Energy and the New Reality, Volume 1: Energy Efficiency and the Demand for Energy Services Chapter 2: Energy Basics L. D. Danny Harvey [e-mail]

1
Energy and the New Reality, Volume 1Energy
Efficiency and the Demand for Energy Services
Chapter 2 Energy Basics L. D. Danny
Harveyharvey_at_geog.utoronto.ca
Publisher Earthscan, UKHomepage
www.earthscan.co.uk/?tabid101807

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2
Forms of energy

• Primary energy as it is found in nature (coal,
  oil, natural gas in the ground)
• Secondary energy energy that has been converted
  from primary energy to another form (electricity,
  refined petroleum products, processed natural
  gas)
• Tertiary energy one more step in the chain
  end-use energy (what we actually want light,
  heat, cooling and mechanical power)

3
Conversions

• Secondary energy
• primary energy x conversion efficiency
• So, given an amount of secondary energy, divide
  by the conversion efficiency to get the amount of
  primary energy required to produce that amount of
  secondary energy

4
Figure 2.1 Primary to Secondary to End-Use Energy
5
Primary Energy Equivalent of Electricity from
Hydropower or Nuclear Power

• Electricity from hydro and nuclear could instead
  be produced by burning fossil fuels to generate
  electricity
• So, divide the amount of hydro or nuclear
  electricity by the efficiency in generating
  electricity from fossil fuels to get the primary
  energy equivalent of the hydro or nuclear
  electricity
• I use a standardized efficiency of 40
• Thus, 1 MJ of hydro or nuclear (or wind or solar)
  electricity is treated here as the equivalent of
  2.5 MJ of primary energy

6
Energy and Power

• Energy (the ability to do work) has units of
  joules (J)
• Power is the rate of supplying energy, and has
  units of watts (W), where 1 W 1 J/s
• Thus, to convert power to energy used, we
  multiply by the length of time in seconds over
  which the power is supplied, whereas to convert
  the amount of energy used over a given time to
  the average power, we divide energy by time in
  seconds

7
Big Numbers

• It is convenient to represent global and regional
  annual energy use in units of exajoules, where 1
  EJ 1018 joules, and to represent world power
  demand in gigawatts or terawatts, where 1 GW
  109 watts and 1 TW 1012 watts,
• so 1 TW1000 GW
• Primary power (W) demand is given by annual
  energy use (J) divided by the number of seconds
  in one year
• Thus, total world primary energy use in 2005 of
  483 EJ corresponds to an average rate of supply
  of primary energy (primary power) of 15.3 TW

8
Electrical Energy

• When it comes to the energy supplied by an
  electrical power plant, it is common to multiply
  the power times the number of hours in the time
  period during which the power is supplied
• Thus,
• from kW (kilowatts) we get kWh
  (kilowatt-hours)
• from GW (gigwatts) we get GWh
  (gigawatt-hours)
• from TW (terawatts) we get TWh
  (terawatt-hours)
• To convert energy in units of kWh, GWh or TWh
  into energy in units involving joules, multiply
  by the number of seconds in an hour (and divide
  by the appropriate factor of 10, depending on the
  desired final units)

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Figure 2.2a Growth in the Use of Primary Energy
10
Figure 2.2b Growth in the use of primary energy
11
Figure 2.3 Variation in the price of crude oil,
1860-2008
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Figure 2.4 Price of Oil, Natural Gas and Coal
13
Figure 2.5a Growth in Electricity Supply
14
Figure 2.5b Growth in Electricity Supply by
Energy Source
15
Overview of Energy Supply and Use in 2005
16
Figure 2.6a World Primary Energy Sources in 2005
17
Figure 2.6b OECD Primary Energy Sources in 2005
18
Figure 2.6c Non-OECD Primary Energy Sources in
2005
19
Figure 2.7a Uses of Coal in 2005
20
Figure 2.7b Uses of Oil in 2005
21
Figure 2.7c Uses of Natural Gas in 2005
22
Figure 2.8 Direct Primary Energy Use in 2005
23
Figure 2.9 Electricity Use By Sector in 2005
24
Figure 2.10 Primary Energy Use by Sector in 2005
(after allocation of energy used to generate
electricity to the sectors that use the
electricity)
25
Figure 2.11 Annual Electricity Use per capita in
2005
26
Figure 2.12 Distribution of Global Electricity
Generating Capacity in 2005
27
Figure 2.13 Distribution of Global Electricity
Generated by Source in 2005 (IEA data)
28
Figure 2.14 Geographical Distribution of
Electricity Generating Capacity in 2005
29
Energy Resource and Energy Reserves

• Energy Resource in the case of non-renewable
  energy how much is there in the ground and
  potentially extractable
• Energy Reserve that portion of the resources
  that it is worthwhile extracting given current
  prices and technology
• As technology improves or prices increase, some
  of the energy in the resource base becomes part
  of the reserve

30
Figure 2.15 Hypothetical increase in the cost of
natural gas in the US with increasing cumulative
extraction
Source Rogner (1997, Annual Review of Energy and
the Environment 22, 217262)
31
Peak Oil

• Oil supply from any given individual oil field
  first rises soon after it is developed, reaches a
  peak as the oil begins to be exhausted, then
  gradually declines
• The peak in overall oil supply depends on the
  rate of addition of new oil fields and the timing
  of the peaking, and subsequent rate of decline,
  of existing oil fields
• The rate of discovery of new oil has been falling
  decade by decade for several decades

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• The rate of decline of oil fields once they reach
  their peak has become faster and faster for oil
  fields that have been developed and peaked
  successively later in time (from 5/yr decline
  for fields that peaked in the 1960s to 11/yr
  decline for fields that have peaked since 2000)
• The two factors combined with the numbers of
  fields nearing their peak and the absolute rate
  of discovery of new fields guarantee an eminent
  (by 2020 or sooner) peaking in world oil supply
• This projection does assume that new oil will be
  discovered, but at a declining rate

33
Logistic Growth Function

• Exponential growth dC/dtaC,
• Solution is C(t)Coeat (1)
• Logistic growth there is a negative feedback
  that becomes important as C becomes large
• dC/dt aC bC2 (2)
• Solution is C(t)a/(b((a-bCo)/Co)e
  -a(t-to))
• As t ?8,C ?a/b (verify from (2) that this makes
  dC/dt0)
• Call this limit the ultimate consumption, Cu (so
  Cu a/b).
• We can rewrite the solution as
• C(t)Cu/(1(Cu-Co)/Co)e -a(t-to) )

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Figure 2.16a Variation in the rate of extraction
of a resource and in the cumulative extraction as
modelled by the logistic function
35
Figure 2.16b Variation in the ratio of rate of
extraction over cumulative extraction vs
cumulative extraction when extraction rate
follows the logistic function.
The point on the X-axis where E/C extrapolates to
zero gives an estimate of the ultimate
extraction or consumption (when EdC/dt0, there
is no more consumption)
36
Figure 2.17 IEA oil demand forecast made in 2008
(or in earlier years, indicated by Xs alongside
the year of forecast) and breakdown of projected
supply meeting the 2008 demand forecast
37
Figure 2.18 Hubberts model of US oil production,
actual production, price of oil, and rate of
drilling of wells
Source Kaufman (2006, World Watch 19, 19-21)
38
Figure 2.19 Example of enhanced oil recovery
(EOR) not increasing the ultimate extraction
Source Gowdy and Julia (2007, Energy 32,
14481454, http//www.sciencedirect.com/science/jo
urnal/03605442)
39
Figure 2.20 Decade-by-decade discovery of oil
Source Campbell and Siobhan (2009, An Atlas of
Oil and Gas Depletion, Jeremy Mills Publishing,
UK)
40
Table 2.7 Official size of oil reserves
(billions of barrels) in various OPEC countries.
Source Colin Campbell, Oil Depletion Analysis
Centre, Edinburgh, 25 April 2005
41
Figure 2.21 Geologically-based assessment of
world oil supply (Campbell and Siobhan, 2009)
Source Campbell and Siobhan (2009, An Atlas of
Oil and Gas Depletion, Jeremy Mills Publishing,
UK)
42
Figure 2.22 Balancing supply and demand. This
will be accomplished through an increase in the
price of oil, which increases supply and reduces
demand
43
Summary of arguments that oil supply will peak
soon

• The rate of discovery of new oil fields has been
  steadily declining over the past several decades
  (as one would expect the big fields are
  discovered first)
• Many big oil fields are mature
• The rate of decline in individual oil fields,
  once they reach their individual peaks, has been
  increasing over time (due to advances in
  technology that can keep high rates of extraction
  proceeding until less and less remains), with the
  latest fields to peak entering a subsequent
  decline rate of 10/yr
• Give the numbers of mature fields, expected rates
  of post-peak decline, and declining rate of
  discover of new field, a peak in global supply is
  eminent
• Unconventional sources (tar sands, shale oil)
  cannot increase fast enough to materially delay
  the peak, but can slow down the decline after the
  peak

44
Peak Natural Gas

• The data are much less certain than for oil
• Natural gas extraction can proceed at a high rate
  until the field is almost exhausted, followed by
  a much more rapid decline than for oil

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Figure 2.23 Distribution of remaining natural gas
46
Figure 2.24 Colin Campbell's world gas supply
forecast
Source Colin Campbell
47
Coal Resource

• Almost universally assumed to be vast- sufficient
  to last for 100s of years, even with a growing
  rate of consumption
• Estimates of the amount of minable coal have
  fallen dramatically over time, but estimated
  amounts are still large enough to cause several
  times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration if all
  used within a couple of hundred years
• Statistical approaches suggest that even the
  latest estimates might be far higher than what
  can actually be mined

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Figure 2.25 Changing estimates of the size of the
global total recoverable coal resource
Source EWG (2007, Coal Resources and Future
Production)
49
Recall If the extraction of a resource follows
the logistic growth function, where C is the
growing cumulative extraction and EdC/dt is the
rate of extraction, then a plot of E/C vs C is a
straight line
50
Figure 2.26 British coal supply
Source Rutledge (2007) Hubberts Peak, the Coal
Question, and Climate Change, www.rutledge.caltec
h.edu
51
Figure 2.27 Cumulative extraction of British Coal
Source Rutledge (2007) Hubberts Peak, the Coal
Question, and Climate Change, www.rutledge.caltec
h.edu
52
Figure 2.28 Rate of extraction of Pennsylvania
anthracite coal
Source Rutledge (2007) Hubberts Peak, the Coal
Question, and Climate Change, www.rutledge.caltec
h.edu
53
Figure 2.29 Inferred ultimately extractable coal
resource and portions already used and remaining
54
US National Academy of Sciences, 2007 report on
coalPresent estimates of coal reserves are
based upon methods that have not been reviewed or
revised since their inception in 1974, and much
of the input data were compiled in the early
1970s. Recent programs to assess reserves in
limited areas using updated methods indicate that
only a small fraction of previously estimated
reserves are in fact minable reserves
55
Two recent national studies

• Tao and Li (2007), adopting the official estimate
  of the ultimately recoverable coal resource in
  China (223 Gt, vs about 115 Gt from Figure 2.29),
  predict a peak in Chinese coal supply around 2030
• Croft and Patzek (2009) estimate that the current
  rate of extraction of bituminous coal from
  existing US mines can be sustained only for
  another 20 years, and only another 40-45 years
  for subbituminous coal. The prospect of new mines
  being developed is nil.

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Two Landscape Impacts of Fossil Fuel Use

• Strip mining and mountain-top decapitation for
  coal mining (related to our electricity demand)
• Landscape destruction for mining of tar sounds
  (related to our transportation demand)

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Supplemental Figure S2.1 Coal mining in Australia
Source Emily Rochon, Greenpeace
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Supplemental Figure S2.2 Mountaintop
decapitation coal mining in Appalachia, USA
Source Emily Rochon, Greenpeace
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Exhibit 1-25a Location and nature of the
Canadian tar sands
2 tonnes of bitumen-laden sand produce 1
barrel of oil
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Exhibit 1-25b Before tar sands surface mining
Source ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/03/canadia
n-oil-sands/essick-photography
61
Exhibit 1-25c After tar sands surface mining
Source ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/03/canadia
n-oil-sands/essick-photography
62
Exhibit 1-25d Upgrader to the left, original
forest to the right
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Toxic effluent into tailings ponds, some of which
seeps into the rivers and poisons native
communities downstream
Source ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/03/canadia
n-oil-sands/essick-photography
64
Exhibit 1-25f Tar sands tailings pond (the bird
is fake)
Source ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/03/canadia
n-oil-sands/essick-photography
65
environmental radicals funded by foreigners
Stephen Harper, 10 Jan 2012
66
Proposed Northern Gateway pipeline to supply
crude petroleum to China. Much of the route would
pass through lands belonging to First Nations
peoples, and faces massive opposition
Source www.northerngateway.ca/project-info/route-
map
67
Douglas Channel, home to eagles, herons, osprey,
whales, seas-lions, seals, dolphins and Black,
Grizzly and Kermode bears, and a treacherous
route for potentially one 1-million barrel
supertanker per day to China!
Source  http//www.retirekitimat.ca/images/storie
s/pdf/Lakelse_Douglas_Channel_Map.pdf
68
Bernard Harbour
Source Emma Gilchrist, Dogwood Initiative
69
Spirit Bear Coast with Humpback whale
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Supplemental Figure S2.3 Collapse of dam
retaining coal ash on 22 December 2008, releasing
about 4 million m3 of ash (see http//www.nytimes.
com/2008/12/27/us/27sludge.html?ftay photos
from Emily Rochon, Greenpeace).
71
Supplemental Figure S2.4 Tar sands mining in
Alberta, Canada
Source Werner Koldehoff, Management Consulting,
koldehoff.werner_at_t-online.de