Chapter 18: Energy and Mineral Resources

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Energy and Mineral Resources
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World energy sources

• Oil 37
• Coal 25
• Natural gas 23
• Nukes 6
• Biomass 4
• Hydropower 3
• Solar 0.5
• Wind 0.3

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The Middle East and Petroleum
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Why these places?

• Organic rich sediments provide source
• (Some) sedimentary rocks make good reservoirs
  (porosity and permeability)
• Structures provide traps (folds and faults, etc.)

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All petroleum is not the same
light
heavy
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Natural gas

• World reserves of 172 trillion m3
• Demand is on the order of 3 trillion m3/yr and
  increasing
• So we have on the order of 50 years left
• But, it is not easily used for transportation

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Importance of petroleum

• It keeps all our vehicles moving
• And powers industries
• What alternatives do we have?

8
Shale oil

• From fine grained sedimentary rock
• Many deposits worldwide
• Contain kerogen that can be converted to crude oil

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Shale oil

• From fine grained sedimentary rock
• Many deposits worldwide
• Contain kerogen that can be converted to crude
  oil
• But requires too much energy to extract and
  process due to low porosity and permeability
• Plus major environmental cost

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Tar sands
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Tar sands

• Bitumen in sand
• Mined by open pit mining
• Only makes up about 10 of the deposit rest is
  waste
• More than half of Canadas oil production, and
  more than
• 10 of N. American production
• Also quite a bit in Venezuela

Huge environmental cost! Mining scars CO2
emissions
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Alberta
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Mining tar sands in Alberta
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Syncrude Plant
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Tar sands

• Reserves estimated at 170-300 billion barrels
  equivalent to 4-6 years world demand
• Perhaps more energy than Saudi Arabia
• Today producing more than 1 million barrels/day
• Recall that US uses 20 million barrels/day
• Tar sands mean we import more from Canada which
  was already 1
• But, we need new pipelines and refineries

Keystone Pipeline crossing our state
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Electricity

• Electricity is the energy we take for granted
• Most comes from coal
• Some comes from nuclear
• Some comes from hydropower

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Coal
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The problem with ND coal

• Does not burn well
• Contains too much water
• Very dirty
• Very polluting
• Nobody wants it

Coal Creek Station
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Mountain top removal
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Gas hydrate could this be another source of
electricity?
Chunks of gas hydrate recovered from the Gulf of
Mexico in 2002
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Nuclear energy
Nuke at Monticello, Minnesota
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Natural uranium

• 99 cannot be used in conventional reactors
• So, supplies are limited
• Could build breeder reactors to use the other 99
• But this gives weapons-grade uranium and plutonium

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Hydropower
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Tidal power
First tidal powered turbine (Ireland)
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Geothermal power
Geothermal plant in Iceland
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Electricity in the future

• We still have lots of coal to burn
• But that adds to global warming
• But, there are lots of alternatives

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Heres the really bad news

• We are running out of petroleum
• Quickly

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How much is left?

• Reserves
• Proven reserves
• Depends on lots of things we dont know for sure
• Lets do some calculations

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Graph of US oil production etc
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(No Transcript)
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World oil discoveries
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Discovery vs demand
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Bakken Formation

• 200 300 billion barrels
• May recover 3 50 (6 150 billion barrels)
• Produced over 30 years 0.2 5 billion
  barrels/yr
• Equivalent to 0.0005 0.013 billion barrels/day
  (0.5 14 million/day)
• Latest estimates from NDGS are that even 3
  recovery may be optimistic

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Bakken Formation

• So, assume 3 recovery
• Produced over 30 years 0.2 billion barrels/yr
  200 million barrels/year
• Equivalent to 0.0005 billion barrels/day (0.54
  million/day)
• World uses 118 million barrels/day
• Equivalent to 43 billion barrels/year
• So the Bakken could provide about 0.4

?
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World oil production (in barrels)

• Most oil fields are small
• Four fields produce gt 1 million barrels/day
• Ghawar 4.5 million/day (Saudi Arabia)
• Cantarell 2 million/day (Mexico)
• Burgan 1.7 million/day (Kuwait)
• Da Qing 1 million/day (China)
• Total world production is 82.5 million/day
• Bakken could produce 0.54 million/day

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Ghawar

• Production started in 1951
• By 1981 producing 5.7 million barrels/day
• Soon fell - in 2001 produced 4.5 million
  barrels/day
• Major problem is water flooding, in part due to
  overpumping
• ExxonMobil estimates total oil that can be
  produced there is 60 billion barrels
• Have produced more than 50 billion barrels to
  date
• 4.5/118 4 of world production

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Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)

• On the order of 5 10 billions of barrels
• Produced over 30 years
• Equivalent to 150 300 million barrels/yr
• World uses 43 billion barrels/yr
• So, ANWR might make up 0.3 0.6 of world needs

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ANWR and the US

• US oil demand is about 20 million barrels/day
• Equivalent to 7.6 billion barrels/yr
• So, ANWR could produce 2-4 of our needs

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Outer Continental Shelves (OCS)

• Not counting Alaska, potentially
• 18 billion barrels of additional crude oil
• according to DOI
• Will take 10 years to get it going
• Produced over 30 years
• Will add 1-2 to US daily production

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Replacements for (conventional) petroleum

• Natural gas
• Tar sands
• Shale oil
• Ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Hydrogen
• Liquid Coal
• Plug in cars

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Lets look at ethanol
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Ethanol in Brazil - facts

• Brazil gas contains 25 ethanol
• Equivalent to 40 of total fuel used
• In 2007, all Brazilian cars can run on ethanol
• Enough ethanol is available
• Ethanol is used by planes too
• Ethanol is half the price of gasoline
• Ethanol has saved 120 brillion for Brazil
• Industry is because of sugar cane

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Ethanol in Minnesota - facts

• Corn!
• State law encourages ethanol production
• 0.20/gallon with some limits
• So, Minnesota has a few dozen ethanol plants
• They are making good money
• But, are subsidized

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Conclusions by the ethanol industry

• Extend ethanol subsidy
• Make ethanol fuel more available
• Require that state buy flexible fuel vehicles
• Require that 20 of all fuels be renewable
• Public forums for discussing fuel prices
• Expand ethanol production to other things besides
  corn
• Make sure that ethanol plants are locally owned

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Ethanol acreage

• US uses 146 gal gasoline/yr (a more recent
  estimate says 170)
• Corn yields could be 300 bu/acre
• Ethanol yields could be 2.7 gal/bu
• So, A 1.5 x 146 / (300 x 2.7)
• 270 million acres of corn needed

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Corn acreage

• Just calculated 270 million acres needed
• (More recent numbers give 320 million acres
  needed)
• Total cropland in the US is about 434 million
  acres
• Corn is about 20 of total harvest today
• In US we have 86 million acres of corn today
• Numbers confusing? North Dakota is about 45
  million acres

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Major Crops in the U.S.A. - 1997(in US
billions)

• Corn 24.4
• Soybean 17.7
• Wheat 8.6
• Alfalfa 8.3
• Cotton 6.1
• Hay 5.1
• Tobacco 3.0
• Rice 1.7
• Sorghum 1.4
• Barley 0.9
• Source 1997 USDA-NASS reports

Any significant increases in corn production take
away from other needed commodities and drive up
prices.
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biodiesel

• Typical made from vegetable or animal fat
• Can be used alone or blended
• Very polluting!
• Can make from waste
• But sources are scattered
• Or from food crops

Food vs Fuel
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Hydrogen

• Today almost all hydrogen comes from natural gas
• In principle can get it from water bit it takes
  a lot of energy to produce
• So, hydrogen is really just an energy storage
  system today

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Plug in cars

• Some technical problems (e.g., batteries) with
  cars
• Have to get the electricity from somewhere!

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Liquid coal

• Can convert coal into diesel
• But the energy required is very large
• Produces twice as much CO2
• But we have lots of coal

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Key concern 1 GHG emissions
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Key concern 2 energy yield

• Gasoline is the standard
• Natural gas good energy source, but . . .
• Biodiesel good energy source but . . .
• Tar sands minor gains
• Liquid Coal minor gains
• Ethanol may not break even
• Shale oil loses energy
• Hydrogen loses energy
• Plug in cars loses energy

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Useful Energy Yields
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So, what will we do when the music stops?