Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020: Implications for Tourism Management

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Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020Implications
for Tourism Management

• Paolo Grigolli
• Bucharest, 5 JUNE 2012

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Issues supporting Sustainable Tourism

• What form will tourism take in the future?
• What will be the implications for tourism
  stakeholders?

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topics

• identify the major economic, political, social,
  environmental, and technological forces driving
  global change to 2020
• explore the implications for managers in the
  private and public sectors to develop tourism in
  a sustainable way

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World Tourism Organisation Tourism Forecasts to
2020

• International tourism will continue to boom in
  the 21st century
• increasing to almost 1.6 billion in 2020
• this is 2.5 times the volume recorded in the late
  1990s
• Annual average growth rate in international
  tourist arrivals is 4.1 per cent a year
• well above the maximum probable expansion of
  around 3 per cent per year in the worlds wealth

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Emerging Destinations and Origins

• Principal new international destinations include
• China, Vietnam and Mekong River countries
• the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and
  Latin America
• Emerging Origin markets include
• the new economic powerhouses of Asia (China,
  Korea, Taiwan, India and Malaysia)
• large population countries - Indonesia, Brazil,
  Argentina, Mexico, and, to some extent, the
  Eastern European countries
• Domestic tourism is playing a predominant role.
• for the OECD area, domestic tourism consumption
  accounts for about 75 of tourism consumption
  within the zone

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OECD Countries

• In 2009, OECD countries still accounted for 57
  of international tourist arrivals and for 67 of
  the corresponding travel receipts. However, OECD
  countries are losing market share
• During the last 20 years, the growth rate of
  tourism arrivals in OECD countries has averaged
  2.8 per year, well ahead of the GDP growth rate
  of 2.4 for the zone
• In the OECD area, the employment growth rate in
  the tourism industry exceeded 2 per year between
  2000 and 2009, more than a percentage point ahead
  of the total employment growth rate

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Global Trends Affecting Tourism

• We identify 5 key global trends
• Globalization and long term economic trends
• Political trends
• Social trends
• Environment, Resources and Energy Trends
• Changes in Technology

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Influence of Megatrends on Tourism
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Globalization and Long term Economic Trends

• six factors that drive globalization, economic
  dynamism and growth
• political pressures for higher living standards
• improved macroeconomic policies
• deregulation/liberalisation of international
  trade
• rising trade and investment
• diffusion of information technology
• increasingly dynamic private sectors

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Trends and opportunities

• Leisure and vacation travel dominates
• Leisure is by far the most important purpose of
  visit (gt50 of arrivals).
• Tendency towards shorter stays
• The shrinking duration of tourist trips is
  closely linked to changing lifestyles and
  developments in the means of transport.
• Online reservations continue to rise
• In many countries more than 25 of individuals
  have booked travel or accommodation on the
  Internet.
• SMEs play an important role
• In the hotel, restaurant and travel agencies
  sectors, SMEs are responsible for at least 70 of
  employment in nearly all OECD countries.

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Political Trends

• the gap between the haves and have-nots will
  widen unless the have-not countries pursue
  policies that support application of new
  technologies
• good governance
• universal education
• market reforms

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Some Political Influences

• Destinations that are perceived to be less safe
  and secure will be avoided by tourists
• Enclave tourism strategies need to be re-examined
  (risk management)
• Globalisation Vs Localisation
• Modernity Vs Identity

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Environment, Resources, Energy Trends

• climate change
• higher temperatures
• ozone depletion
• sea level rise
• loss of snow cover and permafrost
• glacial melt in the polar regions
• extreme weather events, precipitation and
  hydrological changes
• natural resource depletion (energy, water)
• land-use changes (deforestation and
  desertification, salinity)
• changes in biodiversity (species loss)

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Some Environmental Influences on Tourism

• Tourism both contributes to and is affected by
  climate change
• Natural environments and climate will influence
  which destinations will be preferred by tourists
• Climate change impacts on the profitability of
  the industry through increasing temperatures,
  energy and water use and increasing needs for
  adaptation
• Government policies will affect operator costs
• Long haul destinations are particularly affected
• Diminishing supplies of energy will impact on
  fuel costs, affecting transport costs and tourism
  flows

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Social Trends

• Population and Ageing
• Urbanisation
• Changing Social Structures
• Health
• Aspirations and Expectations
• Values and Lifestyles
• Changing Work Patterns
• Gender
• Education

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Social Influences on Tourism

• Money rich-time poor. Leisure time has become an
  increasingly scarce commodity
• Individualism. Tourist behavior is becoming
  driven by a desire for customisation (hedonism)
• Self improvement. As more material needs are
  satisfied tourists seek newer, richer, deeper,
  authentic experiences
• Seeking value for money. The internet has lead to
  more knowledgeable consumers who seek best value
  for money and time

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Social Influences on Tourism

• Experimental. New tourists are extremely
  experimental, willing to try new products, foods
  and attractions, but too impatient to give a
  second chance to products or service that fail to
  satisfy initially
• Safety conscious. Safety issues are becoming
  increasingly important
• Social and Environmental Concern. Tourists are
  becoming more aware of political, social and
  environmental issues for different destinations
  (tipping points)
• Good service. The tourist marketing battle is
  shifting from competitive pricing to service
  improvement

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Technological Change

• Two areas of change IT and Transport
• Technology is the foremost management tool for
  successful performance and competitive advantage
  in the new business operating environment

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Technological Influences

• Database management systems allow response to
  individual preferences to stimulate tourism
• New technologies give tourists more control over
  how they spend their time and money
• New technology is improving the speed and comfort
  and reducing the real cost of travel
• All aspects of tourism and hospitality
  organizations in all sectors are being
  dramatically changed by new technology
• The tourism industry generally has not taken an
  active role in developing or adapting new
  technology
• Despite the proliferation of new technology, the
  industry is often reluctant to adopt new methods
  and tools

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Effects

• Taken together, these drivers and trends set the
  context in which the global tourism industry may
  be expected to develop to 2020
• No single driver or trend will dominate the
  global future
• Each driver will have varying impacts in
  different regions and countries
• In some cases, these trends work at
  cross-purposes

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Challenges

• Integrate tourism into wider development strategy
• Raise participation of local citizens and private
  decision makers in tourism development
• Better define and promote competitive tourism
  assets
• Improve internal mobility and external
  accessibility
• Better define tourist targets new products for
  specific niches
• Better branding of Rumania and its region
• Foster education and training for the tourism
  sector
• Foster the introduction and use of ICT in the
  industry
• Develop an evaluation framework of tourism and
  local development policy

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Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020Implications
for Tourism Management

• Multumesc!
• Paolo Grigolli