Trends, Wild Cards, Idle Thoughts

1
Trends, Wild Cards, Idle Thoughts

• Brainstorming for Monetizing_at_Amazon

Robert David Steele (Vivas)
2
World Trends

• Global Trends 2015 is best available unclassified
  reference.
• Google
• This is a quick once-over lecture, not a detailed
  survey--for that, CIA is better.

3
Trend Categories

• Human Systems
• Health Systems
• Cultural Systems
• Communications Systems
• Resource Systems

• Global Systems
• Political Systems
• Educational Systems
• Environmental Systems
• Economic Systems

4
Global Systems

• UN/International Law
• Globalization
• Wars, Conflicts, Arms
• Trade Balances
• Commodity Prices
• Debt Deficit
• Interest on Debt
• Species Identity

5
Political Systems

• Human Rights
• Pervasive injustice
• Democracy
• Inevitably rising
• Journalism
• Corruption
• 80 countries
• Censorship
• 62 countries

6
Educational Systems

• Adult illiteracy still in the 20-40 range in
  underdeveloped world
• Even the lower lines represent 40-60 million
  illiterate adults (many of them knowing only how
  to kill, steal, and rape)

7
Environmental Systems

• Climate change
• Freshwater scarcity
• Deforestation desertification
• Freshwater pollution
• Poor governance
• Loss of biodiversity
• Population growth

8
Economic Systems

• The World's Largest Economies United States (1),
  China (2), Japan (3), Germany (4), India (5),
  France (6), United Kingdom (7), Italy (8), Brazil
  (9), Indonesia (10), Mexico (11), Russia (12)

Poverty of the lower fifth is inevitably going to
impact on the upper fifth. Capitalism has lost
its moral compass.
English will not be main language of
commerce. Chinese followed by Hindi and then
Indonesian.
9
Human Systems

• Population explosion is killing the Earth
• In 2007 more people will live in urban areas than
  in rural areas
• Millions of refugees across 66 countries
• Trade in women children a growing threat

10
Health Systems

• Immunization a real success story, but...
• AIDS, TB, Malaria killing millions
• Food and animal diseases threatening humans
• SARS is a hint of the volatility to come

11
Cultural Systems

• Ethnic cohesion and fragmentation of nation-state
  of concern
• Religion is becoming violent--Evangelists and
  Islamic radicals
• Drugs continue to undermine governments
• RD is down, scholarship slipping

12
Communications Systems

• Internet has changed the balance of power
  (swarms, flash mobs, ethnic networks)
• Communications is vulnerable to power outages and
  aging software
• Transports are fragile

13
Resource Systems

• Running out of water--only Scotland and Quebec
  are sure things
• Plenty of food, badly distributed
• Energy imbalances are potentially catastrophic
  and very destabilizing--break out possible...

14
EarthManual_at_Amazon?
Earth is the only manned flying system of
systems that must be built, maintained, and
piloted, all at the same time. It is an on the
fly engineering challenge of the first order.
Spaceship Earth is at the end of its original
operating life, and in dire need of rapid
reconstruction and reconfiguration. Properly
orchestrated, an Earth Intelligence Network can
not only be profitable, it can save the planet by
empowering all with tailored useful intelligence.
15
Wild Cards

• This is the book.
• Wild Card factors.
• Wild Card process.
• 7 human wild cards.
• 7 environment wild cards.
• 7 technology wild cards.
• So what?

16
About the Author

• Mainstream futurist
• Road to 2015 (1994)
• Wild Cards (1997)
• Updated 2003
• Decorated veteran
• VN Gulf War
• pilot
• Republican advisor
• candidate for SecNav

17
Wild Card Typology

• Being health and physical environment
• Sustenance food, energy, transportation
• Actions personal relations, work, fun
• Tools learning, communications, technology

Tools Actions Sustenance Being
18
Wild Card Weight
Each of these can produce revenue for Amazon.

• Tools are least impactful--a 1
• Networked relations are second--a 2
• Sustenance is major power factor--a 3
• Mental reality models, wellness, environment are
  biggest--a 4

A
B-
D?
F?
19
Wild Card FactorsAmazon as a system for
spotting, assessing, acting on change.
UNSURE

• Rate of Change
• 1 years
• 2 months
• 3 days
• Reach
• 1 local
• 5 global
• Vulnerability
• 1 less adaptable
• 3 more adaptable

• Outcome
• 1 less uncertainty
• 3 more uncertainty
• Timing
• 1 twenty years out
• 4 next 5 years
• Opposition
• 2 great opposition
• (2) great support
• Power Factor
• 1 tool-level impact
• 4 human-level impact

FAST
SOON
GLOBAL
DENIAL
PAIN
FOCUS
Amazon replaces CIA as the primary intelligence
provider.
20
Some Top Wild Cards
21
Worldwide Epidemic (p. 30)

• 95 of Africa, 75 of China, 50 of Russia,
  Europe, Asia, 35 of America dies.
• Opportunties
• Air quality monitoring
• Remote disease sensing
• Secure body disposal
• Reconstitution services
• Wealth redistribution

ScanBack plays here.
22
Future Prediction (p. 52)

• Future prediction becomes as common as weather
  forecasting return on investment is
  extraordinary.
• Opportunities
• Global future sensing and trend analysis replaces
  government military sensing as core

Amazon Global Intelligence Council S3 Leverages
Aggregate Knowledge
23
Mass Migrations (p. 174)

• Chinese swarm Russia Africans Arabs swarm
  Europe, Indonesians swarm Australia, Latin
  Americans swarm US
• Opportunities
• Non-lethal border control
• Refugee camp operations
• Prevention at source

Information Peacekeeping Indigenous Wealth
Creation, Harness Time Energy of Refugees
24
Social Breakdown (p. 66)

• Random and gang crime skyrockets, sabotage of
  wealthy conveniences.
• Opportunities
• Simplify systems
• Protect systems
• Legalized manhunts
• Re-education programs

Amazon community, Amazon free online learning to
earn cash
25
Young Reject Old (p. 80)

• Illiterate youth reject taxes, revolt against
  old, productivity dives
• Opportunities
• Remedial education
• Socialization camps
• Euthenasia on old
• Alternative lifestyles
• Gray eagle peace corps

Amazon Serious Games for Youth, Harness Older
Minds in all languages, all dialects
26
Religious Right Rules (p. 166)

• Religious Right joins Zionists to eliminate civil
  rights, sponsor crusades against Islam, segregate
  atheists
• Opportunities
• Create new Liberia
• Organize self-defense committees localized
  governance

Amazon as the engine for informed democracy and
open cross-cultural dialog.
27
Illiteracy Widespread (p. 122)

• Massive failure of US education and massive
  drop-outs lead to productivity crisis and failure
  of pension funds.
• Opportunities
• Online education with incentives for me types
• Outsource everything
• Recalcitrant boot camps

Amazon integration of Serious Games with online
study, academic credits, time micro-cash banking
28
Asteroid Hits Earth (p. 88)

• Asteroid has same effect as multiple volcanos,
  creates new dark ages.
• Opportunities
• Alternative safe-havens
• Continuity of operations
• Wealth redistribution
• Search rescue

Self-sustainable green havens flourish under this
condition.
29
Earth Axis Shifts (p. 86)

• North and South poles shift, legacy crops and
  investments fail, all of humanity is dislocated.
• Opportunities
• In Extremis contingency real estate and
  safe-haven ops
• Wealth redirection
• Axis of re-learning

Amazon rapidly redistributes North to South and
South to North knowledge
30
Ice Melts, Oceans Rise (p. 90)

• Oceans rise 2-4 meters, most urban areas
  underwater.
• Opportunities Focus on building green above 100
  elevation

31
Fisheries Collapse (p. 114)

• Fisheries collapse around the world from
  over-fishing and from pollution.
• Opportunities
• Non-seafood proteins
• Chemical life-support
• Create new fish quick

Amazon as hub for all constructive research on
alternative and sustainable food options, while
actively monitoring over-fishing and unsound
subsidies of fishing industry.
32
No-Carbon Economy (p. 92)

• Fossil fuels are regulated out of use, first by
  Europe and China, finally by US
• Opportunities
• alternative energy
• alternative lifestyles
• new RD investments
• redistribution of wealth

Amazon Family creates global green investment
network.
33
Terrorism Swamps HS (p. 112)

• Leaderless resistance within both US militants
  and foreign terrorist groups leads to waves of
  random uncoordinated attacks on everything
• Opportunities
• Citizen sensing and swarm responses
• Friend of a Friend ID

Amazon Family becomes a virtual community with
visible ID
34
Global Food Shortage (p. 100)

• Massive starvation in Africa, Asia, and Latin
  America causes mass migrations, crime waves
  (locusts), and epidemics/plagues
• Opportunities
• Food delivery
• Asset rescue
• Personnel rescue
• Body disposal

Amazon provides the only successful real-time
historically- culturally- grounded situation
awareness.
35
Global Comms Down (p. 98)

• Astronomical event or meltdown of Microsoft and
  long-haul communications software takes global
  communications down for a year or more.
• Opportunities
• Alternative communications

This one is hugeand likely. Amazon provides
Amazon Family texting and locational information
using volunteers, ham radios, and couriers.
36
Energy Revolution (p. 142)

• Cold fusion, zero-point energy, two-way grids,
  neighborhood energy generation all happen,
  efficiently.
• Opportunities
• Decentralization of everything
• Way open for super-everything in science

Amazon accelerates positive social change by
becoming the life-long learning center for all
humans including the poor.
37
Time Travel (p. 54)

• Time travel and teleportation both become
  possible, first on earth and then between
  planets.
• Opportunities
• Nothing is permanent
• Transportation industry replaced by teleportation
  industry

Amazon positioned to be the trusted information
transfer system.
38
Electrical Disruption (p. 144)

• Massive lengthy meltdown of national electrical
  grids, both in US and in Europe
• Opportunities
• Rapid constitution of alternative neighborhood
  bases food, energy, police, fire, other services

Amazon sells combinations of Amazon Family
localized help disaster recovery knowledge and
rescue rebuilding teams earning Quest Coin as
alternative to cash.
39
Remote Viewing (p. 60)

• Remote viewing widespread (both technical and
  psychic), secrets go out the door
• Opportunities
• Public intelligence becomes big business
• Corruption eliminated
• Future sense becomes a national standard

Amazon serves as para-normal banker and
aggregator.
40
E-Cash Rules (p. 130)

• Cash disappears and is replaced by e-cash with
  varying levels of audit trail, from zero to
  total.
• Opportunities
• Governments lose half their revenue, criminals
  flourish, services of common concern now a la
  carte
• Quest Coin rules

This is serious. Amazons ability to combine
knowledge, Quest Coin, and Amazon Family could be
a vital part of localized resilience.
41
Medical Breakthrough (p. 34)

• Cancer, viruses, plagues, epidemics all
  eliminated with consequent population explosions
  especially among poor ignorant
• Opportunities
• birth control becomes a big business, alternative
  employment, education?
• Serious games

Amazon as provider of life-long serious games and
talent bank.
42
Summing Up

• Potential for rapid massive change is high.
• Continued ignorance by policy and public hasten
  ensure crisis.
• Wealth may lose its value in extremis.
• Intelligence may be the best investment.

Amazon can save the Republic by exploding the
box. Must communicate how others see us, and
what we are doing that makes no sense.
43
The New RulesGetting Away from Idiocy
44
Amazon as BOTH Communications Network, and
Knowledge Network

• Communications without
• intelligence is
• noise
• Intelligence without
• communications is
• irrelevant.

General Al Gray Commandant U.S. Marine Corps
45
21st Century C4I

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES
TOP-DOWN COMMAND CONTROL
OLD
LEADERS DECIDE
SECRET SOURCES METHODS
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN SOURCES METHODS
PEOPLE DECIDE
NEW
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
MULTI-CULTURAL TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES
46
The C4I Marketplace No One Is Connecting These
Communities
International Coalition Options
47
Ops-Logs-Intel-Real World Disconnects!
Decision-Maker Integration, Reflection Decision
Information Management Staff Collection
Management, Fusion, Analysis Presentation FIND
(free), GET (free), BUY (cheap), TASK (costly)
1
2
EXISTING INPUT normal staff process,
counterparts, family/friends
OPEN SOURCE INPUT Internet private sector
fee-for-service
RANDOM
SECRET
INFORMATION UNIVERSE Relevant and Irrelevant --
Open and Secret
48
Future I

• Commoditization
• of software services
• Shift in focus
• from machine to user
• Virtualization
• proprietary lock-in ends
• Convergence
• of C4I in all devices
• Open Standards
• Changes value points

49
Future II

• Open Spectrum
• End frequency allocation
• Move to smart devices
• US instantly has more spectrum than anyone else
• WiFi
• leverages open spectrum
• cracks last mile, globally
• Hand-Held ScanBack
• Primary input-output device

Amazon can take lead with hand-held functionality
reach-back.
50
Future III
Books are OLD knowledge get ready to capture,
store, sell real-time new knowledge.

• Real-Time
• Systems
• Sensors
• Robots
• RFID ubiquitous
• Smart Dust cheap
• taking pictures
• analyzing chemicals
• Wireless is the lever
• time, power, choices

51
Future IV

• Grid computing
• power devolves to end-users (S3 is important)
• cost of networks reduced
• data alliances on-the-fly
• government no longer last word on any subject
• Motes Nanotech
• Mote microprocessor, two-way radio and software,
  ad hoc wireless networks

52
Future V

• Web Services open plug and play everything
• XML, SOAP, WSDL, UDDI, RSS
• Weblogs become primary vehicle for structured
  sharing
• Web process templates optimize workflows and
  enhance distributed work

Consider sponsoring a completely open source
toolkit via Amazon.
53
Future VI

• Digital Dashboard
• Immersive
• Responsive
• Comprehensive
• Adaptable
• Meta-data/Micro-content
• C4I in one hand
• CISCO AON security
• Convert info into power

54
Future VII

• Neo-biological C4I
• nanotechnology
• biotechnology
• information technology
• cognitive sciences
• Impact on everything
• Accelerating by orders of magnitude
• Unanticipated social consequences

55
Challenges_at_Amazon

• New disciplines, new connections
• Content not only not in print
  journals--includes blogs, emails, voice messages
• Fast-changing information context
• Global--can no longer ignore foreign languages
• Boundaries fuzzy and changing constantly
• Computation and computer processes marginal
• People and social networks matter more than ever

56
Ad Hoc Local Linkages
57
Creating Community
.com
www.ReunitingAmerica.org 80 million end-users
waiting for Amazon to give them what they need to
import intelligence export policy consensus.
58
Drivers for Global Signals

• XML-etcetera
• One-time data entry
• Geospatial attributes for all data
• Data authentication service
• End-user labor templates
• Micro-cash/audit trails
• Pierre Levys Information Economy Meta Language
  (IEML)
• Doug Englebarts Open Hypertextdocument System
  (OHS)

59
Rule 1Decision-Support is the Raison detre
F1

• Data vs. information vs. intelligence
• Discovery, discrimination, distillation, delivery
• Intelligence defined by product, not source
• Answer the question!
• Then ask, what next?

F2
F3
Tools Thinking
What Next?
F4
60
Rule 2Value-added comes from analysis

• Analysis of all sources, rather than secret
  sources, are the core competency of the
  intelligence world.
• Problem with spies (and most analysts) is they
  only see 2 of the relevant information.

61
Rule 3Global Coverage matters more

• Must go from 80 on hard targets to 80 on
  global coverage.
• Surprise is avoided only by casting a wide net in
  29 languages.
• Open sources are a national insurance policy
  against surprise

• EXAMPLES
• French Steel Industry
• India-Pakistan Nuclear Bake-Off

62
Rule 4Non-traditional threats are critical

• Disease
• Water scarcity
• Energy scarcity
• Genocide
• Migration
• Crime
• Proliferation
• Terrorism

63
Rule 5Intelligence without translation is
ignorant
Millions
OSS Terrorism Project 1999 Arabic, Catelan,
Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi,
Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish,
Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji,
Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian,
Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu

• USA failed to translate captured documents from
  first World Trade Center bombing and from
  Philippines
• Need global network of on-call translators in 29
  languages
• Web-based

64
Rule 6Sources ( methods) balance matters more

• Must strike better balance between
• technical (-) and human () collection
• secret (-) and open sources ()
• collection (-) and processing ()
• production (-) and reflection ()

65
Rule 7Two levels down is the new standard

• Nation-states are old targeting standard
• New standard is at the province, company, and
  individual level
• This is a double order of magnitude increase in
  the difficulty of being adequate

State Targets -- Lots of Assets
Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets
Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets
66
Rule 8Processing matters more, is core competency

• Multi-lingual wide nets will dramatically
  increase complexity and amount to data
• Global coverage and multi-lateral alliances
  require global web-based processing
• Human productivity depends on processing

Philip Emeagwali received worldwide publicity in
1989 for using 65,000 processors to perform the
world's fastest computation of 3.1 billion
calculations per second.
67
Rule 9Cultural intelligence is fundamental

• More important than political or economic or
  military intelligence
• Requires deep skills in history and language
• Cannot teach this--must hire those that already
  have it (e.g. second generation Arabs)

Chinese View
Arab View
Analytic Question
Indian View
European View
68
Rule 10Geospatial and time tagging are vital

• Given the increase in relevant data, automated
  pattern analysis and anomaly detection are vital.
• Geospatial and time attributes on all data enable
  intermediate processing.

Show me everything about this space in this
timeframe, right now, on my desktop.
69
Rule 11Global open source benchmarking mandatory

• In order to detect change around the world, a
  multi-national effort to benchmark global open
  sources is mandatory.
• This will set stage for spikes and patterns
  that can trigger classified collection.

• Arabic, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari,
  Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German,
  Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean,
  Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish,
  Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish,
  Tamil, Turkish, Urdu

70
Rule 12Counterintelligence matters more

• Counterintelligence must be a discipline in its
  own right, with protected funding and long-term
  specialists.
• Non-state terrorists who are already citizens
  require street-level counterintelligence.

U.S. Employee Traitors
U.S. Contractor Traitors
Criminal Espionage Penetrations
U.S. Foreign Terrorists
71
Rule 13Cross-fertilization matters more

• Old approach consumer to analyst to collector to
  source--the linear paradigm
• New approach is the diamond paradigm where
  collectors and analysts help consumers talk
  directly to sources

72
Rule 14Decentralized intelligence matters more

• In the age of distributed information, central
  intelligence is an oxymoron.
• Knowing who knows matters more than knowing
  something
• Just enough, just in time intelligence creation

N
RC
M
NM
A
L
B
73
Rule 15Collaborative Work Informal Deals Rise

• Intelligence collectors and analysts will have
  personal brands
• Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle
  new problems
• Electronic access more important than physical
  location

74
Rule 16New Value is Content Context Speed

• Old paradigm separated secrets from sources, and
  was insensitive to timing and context
• New paradigm places value on content in context,
  delivered at the right time.

75
Rule 17Collection based on gaps versus priorities

• Priorities should rule only the first effort.
• After that, focus must be on gaps.
• Something on everything is better than everything
  on just a few targets.
• Global reach is helpful

76
Rule 18Collection doctrine more sophisticated

• FIND the data if you already know it
• GET the data if it can be gotten free from an
  ally or NATO or the church
• BUY the data from the private sector
• TASK classified collectors as a last resort

FIND -- free, internal GET -- free,
allies BUY -- low cost TASK -- expensive
77
Rule 19Citizen Intelligence Minutemen Vital

• Hive mind is the essence of 21st Century
  intelligence
• Creating a Smart Nation depends on mobilizing and
  harnessing all citizens
• Virtual intelligence networks everywhere

78
Rule 20Production based on needs versus
capabilities

• Forget about routine or recurring production
• New craft demands that all products be tailored
  to specific needs
• Spend more time thinking, traveling, and talking
  to consumers--less time writing

OLD
NEW
Produce Produce Produce Produce Produce
Think Travel Converse Network Produce
79
Rule 21Strategic intelligence matters more

• Estimative intelligence must be restored as one
  of the primary objectives of analysis
• Intelligence must support preventive action (in
  advance of the threats maturing), and budget
  trade-off decisions

FUTURE
PAST
NOW
OPTIONS
80
Rule 22Budget intelligence is mandatory

• Analysis of the national budget is the best way
  of determining if policymakers are informed by
  intelligence
• When spending is not enough for certain threats,
  this deficiency must be made public.

81
Rule 23Public intelligence drives public policy

• Secret intelligence alone cannot assure public
  safety or sound policy, hidden costs
• Public intelligence estimates and public
  discussion of intelligence budgets is now
  essential

• Selected Opinions
• McDaniel -- turf protection
• Moynihan -- high costs
• policymakers uninformed
• government not accountable
• public left out of debate
• Ellsberg -- conceals policy

82
Rule 24Analysts are Managers, Collectors are
Analysts
Case officer from cowboy hip-shooter to
thoughtful historian.

• Analysts must be managers of people, money,
  priorities, and information.
• Collectors must be analysts and bring to
  collection a deep knowledge of the target, the
  source, and the requirement.

Analystfrom introvert in cubicle to extrovert
handling people.
83
Rule 25New Measures of Merit--ISO Standards

• Gross results no longer acceptable--numbers of
  reports, of recruitments,
• Evaluation based on usefulness of answers across
  all topics
• Need ISO standards that can be shared across
  multi-national boundaries

84
Rule 26Multi-lateral burden sharing is vital

• We still need spies and secrets that no one else
  can find or learn.
• However, the great majority of intelligence in
  the future is only possible if we work together
  in multi-lateral teams.

85
Conclusion_at_Amazon

• Coin
• Community
• Communication
• Computing
• Collaborative Toolkit
• Consensus
• Conclusions
• Cash Flow