Terrorism in the

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Terrorism in the 21st Century An Introduction
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DoD Disclaimer
Notes - The views expressed herein are those
of the author and do not purport to reflect the
position of the United States Military Academy
the Department of the Army or the Department of
Defense.
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Understanding the Strategy

• NATO definition of terrorism
• The unlawful use or threatened use of force or
  violence against individuals or property in an
  attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or
  societies to achieve political religious or
  ideological objectives
• Sun Tzu
• Know yourself
• Know your allies
• Know your enemy

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Sun Tzu Know Your Enemy

• What motivates terrorists
• How does someone become a suicide bomber
• What do these people want
• What are they capable of
• How do they view this struggle
• You have to be lucky everyday We only have to
  be lucky once - IRA Bomber

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• Key Terms
• Vision
• Power
• Belief
• Strategy
• Tactic
• Duty
• Shame
• Freedom fighter
• Self-sacrifice

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• Key Terms
• Vision Shape the future
• Power to achieve the vision
• Belief in a higher cause
• Strategy to compel coerce etc.
• Tactic bombing assassination etc.
• Duty to the cause to family to God
• Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice
• Freedom fighter must kill to secure freedom ()
• Self-sacrifice to be killed in the service of a
  higher cause is heroic

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Defining Terrorism

• Primary Types
• Left-wing
• Right-wing
• Ethno-nationalist (separatist)
• Religious
• State
• State-Sponsored

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Left-wing Terrorists

• Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts
• Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian
  anti-materialist agendas
• Typically target elites that symbolize authority
• Examples
• Anarchists Earth First Animal Liberation Front

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Right-wing Terrorists

• Often target race and ethnicity
• Examples
• Aryan Brotherhood the Order White Aryan Nation

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Ethno-nationalist/Separatists

• Usually have clear territorial objectives
• Liberation/separation
• Popular support usually along ethnic/racial
  lines.
• Examples
• Tamil Tigers Chechens ETA IRA PKK

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Religious terrorists

• Belief in a struggle of good vs evil
• Acting along desires of a diety target is thus
  not necessarily human
• Feel unconstrained by law higher calling
• Complete alienation from existing socio/political
  order
• Support may be diffuse
• Examples
• al Qaeda Hizballah Hamas Jemaah Islamiyah
  Christian Militia Aum Shinrikyo Al Aqsa Martyrs
  Brigade Amal Lehi Irgun

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State Terrorism

• Governments can engage in acts of terrorism
• Examples
• Iraq Saddam Hussein deployed chemical weapons in
  Kurdish villages killing thousands
• Intent was to frighten other villages into
  stopping their political revolt
• It worked

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State-Sponsored Terrorism

• Governments can also support terrorist groups
  that do their bidding
• Examples
• Iran which supports Hizballah
• Before 9/11 Hizballah had killed more Americans
  than any other terror group
• Embassy bombings kidnappings targeted
  assassinations suicide attack on Marine barracks
  at Beirut airport

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Marine Barracks Beirut Lebanon23 October 1983

• 241 Dead
• 105 Injured

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A Brief History of Modern Terrorism

• Roughly 130-year history
• 4 Waves each roughly 40-45 years
• Anarchist Wave
• Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave
• New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment
• Religious Inspiration Wave
• Issue to consider for each wave
• Doctrines of terror
• Technology (especially for communication/propogand
  a)
• Avenues of funding and support

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Terrorism as Strategy

• Terrorism as means to achieve goals and
  objectives
• Strategic goals include
• Political change (e.g. overthrow govt. drive
  out occupiers etc.)
• Social change (e.g. France headscarf ban)
• Economic change (e.g. stop resource export)
• Religious change (e.g. fundamentalism)
• Overall goal create a better world

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Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism

• Recognition Gaining national or international
  recognition for their cause recruiting new
  personnel raising funds demonstrating their
  strength
• Coercion Force a desired behavior of an
  individual or government
• Intimidation Prevent individuals groups or
  governments from acting
• Provocation Provoking overreaction by a
  government to the attack on symbolic targets or
  personnel thereby gaining sympathy for their
  cause.
• Insurgency support Forcing the government to
  overextend itself in dealing with the threat
  thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support
  and commit further attacks against the government.

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New York World Trade CenterFebruary 26 19936
Dead 1042 Injured
Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building 19 April
1995168 Dead 490 Injured
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Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan
1994 1995
Matsumoto JapanMarch 1994 7 Dead 34 Injured
Tokyo JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority
(Subway System) March 20 199512 Dead 5000
Injured
Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a
person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by
inhalation ingestion and through the eyes and
skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes
drooling and excessive sweating and then
rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing
dimness of vision nausea vomiting twitching
and headache. Ultimately the victim will become
comatose and suffocate as a consequence of
convulsive spasms.
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Khobar Towers - Dhahran Saudi Arabia 25 June
1996

• 19 Dead
• 240 Injured

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American Embassy Bombings Kenya and
TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans Kenyans and
Tanzanians deadOver 5000 injured
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1999 LAX Attack Plan
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The Strategy of Terrorism

• Increasing interest in soft targets
  (economically strategic impact and less
  protected) such as
• pubs in Northern Ireland London UK
• open markets cafes in Israel
• international airport Sri Lanka
• bus in Manila the Philippines
• shopping mall in southern Philippines
• nightclub in Bali Indonesia
• banks in Istanbul Turkey
• hotel in Jakarta Indonesia
• nightclub in Berlin Germany
• and of course . . .

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New York City Washington DCSeptember 11 2001
2973 Dead and 10000 Injured
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Modern Trends in Global Terrorism

• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)
• Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate
  smart bomb)

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Karachi PakistanMay 8 2002 June 14 2002
Attack on U.S. Consulate
Bus attack
14 Dead including11 French engineers
12 Dead50 Injured
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Bali IndonesiaOctober 12 2002
202 Dead350 Injured
Citizens from 21 countries mostly Western
tourists were killed in the blasts
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Casablanca MoroccoMay 17 2003
44 Dead107 Injured
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Jakarta IndonesiaAugust 5 2003
12 Dead60 Injured
J.W. Marriott Hotel Jakarta
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Riyadh Saudi ArabiaNovember 8 2003 April
21 2004
Attack on Security Services Headquarters
3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on
Al-Muhaya apartment complex
4 Dead148 Injured
17 Dead122 Injured
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Istanbul TurkeyNovember 20 2003
27 Dead400 Injured
Primary Targets British consulate and the HSBC
bank headquarters
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Madrid SpainMarch 11 2004
191 Dead1035 Injured
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Jakarta IndonesiaSeptember 9 2004
9 Dead173 Injured
Australian Embassy was primary target
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London UKJuly 7 2005
54 Dead716 Injured
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Strategy and Recruitment

• Terrorism is an individuals strategic choice
  most often driven by a combination of
• Intense grievances
• Sense of crisis
• Address a power imbalance - empower the
  disenfranchised
• The ties that bind training camps extended
  family social networks trusted networks key
• Combination of ideology and psychology
• No constraints re geography organizational
  affiliation etc.

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Modern Terrorism and Recruitment

• Overall goal create a better world
• Powerful message for recruitment . . .
• Video 1
• Video 2
• Video 3
• Video 4
• Video 5

Jihad
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Strategy and Training
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Strategy and Training

• Establish training camps developing the will to
  kill and the skill to kill
• Operational space Geographic isolation
• Teachers Experts in relevant knowledge e.g.
  military combat experience
• Committed learners
• Time money and basic necessities

• Afghanistan
• Algeria
• Bosnia
• Chechnya
• Colombia
• Egypt
• Indonesia
• Japan
• Kashmir
• Lebanon
• Libya

• Northern Ireland
• Peru
• The Philippines
• Somalia
• Spain
• Sri Lanka
• Sudan
• Syria
• Turkey
• United States
• Uzbekistan

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Strategy and Training

• Psychological dimensions
• Moral disengagement
• Displacement of responsibility
• Disregard for/distortion of consequences
• Dehumanization
• Moral justification
• Group power over behavior personal decisions
• Preparation for martyrdom

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Suicide Terrorism as Logical Strategy
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To be distinguished from
Definition of Suicide Terrorism
Intentionally killing oneself for the purpose of
killing others in the service of a political or
ideological goal

• High-risk missions w/out suicide as main intent
• Fooled couriers
• Suicide without homicide for a political cause

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Suicide Terrorism Who

• Perception
• Generalized profile of suicide terrorists
  including
• Young
• Single
• Male
• Uneducated
• Religious fanatics

• Reality
• The profile is wrong
• Suicide terrorists are
• Preteen - mid-sixties
• Both single and married with families
• Both male and female
• Both educated and uneducated
• Not motivated by religious fanaticism
• Worlds leader in suicide terror are Hindu Tamil
  Tigers who are conducting insurgency against Sri
  Lanka

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Trends Most deadly form of terrorism (so far)

• Israel 0.5 of attacks 56 of fatalities.
• U.S. 9/11 10 times more deadly than any
  previous terrorist attack in history.
• Hizballah Lebanon
• 1981 attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut
• 1983 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut
• 1983 attack on the Marines sleeping in barracks
  at the Beirut airport (241 killed)
• Also suicide attacks typically get more media
  coverage more strategic communications effect

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Trends 1980s
- Lebanon - Kuwait - Sri Lanka
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Trends 1990-2005
- Israel - India - Pakistan - Yemen -
Algeria - Chechnya - Kenya - Tanzania -
Panama - Argentina - Croatia - Australia -
Turkey - Russia - Morocco - Indonesia - Saudi
Arabia - Afghanistan - Indonesia - Spain -
U.K. - U.S.
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Suicide Terrorism Why
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Marine Barracks Beirut Lebanon23 October 1983
We couldnt stay there and run the risk of
another suicide attack on the Marines. -- Ronald
Reagan An American Life

• 241 Dead
• 105 Injured

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Why Are Suicide Attacks Effective

• Suicide attacks work because they have a
  different structure
• With suicide terrorism model the weaker acts as
  coercer and the stronger actor is the target
• Key difference
• Target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust
  to minimize future damage

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Questions

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Terrorism CT

• Backups

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1) Anarchist Wave

• Roughly 1880s to 1920s
• Examples
• Assassinations of Pres. McKinley Spanish Prime
  Minister etc.
• Doctrines
• Nechaevs Revolutionary Catechism Bakunin
  Kropotkins propaganda by the deed words are
  not enough . . .
• Technology
• communication and transportation patterns
  telegraph daily newspapers railroads
  technology shrank time and space
• weapons mostly guns and knives but invention of
  dynamite helped launch new terrorist capabilities
• Financing
• Bank robberies extortion etc.

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The Terrorists Perspective

• For one thing al Qaedas leaders believes that
  they have been tested by two superpowers (Soviets
  and Americans) they defeated the first and
  survived the second despite overwhelming military
  force thus both are considered victories
• Globally members of this global
  religious-inspired insurgency believe this is an
  epic struggle that will likely take place beyond
  the current generation of fighters
• In Iraq terrorists are developing a new cult of
  the insurgent by demonstrating how they not the
  once-feared Saddam Husseins military can
  inflict pain and suffering on the mighty U.S.
  (and coalition) forces
• Rationale for terrorism perceived as only
  available means by which to achieve strategic
  goal

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Anarchist Wave

• Tsar Alexander II (1861) frees the serfs (1/3 of
  Russias population) and promises funds for them
  to use to buy land
• Unable to provide those funds raised
  expectations lead to widespread anger
  disappointment unrest violence assassinations
• Terrorists seeking to provoke state to the point
  where the reaction leads to popular revolt
• Anarchists seldom successful but there are
  exceptions
• Tsarist Russia Narodnaya Volya (peoples will)
• Serbia Narodna Obrana (splinter Black Hand)
• Response of several governments was to create
  plain-clothes police forces (FBI Scotland Yard
  Russian Okhrana etc.) most are still in action
  today
• 1919 President Wilson authorizes round up of all
  Anarchists ship to Soviet Union
• 1920 bombing of Wall Street

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2) Anti-Colonial Wave

• Circa 1920s 1960s
• Examples
• Irgun (precursor to Lehi) the Stern Gang
  Zionist extremism
• South Africa
• Vietnam
• Algeria
• Doctrines
• Freedom for indigenous peoples to decide own
  system structure
• Anti-racism imperialism fewer assassinations
  then previous wave attacks mainly on police
  military colonial govt. targets
• Technology
• Faster means of communication transportation
  money transfer
• Financing
• Diaspora support particular from immigrants to
  developed Western countries

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3) New Left Wave

• Circa 1960s 1990s
• Examples
• Italian Red Brigades
• ETA (Spain France)
• LTTE (Sri Lanka)
• PLO (Middle East)
• West German RAF (Baader-Meinhof Gang)
• Japanese Red Army
• American Weather Underground
• Peru (Sendero Luminoso)
• New Doctrines strategies for political change
  Marxism separatism - Carlos Marighella
  Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla
• Technology
• Global sharing of new timing devices other
  trigger switches for explosives
• Airplane hijackings

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New Left Wave

• Built on widespread anti-Western political
  undercurrent throughout former European colonies
  as well as sentiments within Europe
• Supported by Vietnam experience
• Vietcong David defeats Goliath idea fuels other
  groups around the world
• Anti-Western political movements encouraged by
  Soviets Iran Libya N. Korea
• Of course this came back to bite the Soviets . .
  .
• Afghanistan
• Chechnya

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The Troubles

• IRA Anti-colonial New Left or something else
• Began the struggle during the 1920s
• Provisional IRA formed 1969 ceasefire 1997
• Real IRA bombings as recent as 2003
• Loyalists vs. Republicans and Protestants vs.
  Catholics
• Jackson case study of PIRA
• Political contexts for local support of
  terrorism (policy economics)
• Description of the terrorists tactics
  strategies innovations
• Targeting (e.g. mortar attack on 10 Downing
  street) own goals
• Transition in organizational structure why
• Description of the British counterterrorism
  measures taken
• Organizational/strategic learning evolution
• Successes or failures Effectiveness in producing
  political change

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4) Religious Inspiration Wave

• Current wave of terrorism
• Religious Cults (e.g. Aum Shinrikyo)
• Christian extremists
• Islamist extremists Jihad
• Iran 1979 revolution
• Afghanistan 1980s Jihad to oust the Soviets
• Iraq 2003- Jihad to oust the Americans
• Doctrines
• Fatwas against the West oust them from holy
  lands late 1990s shift from near enemy to far
  enemy
• Technology
• Increasing sophistication of IEDs
• Use of ultimate smart bomb (suicide terrorists)
• Weapons of Mass Disruption

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Religious Inspiration Wave Islamic Extremism

• Islam is fastest growing religion in U.S.
  elsewhere estimated over 1.2 billion followers
  worldwide.
• More than a religion a system of laws courts
  traditions customs etc. to govern all aspects
  of life
• Islam is the answer Muslim Brotherhood
• Difference in relationship w/God
• Lack of formal hierarchy (no Pope)
• Sunni-Shia split Shiites reject the truth held
  by Sunnis

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History Discussion Questions

• Why do people resort to violence in pursuit of
  political or ideological ends
• Political contexts
• Social contexts
• Other options to achieve goals
• Implications for government policy

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History Discussion Questions

• What motivates terrorists
• Vision - shape the future
• Power to achieve vision
• Belief in higher cause
• What else
• What role do economics psychology sociology or
  other grievances play in motivating terrorist
  groups

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Counterterrorism Strategy Post-9/11
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2. MIDLIFE (formerly DIME) CT Approach

• Question Once we understand the threat how do
  we address it
• Answer We employ all the instruments of national
  power available to us.
• Military
• Intelligence
• Diplomacy
• Legal
• Information
• Financial
• Economic

• Case studies of groups and events help us learn
  about each of these dimensions

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Intelligence Learn from our own mistakes

• We assumed simultaneous 9/11 attacks in U.S. were
  beyond the capabilities of terrorists
• Overestimated the significance of past successes
  the terrorists own incompetence
• Attention was focused exclusively on opposite
  ends of the terrorist technological spectrum
• Believed terrorists were still interested in
  publicity and not killing

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Elements of the National CT Strategy

• 4 Ds
• Defeat terrorist organizations of a global reach
• Deny terrorists the sponsorship support and
  sanctuary they need to survive
• Diminish the underlying conditions that promote
  the despair and destructive visions of political
  change that lead people to embrace terrorism
• Defend against terrorist attacks on the U.S. our
  citizens and our interests around the world

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Coordination Levels
Coalition
Interagency
Joint
Army Combined Arms
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National Counterterrorism Center

• NCTC currently has assignees (USG staff) from
• Federal Bureau of Investigation
• Department of Defense
• Central Intelligence Agency
• Department of Homeland Security
• Department of State
• Others DOE NRC HHS USDA USCHP
• Assignees to NCTC retain authorities of parent
  entities

• In NCTC key organizations involved in the fight
  against terrorism are collectively fulfilling
  shared responsibilities

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Terrorism Information Access and Integration

• In NCTC key organizations involved in the fight
  against terrorism are collectively fulfilling
  shared responsibilities

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Toward a Counterterrorism System

• Beyond implementing Center responsibilities the
  greater goal is facilitating a counterterrorism
  system as part of a greater U.S. Government
  (USG) system-of-systems
• All USG elements need not be centralized
  however a distributed but integrated framework
  must be consciously agreed upon and orchestrated
• Roles and responsibilities of USG CT elements
  must be as unambiguous and straightforward as
  possible intentional rather than haphazard
  redundancy

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Questions