Intelligent Scenario Development for CAX

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Intelligent Scenario Development for CAX
Zlatogor Minchev
Institute of Mathematics Informatics, Bulgarian
Academy of Sciences e-mail zlatogor_at_math.bas.bg
This publication is supported by NATOs
Scientific Division in the framework of Science
for Peace Program - Project SfP-981149 (2005-2007)
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Theoretical Background
1. ?-R (Entity Relationship) model - Chen, 1976
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2. Systems Theory Bertalanffy, 1950
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SCIP Scenario Computer Interface Program
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Functional abilities
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Main menu
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File
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Edit
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Window
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Toolbar
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Sensitivity Diagram
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Objects Characteristics Form
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Relations Characteristics Form
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File Format
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Excel Interoperability
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Scenario Example for Crises Management
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Sensitivity Diagram
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Ideas to add Intelligence in SCIP

• Better Relations Evaluation

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w Evaluation

• Brainstorming
• Multi-criteria Approach
• Fuzzy Sets Implementation

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Multi-criteria Evaluation

• Multi-valued logic Lukasiewicz, 1920
• Fuzzy Sets Zadeh, 1965
• Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets Atanassov, 1983

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Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets
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Graphical Representation
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Possible Applications of IFS in SCIP

• w - ?A
• Interchange among ?A, ?A and ?A in accordance
  with your information
• Utilization of F?,? optimizing operator for
  uncertainty minimizing

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w - ?A

• Create two scales for ?A and ?A that are filled
  up trough experts knowledge and/or brainstorming

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Interchange among ?A, ?A and ?A in accordance
with your information

• 1. Create two scales for a and b that are filled
  up trough experts knowledge and/or brainstorming
  for things that you know, dont know or are
  uncertain for you
• 2. Substitute a and b with ?A, ?A or ?A in
  accordance with 1.
• 3. Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS
  definition) or IFS optimization (see next slide)

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Utilization of F?,? optimizing operator for
uncertainty minimizing

• ?A (x) ?x, ?A (x) , 1- ?A (x) ? x ? E
• ?A (x) ?x, ?A (x) , 1- ?A (x) ? x ? E
• F?,? (A) ?x, ?A (x) ?..?A(x), ?A (x)
  ?..?A(x)? x ? E, ? ?, ? ? 0, 1, ? ? ? 1,
  A fixed set, E universe of disclosure, x
  element from E (see IFS definition).

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I-SCIP Contribution

• SfP 981149 Scientific Research
• TACOM SEE 2006 / Protection 2006 Scenario
  Development
• NATO MSG 049 Scenario Development

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Conclusions

• Utilization of E-R model, systems theory and
  holistic thinking
• Interoperability between different software
  products
• Interactive work
• General view and evaluation of the scenario
  theatre.

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• QUESTIONS ?