I : 21.

1
???????? ????? ?? ????? 21. ???? ? ??????
?????????
2

• I ???????? ????? ?????? ??? ? ???????? ?????????
  ?? ??????? 21. ????
• II ????????? ????? ???? ?????? ????????
  ????? ??????
• III ???? ?? ???? 21. ????
• IV ??????????

3
I ???????? ????? ?????? ??? ? ???????? ?????????
?? ??????? 21. ????
4

• Jo? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? ???????
  ????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????? ??????. ?????
  ?????? ???????? The Economist, ????????? ??????
  ?? ?????????? ?????? ????? ??????. ??? ??????????
  ??????????, ????????? ? ?????????????? ??????
  ???????? ?? ???????????? ? ?????, ?????? ?????
  ??? ?? ??? ?????? (????? ???)
• (Paul Kennedy) Nothing has ever existed like
  this disparity of power nothing. I have returned
  to all of the comparative defense spending and
  military personnel statistics over the past 500
  years that I compiled in The Rise and Fall of the
  Great Powers, and no other nation comes close.
  The Pax Britannica was run on the cheap,
  Britain's army was much smaller than European
  armies, and even the Royal Navy was equal only to
  the next two navies-right now all the other
  navies in the world combined could not dent
  American maritime supremacy.Charlemagne's empire
  was merely Western European in its reach. The
  Roman empire stretched farther afield, but there
  was another great empire in Persia, and a larger
  one in China. There is, therefore, no
  comparison.

5

• ????????? ???????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????
  ?????????
• ????????? ???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????????
• The United St?tes of America as country in
  position of primacy
• ????????? ???????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ?? ?
  ???????? ???????? ????????

6

• Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine says that he now
  defines the United States as a "hyperpower," a
  new term that he thinks best describes "a country
  that is dominant or predominant in all
  categories.
• "Superpower," in his view, was a Cold War word
  that reflected military capabilities of both the
  Soviet Union and the United States. But now, the
  breadth of American strength is unique, extending
  beyond economics, technology or military might to
  "this domination of attitudes, concepts, language
  and modes of life.
• Mr. Vedrine described France as a "power of world
  influence," situated in a category coming
  immediately after the United States, and
  including, he declared, "Germany, Britain,
  Russia, Japan, India, and perhaps others."
• ????????? ???????? ?????? ??? Überpower (Josef
  Joffe)

7
1.1. ???? ????????? ?????????
8
?????? ????, ?????????...
9

• ???? ?????? ???? ?? ??????????, ?????? ???? ??
  ???????? ?? ?? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ???????
  (??? ??????)
• Great Powers, as the words suggest, are the most
  influential states in the international system at
  any one time (Martin Griffiths, Terry O
  Callaghan)

10

• ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?????????? ??
  ?????? ????????, 1815. ??????
• ?????a ???a ????? ???? ?? ? ????? ?? ????
  ?????????????? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ??????? ??????,
  ? ?? ?? ??? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??????????, ? ???
  ??? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????????
  ?????? ? ???????????? ??????? ????? ???????. ??
  ??????? ?????????? ??????, ??????? ?? ????? ?? ??
  ?????????????? ????????? ? ???? ?????? ????? ?
  ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ? ???? ???????? ???
  ?????? ????. (??? ?????????)

11

• ???? ?? ????? ? ??????????? ??????? ????????????
  ??????, ????????? ??????? ????????? ???????? ??
  ?????? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ?? ???
  ???????????? (?????-????????? ??????????) ?
  ?????? ?? ????????????? ????? ????????? ???????
  ????. ?? ???????? ???????, ?????? ?? ??????? W.
  T.R. Fox 1944. ??????. ?????? W. T.R. Fox, The
  Super-Powers The United States, Britain and
  Soviet Union- their Responsibility for the Peace,
  Harcourt, Brace, New York, 1944. ???????? ?????
  Graham Evans, Jeffrey Newnham, The Penguin
  Dictionary of International Relations, Penguin
  Books, London, 1999,

12

• We proposing the following definitional criteria
  for a three-tiered scheme superpowers and the
  great powers at the system level, and regional
  powers at the regional level (Barry Buzan)
• Superpowers The criteria for superpower status
  are demanding that they require broad- spectrum
  capabilities exercised across the whole
  international system. Superpowers must possess
  first- class military political capabilities
  (as measured by the standards of the day), and
  the economies to support such capabilities

13
????????
14

• Empires, more than nation-states, are the
  principal actors in the history of world events.
  Much of what we call history consists of the
  deeds of the 50 to 70 empires that once ruled
  multiple peoples across large chunks of the
  globe.
• Officially, there are no empires now, only 190-
  plus nation-states. Yet the ghosts of empires
  past continue to stalk the Earth.

15

• Imperije su oblici politicke kontrole nad
  efektivnim suverenitetom nekih politickih
  drutava koje im namecu druga politicka drutva
  (Majkl Dojl)
• Sve imperije koje su tokom vekova uspostavljene
  imale su tri zajednicka obeleja jedno se
  ocituje u podredivanju, svaka imperija je
  nejednak odnos, pri cemu je jedna strana
  superiorna a druga inferiorna. Drugo se ogleda u
  prinudi. Iako veliki broj imperija ukljucuje i
  saradnju, katkad ekstenzivnu saradnju izmedu onih
  koji vladaju i onih kojima se vlada, iza toga
  odnosa uvek stoji pretnja silom, koja se katkad i
  realizuje, od strane imperije u cilju odravanja
  vlastite kontrole. Trece odredujuce obeleje
  sastoji se u etnickoj, religioznoj ili rasnoj
  razlici ili u nekoj njihovoj kombinaciji
  izemdu imperijalne sile i drutva koje ona
  kontrolie. Imperija je oblik diktature, ali
  osobenog tipa diktature koju sprovode stranci.
• Pojam vlada koji potice od grcke reci za
  krmaniti, stariji je nego termin imperija koji se
  izvodi iz latinske reci komandovati Vlada je
  optiji pojam imperija je samo jedna od mnogih
  oblika vladavine. (Majkl Mandelbaum)
• Naglasak na kvalitetu odnosa izmedu politickih
  jedinica a ne samo na kvantitetu. Imperija moe
  biti i regionalna po svom obimu

16

• Empire is the rule exercised by one nation over
  others both to regulate their external behavior
  and to ensure minimally acceptable forms of
  internal behavior within the subordinate states.
  Merely powerful states do the former, but not the
  latter. (Stephen Peter Rosen)

17

• AN EMPIRE is a multinational or multiethnic state
  that extends its influence through formal and
  informal control of other polities. The Indian
  writer Nirad Chaudhuri put it well "There is no
  empire without a conglomeration of
  linguistically, racially, and culturally
  different nationalities and the hegemony of one
  of them over the rest. The heterogeneity and the
  domination are of the very essence of imperial
  relations. An empire is hierarchical. There may
  be in it, and has been, full or partial freedom
  for individuals or groups to rise from one level
  to another but this has not modified the stepped
  and stratified structure of the organization.
  (Eliot A. Cohen)

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Primacy
19

• Kao posledica rata u Iraku 2003. godine, drugi
  analiticari opisuju medunarodni poredak kao
  Americku svetsku imperiju. Na mnogo nacina
  metafora o imperiji je privlacna. Americka vojska
  ima globalni domaaj, sa bazama irom sveta i
  njihovim regionalnim komandantima koji ponekad
  deluju kao prokonzuli. Engleski je lingua franca
  kao to je to svojevremeno bio Latinski jezik.
  Americka ekonomija je najveca na svetu, a
  americka kultura je magnet drugim kulturama.
  Ipak, pogreno je pomeati politiku prvenstva sa
  politikom imperije. Sjedinjene Americke Drave
  zasigurno nisu imperija na nacin na koji mi
  mislimo o evropskim prekomorskim imperijama iz
  devetnaestog i dvadesetog veka, jer je sutinska
  osobina takvog imperijalizma bila politicka
  kontrola nad ostalim delovima planete. Iako
  odnosi u kojima postoji nejednakost zasigurno
  postoje izmedu Sjedinjenih Drava i slabijih sila
  i lako mogu dovesti do jednog eksploatatorskog
  odnosa sa americke strane, odsustvo formalne
  politicke kontrole nad tim dravama, cini termin
  "imperijalna" ne samo nedovoljno tacnim, nego i
  potpuno pogrenim...

20

• Sjedinjene Americke Drave imaju vie izvora moci
  nego to ih je imala Velika Britanija na vrhuncu
  svoje imperijalne moci, ali Sjedinjene Drave
  imaju manje moci u smislu kontrole nad ponaanjem
  i unutranjom politikom drugih zemalja, nego to
  je to imala Britanija u doba kada je vladala
  cetvrtinom Planete. Na primer, kole u Keniji,
  izbori, proces donoenja zakona i ubiranje poreza
  - da ne pominjemo spoljnu politiku zemlje - bili
  su pod kontrolom britanskih zvanicnika. U
  poredenju sa tim, Sjedinjene Drave imaju malo
  takve kontrole u dananje vreme. Tokom 2003.
  godine Sjedinjene Drave nisu cak uspele da
  zadobiju glasove Meksika i Kine za drugu
  rezoluciju o Iraku u Savetu bezbednosti
  Ujedinjenih Nacija. Analiticari imperije
  odgovaraju da je termin "imperija" samo metafora.
  Ipak, problem sa tom metaforom jeste da ona
  podrazumeva kontrolu iz Vaingtona koja se teko
  uklapa sa sloenim nacinom na koji je moc u svetu
  danas raspodeljena... (Dozef Naj)

21

• The U. S. Position in the current World order is
  best understood as one of primacy. The United
  Stets is not a global hegemon, because it cannot
  physically control the entire globe and thus
  cannot compel other states to do whatever it
  wants Nonetheless, the United States is also
  something more than first among equals If
  primacy is defined as being first in order,
  importance or authority or holding first or
  chief place, then it is an apt description of
  Americas current position. (Stephen M. Walt)

22
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23

• Americans, in short, don't "do" empire they do
  "leadership" instead, or, in more academic
  parlance, "hegemony."
• According to S. Ryan Johansson, the word
  "hegemony" was used originally to describe the
  relationship of Athens to the other Greek
  city-states that joined it in an alliance against
  the Persian Empire. "Hegemony" in this case
  "meant that Athens organized and directed
  their combined efforts without securing permanent
  political power over the others.
• By contrast, according to the "world-system
  theory" of Immanuel Wallerstein, "hegemony" means
  more than mere leadership but less than outright
  empire. A hegemonic power is "a state ... able to
  impose its set of rules on the interstate system,
  and thereby create temporarily a new political
  order." The hegemon also offers "certain extra
  advantages for enterprises located within it or
  protected by it, advantages not accorded by the
  'market' but obtained through political pressure."

24

• Yet another, narrower definition is offered by
  Geoffrey Pigman. Pigman describes a hegemon's
  principal function as underwriting a liberal
  international trading system that is beneficial
  to the hegemon but, paradoxically, even more
  beneficial to its potential rivals. Pigman traces
  this now widely used definition of the word back
  to the economic historian Charles Kindleberger's
  seminal work on the interwar economy, which
  describes a kind of "hegemonic interregnum."
  After 1918, Kindleberger suggested, the United
  Kingdom was too weakened by war to remain an
  effective hegemon, but the United States was
  still too inhibited by protectionism and
  isolationism to take over the role. This idea,
  which became known, somewhat inelegantly, as
  "hegemonic stability theory," was later applied
  to the post-1945 period by authors such as Arthur
  Stein, Susan Strange, Henry Nau, and Joseph Nye.

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1.2. The Foundations of American Primacy
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• By virtually any measure, the United States
  enjoys an asymmetry of power unseen since the
  emergence of the modern states system. Some
  leading powers in the past had gained an
  advantage in one dimension or another for
  example, in 1850 Great Britain controlled about
  70 percent of Europes Wealth, while the number
  two power, France, controlled only 16 percent
  but the United States is the only Great Power in
  modern history to establish a clear lead in
  virtually every important dimension of power

28

• The United States has the worlds largest
  economy, an overwhelming military advantage, a
  dominant position in key international
  institutions, and far reaching cultural and
  ideological influence. Moreover, these advantages
  are magnified by a favorable geopolitical
  position. If primacy is defined as being first
  in order, importance or authority or holding
  first or chief place, then it is an apt
  description of Americas current position.
  (Stephen M. Walt)

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1.2.1. Economic Dominance
30

• Economic strength as foundation of national power
• The United States has been blessed with the
  worlds largest for over a century
• The U.S. share of global production ballooned to
  nearly 50 percent after World War II reflecting
  the damage that other countries suffered during
  the war and then gradually declined as the rest
  of the world recovered. Nevertheless, it has
  hovered between 25 and 30 percent from the 1960
  to the present, and the U. S. Economy is still
  the roughly 60 percent larger than its nearest
  rival, Japan.
• The U. S. Economy is also more diverse and
  self-sufficient than other major economic powers,
  making it less vulnerable to the unexpected
  economic shifts
• Although the United States is more dependent on
  the outside world than it was a generation ago,
  it still depends far less on others than they
  depend on it

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• In 2000, for example, only three countries had
  lower ratios of trade to gross domestic product
  (GDP) than the United States, and only one of
  them was a major military power. with
  Argentina, Brazil and Japan
• For example, Chinese exports to the United States
  were a whopping 5 percent of Chinese GDP (19
  percent of total Chinese exports) and critical to
  Chinese economic growth. U. S. exports to China,
  by contrast, were a mere 0. 16 percent of U. S.
  GDP

34

• A state can be wealthy without being powerful, of
  course think of Brunei, Kuwait, or Switzerland
  but it is impossible to be a Great Power
  without a large diverse economy. In particular, a
  strong economy enables a state to create and
  equip a powerful military force.

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1.2.2. Military Supremacy Command of the Commons
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• Today the United States is not only the world s
  foremost economic power it is the dominant
  military power as well
• While Americas military economic advantages are
  manifold, its military lead is simply
  overwhelming.
• U. S. Defense expenditures in 2003 were nearly 40
  percent of the global total and almost seven
  times larger than that of the number two power
  (China). To put it another way, U. S. Defense
  spending was equal to the amount spent on defense
  by the next thirteen countries combined.
• The United States also spends more to keep itself
  in the vanguard of military technology. The U. S.
  Department of Defense now spends over 50 billion
  dollars annually for research, development,
  testing, and evaluation, an amount larger than
  the entire defense budget of Germany, Great
  Britain, France, Russia, Japan or China

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• The United States deployed more than 500 000
  troops in the Persian Gulf for Operations Desert
  Shield and Desert Storm mobilized substantial
  air, ground, and naval forces in Kosovo in 1999,
  and in Afghanistan in 2001 and then deployed
  more than 180 000 troops and other personnel to
  topple Saddam Hussein in 2003.
• Over - Sea power projection capabilities

40

• The United States has the largest and most
  sophisticated arsenal of strategic nuclear
  weapons, and it is the only country with global
  power projection capability, stealth aircraft, a
  large arsenal of precision guided munitions, and
  integrated surveillance, reconnaissance, and
  command-and-control capabilities.

41
Command of the Commons- Military foundation
of U. S. Hegemony
42

• One pillar of U.S. hegemony is the vast military
  power of the United States.
• The U.S. military currently possesses command of
  the global commons. Command of the commons is
  analogous to command of the sea, or in Paul
  Kennedys words, it is analogous to naval
  mastery. The commons, in the case of the sea
  and space, are areas that belong to no one state
  and that provide access to much of the globe.
  Airspace does technically belong to the countries
  below it, but there are few countries that can
  deny their airspace above 15,000 feet to U.S.
  warplanes. Command does not mean that other
  states cannot use the commons in peacetime. Nor
  does it mean that others cannot acquire military
  assets that can move through or even exploit them
  when unhindered by the United States. Command
  means that the United States gets vastly more
  military use out of the sea, space, and air than
  do others that it can credibly threaten to deny
  their use to others and that others would lose a
  military contest for the commons if they
  attempted to deny them to the United States.
  Having lost such a contest, they could not mount
  another effort for a very long time, and the
  United States would preserve, restore, and
  consolidate its hold after such a fight.

43

• Command of the commons is the key military
  enabler of the U.S. global power position. It
  allows the United States to exploit more fully
  other sources of power, including its own
  economic and military might as well as the
  economic and military might of its allies.
• Command of the commons also helps the United
  States to weaken its adversaries, by restricting
  their access to economic, military, and political
  assistance. Command of the commons has permitted
  the United States to wage war on short notice
  even where it has had little permanent military
  presence. This was true of the 1991 Persian Gulf
  War, the 1993 intervention in Somalia, and the
  2001 action in Afghanistan.

44
Command Of The Sea
45

• U.S. nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) are perhaps
  the key assets of U.S. open ocean antisubmarine
  warfare (ASW) capability, which in turn is the
  key to maintaining command of the sea.
• At more than 1 billion each (more than 2
  billion each for the new U.S. SSN), modern
  nuclear submarines are prohibitively expensive
  for most states. Aside from the United States,
  Britain, China, France, and Russia are the only
  other countries that can build them, and China is
  scarcely able. Several partially built nuclear
  attack submarines remained in Russian yards in
  the late 1990s, but no new ones have been laid
  down. Perhaps 2030 Russian nuclear attack
  submarines remain in service. Currently, the U.S.
  Navy has 54 SSNs in service and 4 under
  construction.

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• The U.S. Navy also dominates the surface of the
  oceans, with 12 aircraft carriers (9 nuclear
  powered) capable of launching high-performance
  aircraft.
• In Saturday, October 7, 2006, George H. W. Bush
  13th U. S. aircraft carrier, Nimitz class,
  nuclear powered - was christened.

49

• The Carrier Mission is- To provide a credible,
  sustainable, independent forward presence and
  conventional deterrence in peacetime,- To
  operate as the cornerstone of joint/allied
  maritime expeditionary forces in times of crisis,
  and- To operate and support aircraft attacks on
  enemies, protect friendly forces and engage in
  sustained independent operations in war. 

50

• The Soviet Union was just building its first true
  aircraft carrier when its political system
  collapsed. Aside from France, which has 1, no
  other country has any nuclear-powered aircraft
  carriers. At 5 billion apiece for a single U.S.
  Nimitz-class nuclearpowered aircraft carrier,
  this is no surprise.

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• Moreover, the U.S. Navy operates for the Marine
  Corps a feet of a dozen large helicopter/VSTOL
  carriers, each almost twice the size of the Royal
  Navys comparable (3 ship) Invincible class. To
  protect its aircraft carriers and amphibious
  assets, the U.S. Navy has commissioned 37 Arleigh
  - Burkeclass destroyers since 1991billion-dollar
  multimission platforms capable of antiair,
  antisubmarine, and land-attack missions in
  high-threat environments.
• 24 This vessel is surely the most capable surface
  combatant in the world.

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Command Of The Air
58

• and electronic intelligence aircraft allows the
  U.S military to achieve the suppression of enemy
  air defenses (SEAD) limit the effectiveness of
  enemy radars, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and
  fighters and achieve the relatively safe
  exploitation of enemy skies above 15,000 feet.
  Cheap and simple air defense weapons, such as
  antiaircraft guns and shoulderred lightweight
  SAMs, are largely ineffective at these altitudes.
  Yet at these altitudes aircraft can deliver
  precision-guided munitions with great accuracy
  and lethality, if targets have been properly
  located and identified.

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Command of the Space
63

• Though the United States is not yet committed to
  actual combat in or from space, it spends vast
  amounts on reconnaissance, navigation, and
  communications satellites.
• These satellites provide a standing
  infrastructure to conduct military operations
  around the globe.

64

• the United States had 100 military satellites and
  150 commercial satellites in space in 2001,
  nearly half of all the active satellites in
  space.
• According to Air Force Lt. Gen. T. Michael
  Moseley, air component commander in the U.S.-led
  invasion of Iraq in March 2003, more than 50
  satellites supported land, sea, and air
  operations in every aspect of the campaign.

65

• For fiscal years 200207, the Pentagon plans to
  spend 165 billion on space-related activities.
• The NAVSTAR/GPS (global positioning system)
  constellation of satellites, designed and
  operated by the U.S. military but now widely
  utilized for civilian purposes, permits highly
  precise navigation and weapons guidance anywhere
  in the world. Full exploitation of GPS by other
  military and civilian users is permitted
  electronically by the United States, but this
  permission is also electronically revocable. It
  will not be easy for others to produce a
  comparable system, though the European Union
  intends to try. GPS cost 4.2 billion (in 1979
  prices) to bring to completion, significantly
  more money than was originally projected.

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• Hoewer, below 15,000 feet, within several hundred
  kilometers of the shore, and on the land, a
  contested zone awaits United States. The U.S.
  military hopes that it can achieve the same
  degree of dominance in this zone as it has in the
  commons, though this is unlikely to happen.

69
1.2.3. Institutional Influence
70

• The norms and rules that govern these
  institutions will prevent any single state (or
  group of states) from controlling them
  completely, yet the United States plays a unique
  role in the most important global organizations.
• UN
• WTO
• NATO
• 22 percent of UN budget

71

• Who determines agenda of something, he is
  powerful
• IMF, World bank
• The record of landing from both institutions
  strongly supports a pattern of U. S. interests
  and preferences

72
1.2.4. Cultural and Ideological Impact
73

• Another key advantage for the United States is
  its ability to shape the preferences of others
  to make them want what America wants through
  the inherent attractiveness of U. S. culture,
  ideology and institutions.
• The soft power is remains hard to define or
  measure, but there is a little doubt that the
  United States casts a long cultural and
  ideological shadow over the rest of the world.
• English as a lingua franca
• American University system as a potent mechanism
  for socializing foreign elites

74

• Nearly 600 000 foreign students at American
  universities in 2002/2003
• If there is a global civilization, it is
  American. Nor is it just McDonalds and
  Hollywood, it is also Microsoft and Harvard.
  Wealthy Romans used to send their children to
  Greek Universities todays Greeks, that is, the
  Europeans, send their kids to Roman, that is,
  American Universities.
• As of 2004, the top twenty five highest-grossing
  films of all times were U. S. productions
• American consumer products and brand names are
  ubiquitous
• Free market and democratic governance become a
  world model
• American way of life as a world way of life

75
1.2.5. The Blessing of Geography
76

• Economic, military, institutional and cultural
  dominance may define U. S. Primacy, but its
  geopolitical situation is the icing on the cake.
• The United States is the only Power in the
  Western Hemisphere, and it is physically
  separated from the other major powers by two
  enormous oceanic moats

77

• America is blessed among the nations. On the
  north, she had a weak neighbor on the south,
  another weak neighbor on the east fish, and the
  west, fish (Jules Jusseraud, French Ambassador
  to the U.S., 1925.)
• Because the other major powers lie in close
  proximity to one another, they are inclined to
  worry more about each other than they do about
  the United States.

78

• T?????? ????????? ?????? ?????? ?? ?? ??????,
  ??????? ?????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ???? ??
  ?????? ????????. ?????? ?? ??????? ?? ??????
  ???? ??????? ?????? ????, ??????? (????? ?? ??
  ?????????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ???
  ?????? ? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ?????????),
  ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ???????? ?
  ???????????? ?????? (Stephen M. Walt)

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1.2.6. ????????
81

• ?? ?? ?? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ? ?????? ???
  ????, ?? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ?????????? ???? ????
  ? ?????????, ??? ??????????? ?? ???????? ?? ??
  ???? ?????? ???????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?? ??.
  (??? ??????, ??????? ???????????????? ?????)

82

• Drugi problem tice se odredivanja koji resursi
  pruaju najbolju osnovu za moc u nekom odredenom
  kontekstu. Resursi moci uvek zavise od konteksta.
  Tenkovi nisu tako dobri u mocvarama u
  devetnaestom veku uranijum nije bio resurs moci.
  U ranijim razdobljima ljudske istorije bilo je
  lake suditi o vrednosti izvora moci. (Dozef
  Naj)

83
?????? ?????? ????

• ??? ?????? ?? ?????????
• ????????? ??????? ????
• The second face of power

84

• ??? ?????? ?? ?????????
• ????????? ??????? ????
• The second face of power

85
1.3. ????????
86

• U globalnom informatickom dobu, moc je medu
  dravama raspodeljena po obrascu koji podseca na
  sloenu trodimenzionalnu ahovsku tablu, na kojoj
  se igra odvija i horizontalno i vertikalno. Na
  vrhu ahovske table gde su politicko-vojna
  pitanja, vojna moc je uglavnom unipolarna sa
  Sjedinjenim Dravama kao jedinom supersilom, ali
  u sredini table gde su ekonomska pitanja,
  Sjedinjene Drave nisu hegemon ili imperija, i
  moraju da se cenjkaju sa Evropom sa jednakih
  pozicija kada Evropa deluje kao ujedinjena
  celina. Na primer, povodom antimonopolskih ili
  pitanja koja se odnose na privredu, one moraju
  naci kompromis, da bi postigle sporazum. I na dnu
  table transnacionalnih odnosa koji prelaze
  granice van kontrole vlada drava i tako
  ukljucuju raznovrsne aktere kao to su bankari i
  teroristi, moc se haoticno rasprava. Uzmimo kao
  dodatak pitanjima terorizma samo nekoliko
  primera privatni akteri na globalnom tritu
  kapitala ogranicavaju nacin na koji se kamatne
  stope mogu koristiti za upravljanje americkom
  ekonomijom, a trgovina droge, AIDS, migracija
  stanovnitva, i globalno zagrevanje koji imaju
  duboke drutvene korene u vie od jedne zemlje,
  izvan su kontrole americkih vlasti. U takvoj
  jednoj situaciji cini se da nema ba puno smisla
  koristiti tradicionalne termine poput
  unipolarnost, hegemonija ili imperija s ciljem da
  se opiu takvi problemi. (Dozef Naj)

87
?? ?? ??????? ???? ? ???? ?? ???? ???????
?????????

• T?? ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ????????? ????????
  ?????? ????? ?????????, ? ??? ? ???? ??
  ??????????? ????????? ??? ????? ?? ???????
  ??????? ????????. ????? ???????? ?????? ??
  ??????? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????,
  ????????? ???????? ? ???????? ????? (????? ?? ??
  ????? ???????????????? ????? ??????????? ?? ????
  ????? ? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????).
• ?? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? 1920. ?????? (?
  ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ? ?????) ????? ??????
  ??????? ?? 23 ?????????? ?????, ????? ?????
  ?????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? 210 ???????.
  ??????? ???? ? ???? ?? ?????????? ?????? ???????
  ???? ?????? ???? (??? ????? ???? ???? ??????????
  ?????? 15 ? 24. ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??????????),
  ??? ?? ??????? ? ????, ????? ??, ?? ???
  ??????????? ?? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ??
  ????? ????????? ????? ???????? ????????????.

88

• ??????, ?? ????? ?? ?? ???? ?????????? ???? ?
  ??????????, ??? ? ???????? ?????????? ????????
  ????????? ??? ????? ???????? ?????????? ???
  ????????? ? ?????????? ????????? (?????? ?? ?? ??
  ? ???????? ???? ??????), ??????? ???? ?????? ??
  ????? 45 000 ????????? ??????, ?????? ??????
  ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ????? ????????? ?
  ??????????? ??? ????????? ? ???? ??? ?? ????
  ??????? ???????.

89

• ????? ?????????? ??????????? ?????? ?????
  ??????????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ?????
  (Associated Press- Ipsos poll), ???? 6 ?? 10
  ??????????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ? ???? ??
  ????? ??????? (????? ?? ?? ???????????? ?????? ??
  11. ????????? 2001 ????. ?. ?.), ???????? ??
  ??? ?????? ?? ?? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????????
  ?????????, ??? 6 ?? 10 ?????????? ?????? ?? ??
  ??? ? ????? ????????? ???? ??? ???? ?????????????
  ?????????... ??????, ? ??? (Pew) ???????????
  ????????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ?????? ?? ??????
  ????? ?? ?? ????? ???????? ?? ?????????????
  ?????? ?? ????????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ??
  ?????? ??? ?? ?? ????? ???????? ????? ????????? ?
  ????????????, ??? ?????????? ????? ??????? ?
  ?????? ?? ?????? ??????????? ?? 2002. ??????.

90

• ??????? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ?????? ?????????? ????
  ? ?o???????? (?????? ?????)
• Myth of Empire (Myths of Security Through
  Expansion) OFFENSIVE ADVANTAGE, POWER SHIFTS,
  PAPER TIGER ENEMIES, BANDWAGONS , BIG STICK
  DIPLOMACY, FALLING DOMINOES, EL DORADO AND
  MANIFEST DESTINY, NO TRADEOFFS, - Jack L. Snyder

-
91

• Nacionalizam kao rak rana imperija
• Imperije su icezle zato to su postale preskupe
  (Majkl Mandelbaum)
• Hierarchy is usually costly. Dominant states can
  offer concessions to induce subordinates to give
  up their valued freedom. The Soviet Union
  rejected this course, at first, electing to
  extract resources from Eastern Europe rather than
  share its benefits from cooperation. Indeed, by
  one estimate, Moscow withdrew nearly 1 billion
  per year from the region until 1956. By the late
  1950s, however, the flow of resources reversed,
  and by the 1980s the Soviet Union was subsidizing
  Eastern Europe to a total of about 17 billion
  per year. (David Lake)

92

• ??????????????? ?????? (Fareed Zakaria)
• ?????????? ????????? 2001. ??? ?? ????????
  ??????? ? ???????? ???????? ???? (Power
  Politics). ?????????? ????????, ?? ????? ????
  ???? ???? ??????? ??????????, ?? ????????
  ???????????? ??????????, ??????? ?? ?????????? ?
  ?????????? ????????????? ??????? ???? ? ?????? ?
  ?????? ??????? ? ????? ????????? ?????.
• ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ???? ????
  ?????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ???? ???????
  ??????????. ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ???????
  ????????? ???? ?? ?????? ?? ???????????? ???? ??
  ??????? ???? ??? ???? ???????? ?????????
  ??????????. (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

93

• A?????? ????? ????? ????? ??????????? ???????????
  ???? ?? ?????? ????????? ????????, ?? ???? ??
  ?????????? ???? ???? ????? ???? ????????
  ?????????? ?????????, ???? ??? ?? ?? ??? ??????
  ?? ??????? ???????????? ????,?. ? ?????? ??
  ????????? ?? ????? ? ???????????? ?? ??????????
  ?? ???? ?????????? ?????? ?????.
• ???? ?? ?????????? ??????? ?? ???? ? ??????
  ?????????? ?????? (??????? ?????????)
• ???????? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ???????
  ????????? ?? ???? ????? (????? ???)
• ???? ?? ?? ??????? ????????? ???????????

94

• As we work our way through this seemingly
  intractable problem in Iraq, we must constantly
  remember that this is not just a troublesome
  issue form which we can walk away if it seems too
  costly to continue. What is at stake is not only
  Iraq and the stability of the Middle East, but
  the global perception of the reliability of the
  United States as a partner in a deeply troubled
  world. We cannot afford to fail this test And
  this is why America cant just walk away. (Brent
  Scowcroft, The International herald Tribune,
  Thursday, January 4, 2007, p. 6)

95
However, if the United States was not an Empire,
then what was it?(Niall Ferguson)

• What to do with Power, the question is now end,
  everand, forever

96
II ????????? ????? ???? ?????? ????????
????? ??????
97
Power resources of the Major U. S. contenders,
2007
98
(No Transcript)
99
??? ????????
100
(No Transcript)
101
III ???? ?? ???? 21. ????
102

• ?? ?? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ? ???????? ????????
  ?????????? (??????? ?????????)
• ???????? ? ???????????? ????
• ?? ?? ?? ????? ? ??? ??????? ???? ????? ???
  ???????
• ??? ?? ???????? ???????????
• The 21st Century World as a World Without Power?
  (Niall Ferguson)
• ??? ????????

103
IV ??????????

• Pol Kenedi, Uspon i pad velikih sila, CID
  Podgorica, Slubeni List SRJ, Beograd, 1999
• Barry R. Posen, Command of the CommonsThe
  Military Foundation of U. S. Hegemony,
  International Security, Vol. 28, No. 1, Summer
  2003, pp. 5 46.
• Niall Ferguson, Colossus The Price of Americas
  Empire, The Penguin Press, New York, 2004
• David Held, Mathias Koenig Archibugi, Eds.,
  American Power in the 21st Century, Polity Press,
  Cambridge, UK, 2003
• Stephen M. Walt, Taming American Power The
  Global Response to American Primacy, W. W.
  Norton, New York, 2005
• Thomas P. M. Barnett, The Pentagons New Map,
  in Paul J. Bolt, Damon V. Colletta, Collings G.
  Shackelford, Jr., American Defense Policy, The
  Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and
  London, 2005, Eight Edition, pp. 66-69
• Barry Buzan, Ole Waever, Regions and Powers The
  Structure of International Security, Cambridge
  University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2003
• Robert D. Kaplan, Imperial Grunts the American
  Military on the Ground, Random House, New York,
  2005
• http//www.navy.mil/navydata/our_ships.asp
• William C. Wohlforth, U. S. Strategy in a
  Unipolar World, in G. John Ikenberry, Ed.,
  America Unrivaled The Future of the Balance of
  Power, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY,
  2002, pp. 98 -118. (osobito grafikoni na stranama
  105, 111, 112
• Charles Crauthammer, Unipolar moment, Foreign
  Affairs, Winter 1990/1991, pp. 23-33.
• David Held, Mathias Koenig Archibugi,
  Introduction Whither American Power?, in
  David Held, Mathias Koenig Archibugi, Eds.,
  American Power in the 21st Century, Polity Press,
  Cambridge, UK, 2003, pp. 1- 20
• Niall Ferguson, Colossus The Price of Americas
  Empire, The Penguin Press, New York, 2004, pp.
  1-29
• Stephen M. Walt, Taming American Power The
  Global Response to U. S. Primacy, W. W. Norton,
  New York, 2005, pp. 11 61
• Charles Krauthammer, The Unipolar Moment
  Revisited, The National Interest, Winter
  2002/03, pp. 5 17
• Niall Ferguson, A World Without Power, Foreign
  Policy, July / August 2004, pp. 32 -39
• Michael Mandelbaum, Davids Friend Goliath,
  Foreign Policy, January / February 2006, pp. 50
  56
• Niall Ferguson, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Going
  Critical American Power and the Consequences of
  Fiscal Overstertch, The National Interest, Fall
  2003, pp. 22- 32.
• Brian Knowlton, In America, a Day to reflect on
  impact of 9/11, International Herald Tribune,
  Tuesday, September 12, 2006, p. 4.

104
????? ?? ?????