International Terrorism and Lightning

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(not pictured below)
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War by developed countries

• State building effective police and military
• Control war, but still do it
• WWI rise of war aversion

Changing attitudes toward war
A prolonged peace favors the predominance of a
mere commercial spirit, and with it a debasing
self-interest, cowardice, and effeminacy, and
tends to degrade the character of the nation.
--Immanuel Kant, 1790
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War by developed countries since 1918

• World War II
• Colonial war
• Cold war
• Policing wars

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Number of wars among developed states since 1945
ZERO
0
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Longest period of peace on the Rhine since the
second century B.C.E., before the Cimbi and the
Teutones appeared to challenge the armies of the
consul Gaius Marius in the Rhone Valley.
--Brad de Long
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War, 1946-2003 (K. Gleditsch)
2002 Sudan India (Kashmir) Nepal Colombia Burundi
2003 Sudan India (Kashmir) Nepal Liberia Iraq
2004 Sudan 2994 Chechnya 1141 Nepal 1596 India
(Kashmir) 1075 Uganda 1600 Iraq
The data are for wars," violent armed conflicts
which result in at least 1000 battle deaths over
the duration of the dispute for international
wars, an average of at least 1000 battle deaths
per year for imperial and colonial wars, and at
least 1000 military and civilian battle-related
deaths per year for civil wars. Source K.
Gleditsch 2004.
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Battle-related deaths under 1000 per year

• armed conflict
• riots
• terrorism
• brutal policing
• criminal predation

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Civilian deaths when there are less than 1000
battle-related deaths in a year

• genocide
• mass killing
• massacre
• ethnic cleansing
• terrorism
• criminal predation

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• PEOPLE
  
  1,900
• SHEEP
  
  600,000
• COST TO UK THROUGH 1989 3,000,000 PER
  FALKLANDER
• OR
  5 PER SHEEP
• UK TROOPS, 1999
  2,000

MALVINAS ISLANDS
FALKLAND ISLANDS
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Frequency of Armed Conflict, 1946-2001
The data are for "armed conflicts," contested
incompatibilities that concern government or
territory or both where the use of armed force
between two parties (one of which must be the
government of a state) results in at least 25
battle-related deaths per year. Source N.P.
Gleditsch et al. 2002.
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Civil War, 1945-2002 (Fearon and Laitin)
The data are for civil wars," violent armed
conflicts which result in at least 1000 battle
deaths over the duration of the dispute with an
average of at least 100 deaths per year. Source
Fearon and Laitin 2003, 2004 .
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27 civil wars active in 2002, Fearon and Laitin
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Source Tilly 2003, applying Paul Collier, World
Bank data
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Frequency of War, 1945-2000
The data are for "wars," organized violence
between armed forces in which at least one side
is composed of regular governmental troops. Both
sides must have some degree of central direction,
and there must be some continuity to armed
operations. No casualty counts are included and
some of the wars tabulated have resulted in only
a handful of deaths. Source Gantzel and
Schwinghammer 2000 with additional data from
Burkhard Conrad.
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The remnants of war
Criminal wars
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The remnants of war
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Thugs as mercenaries
The remnants of war

• Yugoslavia
• Rwanda
• Kosovo
• East Timor
• Zimbabwe
• Chechnya
• Kenya
• Sudan

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Thugs as warlord bands
The remnants of war

• Sierra Leone
• Congo
• Somalia
• Colombia
• Burma
• Liberia
• Caucasus
• Nigeria
• Angola
• Algeria
• Macedonia
• Afghanistan

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Each dressed as if he had been cast as a thug by
a movie director. The atrocities in Bosnia
were committed by young urban gangsters in
expensive sunglasses.Dangerous primitives
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The remnants of war
Policing wars
Panama Gulf War Somalia Haiti Croatia Bosnia Rwand
a East Timor Sierra Leone Afghanistan Iraq

• Ancient hatreds myth
• Aversion to nation-building
• Low tolerance for casualties
• Lack of political gain from success
• Bias against war and aggression

Syndrome?
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The remnants of war
Disciplined wars
Sri Lanka Israel Iraq insurgency Chechnya
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POGG
Effective government
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NOTICERS

• Gwynne Dyer
• www.gwynnedyer.com
• United Nations
• 10 stories the world should hear more about The
  Peacekeeping Paradox, May 2004 www.un.org/events/t
  enstories
• PRIO
• Gregg Easterbrook
• New Republic forthcoming

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Im not so naïve or simplistic to believe we can
eliminate war. Were not going to change human
nature anytime soon.
Robert S. McNamara, in Fog of War
CRUCE?
USSHER?
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Biology/Psychology

• Testosterone
• Evolution
• Human nature
• Aggressive drive
• Thrill of war
• Moral equivalent

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Resentments

• Nationalism, religious extremism
• Inequality
• Lack of brotherhood, understanding
• Lack of love, justice, harmony, good will, inner
  peace
• Hate, selfishness, racism

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Weaponry

• Arms industry
• Military ethos
• Arms trade, proliferation
• Nuclear weapons

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Economics

• Economic development poverty-prosperity
• International trade
• Economic interdependence
• International communication
• Economic inequality

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Institutions

• State system
• Nation state
• International organization
• World government (vs. anarchy)
• International law
• Outlawing, renouncing war
• Security communities
• Democracy

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RESPONSES

• It aint happening
• OK, its happening, but I still have faith in my
  fellow man
• Yeah, but what about inequality in South Africa?

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MALARIA
AIDS
DRUGS
CORRUPTION
BUSH
poverty
politics
duct tape
CRIME
malnutrition
inequality
GLOBAL WARMING
FAMINE
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THE END