HHS USDA USCHP
Assignees to NCTC retain authorities of parent entities
In NCTC key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities
72 Terrorism Information Access and Integration
In NCTC key organizations involved in the fight against terrorism are collectively fulfilling shared responsibilities
73 Toward a Counterterrorism System
Beyond implementing Center responsibilities the greater goal is facilitating a counterterrorism system as part of a greater U.S. Government (USG) system-of-systems
All USG elements need not be centralized however a distributed but integrated framework must be consciously agreed upon and orchestrated
Roles and responsibilities of USG CT elements must be as unambiguous and straightforward as possible intentional rather than haphazard redundancy
74 Questions
About PowerShow.com
PowerShow.com is a leading presentation/slideshow sharing website. Whether your application is business, how-to, education, medicine, school, church, sales, marketing, online training or just for fun, PowerShow.com is a great resource. And, best of all, most of its cool features are free and easy to use.
You can use PowerShow.com to find and download example online PowerPoint ppt presentations on just about any topic you can imagine so you can learn how to improve your own slides and presentations for free. Or use it to find and download high-quality how-to PowerPoint ppt presentations with illustrated or animated slides that will teach you how to do something new, also for free. Or use it to upload your own PowerPoint slides so you can share them with your teachers, class, students, bosses, employees, customers, potential investors or the world. Or use it to create really cool photo slideshows - with 2D and 3D transitions, animation, and your choice of music - that you can share with your Facebook friends or Google+ circles. That's all free as well!
For a small fee you can get the industry's best online privacy or publicly promote your presentations and slide shows with top rankings. But aside from that it's free. We'll even convert your presentations and slide shows into the universal Flash format with all their original multimedia glory, including animation, 2D and 3D transition effects, embedded music or other audio, or even video embedded in slides. All for free. Most of the presentations and slideshows on PowerShow.com are free to view, many are even free to download. (You can choose whether to allow people to download your original PowerPoint presentations and photo slideshows for a fee or free or not at all.) Check out PowerShow.com today - for FREE. There is truly something for everyone!